International News

An oil close to $ 100

Oil markets have returned to their highest in the summer of last week. In New York, a barrel of light sweet crude for December delivery ended the week and to 93.32 dollars, pocketing 11.5% in five days, while in London, Brent crude gained 4% over the same period at 110.02 dollars. These levels were no longer observed since last August.

This surge is due to the euphoria that followed the agreement on a plan to end the crisis in Europe. As the equity markets, the announcements of European leaders were welcomed by a jump in current operators rejecting the idea of ​​"economic calamity," said John Kilduff, of Again Capital. In addition, China's second largest consumer of oil in the world, issued a manufacturing PMI at highest level in five months.U.S. GDP also rose by 2.5% yoy in the third quarter and increased consumer spending by American households has accelerated in September to 0.6%. Another factor is bullish: "There are investors who claim that the Americans withdraw from Iraq, it will add to the volatility in the Middle East. It was also the new regime in Libya during a test, "noted Rich Ilczyszyn, MF Global no faxing payday loans.

The higher prices could have been even stronger if there had been publishing a weekly report on bad stocks Wednesday. Surprised, analysts questioned the causes of such weekly increase, especially imports have continued to slow in recent weeks. Phil Flynn, analyst at PFG Best Research, put forward a hypothesis: "the oil accelerated their pace to arrive before the hurricane Rina.The metal was also supported by the ongoing tensions in the global supply. Thus, the American Freeport-McMoRan said Wednesday the "force majeure" for its Grasberg mine in Indonesia (site producing between 3% and 4% of world supply), paralyzed from mid-September by a violent strike.

Aluminium was supported by a decline in world stocks (5% in September, its lowest level since December). The course is finished in 2221 dollars per tonne (3.6% for the week). Tin is always paid by the interruption of exports from Indonesia (30% of world production of tin), decided in early October by domestic producers in order to trace the course. The stocks of this metal on the LME have since decreased by 21%. Classes end at 21,870 dollars (0.55%).

The draft budget for 2012 Social Security will be voted on Wednesday by the House, before leaving the Senate. But a detailed examination of the text was to end Friday night. The Assembly amended several key points … until they know the consequences of the revision to 1% of projected growth. Lack of knowledge, "the dice are loaded," protested the Socialist Marisol Touraine. The rapporteur of the text, Yves Bur (UMP), was estimated at 1.5 billion shortfall, the government does not confirm.

Half a solution for excess fees

MEPs adopted an amendment to try to remedy the excess fees excessive. They left until the end of January to physicians, the social security and complementary health for themselves conclude this endless soap opera.

These doctors are the "fall guy," said Yves Bur UMP. Xavier Bertrand has promised, without further detail, to consider their case, "that they are not satisfied with a handshake." The Minister of Health has recognized, with several members of the left and right, that the real problem was the insufficient appreciation rates Safely surgeons for years low fee cash advance. But open the sector a future system would have displeased the French Mutuality and part of the majority. The Bloc, the majority among specialists involved, says it is ready to discuss, exchange, regulation of excess fees in sector 2.

Abandonment of the CSG on parental leave

The idea was unanimously against it: the government has decided not to submit to a CSG 6.2% of compensation paid in case of parental leave.And are defrauded to the detriment of social organizations will be excluded from debt cancellation plans in case of insolvency.

Cooling-off period on sick leave benefits

The government had reduced by 6% allowances of sick leave, saving 220 million. Outcry, including the right, Yves Bur proposed an alternative: a fourth day waiting period before paying those benefits. It would cost to low-wage "twenty euros, once a stop, instead of 30 or 40 euros a month," he said. People in long illness would be less penalized, unlike those that increase stops short. Xavier Bertrand has promised to think about before the final vote of the text.

"The euro is a rock against the crisis. "This declaration of Gylfi Arnbjornsson, President of Iceland's largest union, released in turmoil in the euro area, out of place. "While a small floating national currency increases the flexibility and affects employees," he insists. Bryndis, she does not believe more in the EU and the euro area. "It does not work. The crown, however, allowed us to emerge quickly from the crisis, "said the young woman, who works in a bookstore, very committed to the sovereignty of his country. These two strong views illustrate the gap between pro-and anti-Europe.

Iceland began on June 27 last formal negotiations to enter the European Union. At the end, Icelanders will vote in a referendum.The challenge for the small island in the far north that is just three years of severe recession, is to join the single currency.

The debate in Reykjavik is far from settled, including the center-left coalition government, like the Minister of Economy Social Democratic supporter of the euro and its counterpart of Finance defends the virtues of the crown.

"The devaluation of over 40% has boosted the competitiveness of our exports. The gain exceeds the final cost. Unemployment would have been much worse, "says Green Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson. With two key economic sectors: aluminum and fishing account for 80% of exports. In this land swept by the waters and winds so imposing nature, the farm lobby and fishing make their voices heard. They reject the decisions of Brussels and its quotas.Yet, in fact, Iceland is already integrated into the European Union.

The case "Icesave" three years ago that poisons relations with Great Britain and the Netherlands also maintained Euroscepticism. The State has spent 15% of GDP to save its national banks but refused to compensate the foreign customers of the bank Icesave, bankruptcy. An early decision of the European Court of Justice could force Reykjavik to set the slate of 8 billion euros. "The bank Landsbanki has the means to repay by selling its assets revalued since the crisis," said the minister.

Indebtedness

Three years to regain control of the IMF, the economy drastically, radical restructuring of the banks have put the country on track for growth, helped by a crown devalued no faxing pay day loans.In the field, if the maintenance of a welfare state and the strength of social ties, related to the geography of the place and its small population, have reduced the impact, the crisis is far from over. Reflecting Hildigunnur Sverrisdottir, 35, architect, married with three children. "We are living a nightmare, every month, our debts pile up, we have no visibility and perspective," she confesses.

This family alone synthesizes all the symptoms of the crisis Iceland: Hidlig lost his job after the explosion of the housing bubble, the couple bought a house at full price. They chose a loan in foreign currency – yen, Swiss franc and euro – more attractive as deemed stable and offering lower interest rates. This not to mention local specificity to index mortgages on inflation, which reached its highest, 18%.Result, many Icelanders have seen the value of their loans soar. "In my generation, everyone has lost an average of 10 million crowns," says Hubert Koziet, who suffered a pay cut and an increase of one third of its credit.

Unable to repay their credit, Hidlig and her husband were offered a government program, reserved for owners 13 .500, which is to cap credit 110% of the value of the dwelling and convert crown. "We do not know what to do, we are still negotiating with our bank, we do not rule out leaving the country. Many of our friends, architect, engineer, accountant … went to Denmark and the United States. "

Counter the brain drain and attract new investment, are the future challenges for sustainable growth in Iceland. Because the economy remains crippled by capital controls and political instability.Ironically, today is not money that is lacking in the small island – banks are full of capital that the Icelanders and businesses could exfiltrer abroad – but it suffers from a lack of confidence in the future and the political elites.

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Meanwhile Cannes … The G20 finance ministers, held Friday and Saturday in Paris, was aimed to prove once again to the European partners that it was at the bedside of the crisis currently affecting the area, but also to mark the stage for the G20 heads of state to be held in early November on the Croisette.

This Saturday, the central bankers have therefore agreed to support and rebalance the global economy in a context of heightened tensions, and lead coordinated policies in the short and long term."Advanced countries will adopt, taking into account their respective national circumstances, policies to strengthen the confidence and support growth and implement measures clear, credible and targeted to rebalance public finances," it said in the final communiqué.

While in the coming days, the United States should "clarify" their budgetary consolidation measures and China commit to "rebalance" its growth engines, the Europeans themselves have promised to respond "comprehensive and sustainable "to the debt crisis that mine. In this context, the results of the European Summit of 23 October will be "decisive," assured on Saturday the Minister of Economy, Baroin, who chaired the summit.The G20 ministers expect indeed a "comprehensive plan" that will "provide an aggressive response to current challenges."

All topics to be discussed in Brussels at the EU summit and then to Cannes and is listed in the press release.If the finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 welcomed the decisions taken in late July to strengthen the powers and capacity of intervention of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), they said to wait for new work to maximize the impact of the fund, and that to "avoid any risk of contagion" from the Greek crisis to other economies.

The warning from Christine Lagarde

On the issue of banks, ministers say they will ensure "that banks have an adequate level of capital and have adequate access to funding to address current risks," while the new haircut on debt of the Greek state held by private creditors will be known on October 23.

The CGT said it was "scandalous" the vote Wednesday night in committee in the Assembly, a provision to relax the modulation of working in a company … following an agreement with the unions. "An employer may require the employee to work 48 hours one week and 10 hours the following week without it being able to challenge" the critical and central Montreuil.

The Ministry of Labour – that supports this section of the bill of UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann on the simplification of the law – has meanwhile another interpretation. "A decision of the Supreme Court provided that a modulation of working time resulting from an agreement with the unions needed to be implemented, the authorization of each employee, reported a near Xavier Bertrand.With this arrangement, such a collective agreement shall not affect the employment contract and may be applied without risk of blocking. "

At the CFDT, the bell sound is different. If the union does not have a problem on the philosophy of the article, it criticizes the wording and lack of precision. "The fact that a collective agreement on the organization of work does not change the contract of employment is rather in the right direction because it legitimizes the agreements with the unions, says Marcel Grignard, the Secretary-General fast payday loan no faxing. Would have had the law specifies the amplitude modulation acceptable.Acter even by collective agreement, a passage of 35 hours to 38 hours a week on the other has a different impact on the lives of employees that decide to make them work at night or the weekend. "

Night work is not affected

Argument dismissed out of hand by the government for that night work or Sunday is the subject of specific provisions in the Labour Code and is therefore outside the scope of the law Warsmann.

For the CFDT, the problem of this law to be voted on first reading Tuesday by deputies, is elsewhere. "It's a catch-all text contains hundreds of articles, and unions have been consulted on those relating to labor law, while many others have an impact on the lives of the employees' discontent Marcel Grignard.The parliamentarians have in fact since 2009 the requirement to seek their views on unions before any bill affecting only the Labour Code. But not on other areas of law.

Having started a rebound on Tuesday, Asian stock markets appear again in the red, concerned the debt crisis in Europe. At the close, the Nikkei declined 1.14% and so on 8518.57 points, against the current Wall Street has ended the session little higher on Tuesday. Markets are awaiting a decision by Beijing to buy-or-no Italian sovereign debt, "China will continue to increase its investments in Europe," said Premier Wen Jiabao, at the opening of the "Summer Forum" Davos in Dalian (north-east) on Wednesday.But he is hopeful that the leaders of major European countries consider their relationship with courage to China a strategic point of view. "

Another new fueling hopes of a crisis: the five emerging BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) should discuss next week the opportunity to help the European Union by increasing their holdings of bonds denominated in euros.

Growth outlook gloomy

On the macroeconomic front, the growth of emerging economies in Asia will be less pronounced than assumed in 2011 and 2012 as a result of a decline in exports to the United States and Europe and high inflation, said on Wednesday a report by the Asian Development Bank.Thus, economic growth in Asia (excluding Australia, New Zealand and Japan) should come out to 7.5% in 2011 and 2012, respectively, against 7.8% and 7.7% estimated in April. As for values, values ​​Japanese exports remain under pressure. Canon Inc. falling 3.64% to 3,310 yen and TDK Corp. of 2.28% to 2828 yen.

Other Asian stock markets follow the downward trend of the Nikkei: The Kospi index in Seoul falling 2.95% to 1759.46 points, the S & P / ASX 200 in Sydney down 1.21% at 4023.50 points, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong 1.34% to 18,775.39 loose points, and the CSI 200 Index of Shanghai down 0.67% to 2702.08 points and the FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index down 0.26% at 2722 , 20 points. Only the BSE Sensex 30 Bombay rose 0.24% to 16,506 points.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was down at 1.36 dollars (-0.30%).Oil prices were also down Wednesday in Asia, markets still worried about the debt crisis in the eurozone and a possible bankruptcy of Greece, analysts said. In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October lost 71 cents to 89.50 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 9 cents to 111.80 dollars. "With the danger hovering over the Greek market, prices are highly volatile, very nervous," said Nick Trevethan, commodities analyst at ANZ Research in Singapore.

After the increase in VAT on the inputs of the theme parks last week, the elimination of rebates on real estate gains promises to be the main divisive issue of the week opens. This provision, very criticized, only affects second homes and rental investment (principal residence remains, as before, exempt from taxes). But it is radical: since August 25, the capital gain on resale is taxed at 32.5%, regardless of the length of detention of the property. Previously, the taxable gain was undergoing a reduction of 10% per year from five years in prison, which made totally exempt from taxes in fifteen years.Delete this reduction is therefore a true revolution that will represent, in 2012, over 2 billion euros in additional revenue for the state budget!

For many members of the Finance Committee, the government was wrong to brutally suppress the abatement system. "This chopper's austerity plan is absurd, asserts the centrist MP Charles de Courson. It will freeze sales. Transfer taxes, which are sitting on real estate transactions and represent a significant tax revenue departments and municipalities, will collapse. "The deputy also fears an increase in under-the-table, in order to limit the most capital gain to report.Many also fear a destabilization of the market for rental investment.

Members of the Finance Committee, under the aegis of their rapporteur UMP Gilles Carrez, have decided to table an amendment that will restore an allowance of 5% per year after five years free online credit report. What can a total exemption from capital gains tax at the end of twenty-five years. They also want to refer to 1 December 2011 or January 1, 2012 implementation of this measure.

But there's a catch: Bercy awaiting the removal of allowances 200 million savings in 2011 and 2.2 billion in 2012. The restoration of a 5% reduction would cost 900 million full year. Aware of the need to preserve public finances, Gilles Carrez proposes to increase the tax on patents."This is a measure anticompétitivité," retorted Bercy where people still say "open to discussion as long as the deficit does not widen."

A gesture is expected

Reportedly, the Budget Ministry is prepared to make a move on entry into force of the measure on second homes (which could be a little delayed) and would eventually restore a favorable tax abatement in the time, based on a total exemption from taxation of capital gains after thirty years rather than twenty-five as proposed by Gilles Carrez. Between last-minute negotiations and uncertainties on the position of Members who are not part of the Finance Committee, voting in the National Assembly is uncertain. Not to mention that it could be unraveled in the Senate."No decision of economics can not be accepted in the general joy," says Philippe Marini, the UMP rapporteur of the Committee on Finance of the High Assembly, which considers the extent of the government "justified".

Faced with rumors that shook markets extremely volatile last week and some bank stocks are falling, the stock market authorities are seeking a European risposta. Thursday night market regulators in Brussels, Madrid, Paris and Rome have announced a ban on short selling, which takes effect this Friday, for at least 15 days.

Short sales are a complex and risky speculative practice, which involves, initially, borrow securities (eg 10 euros) which anticipates the decline. Then sell it. And finally to buy it when its being dropped (8 euros). By selling what he had not yet acquired by the speculator has pocketed a gain of 2 euros.

This practice is alleged to amplify the declines of the securities markets. Its prohibition is routinely considered during financial crises."Short sales are trading strategies consistent with the rules but they become abusive when they are clearly associated with large and false market rumors," said ESMA, the European regulator of financial markets in a statement.

Eleven French values ​​involved

In France, the AMF has decided to ban short selling of eleven financial stocks which were particularly severe on the stock market due to rumors about the health of the banking sector guaranteed payday loan. Societe Generale is one of them: the bank has seen its price falls by 15% Wednesday due to a rumor of a false information about a bank failure in the British tabloid Mail on Sunday.Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas are also among the financials involved.

"We deal in various European countries to rumors that are unfounded," noted the president of the AMF. "These rumors can amount to market abuse", by which the MFA refers to price manipulation and insider trading. Finance Minister Baroin has in turn welcomed the decision of the AMF.

In France as in Spain and Italy, the ban is valid for 15 days and may be renewed. In Belgium, where naked short sales (where the investor does not own the loan) were already banned, the new ban is enforced for a period inderterminée.It concerns four titles: KBC Ancora, Dexia and Aegas.

The Dutch financial markets regulator AFM, meanwhile, said he saw no need to ban short sales on the exchanges of Amsterdam.

The response of government was quick. Thursday afternoon, members of the IEA (International Energy Agency), which includes industrialized countries, have decided to use their strategic oil stocks. One way to compensate for the lack of production Jamahiriya, the latter being blocked since February. A few hours later, the Energy Minister, Eric Besson said in a statement he wanted to Total "that any drop in oil prices is reflected at the pump." A wish welcomed by the CEO of Total, says Besson, who will make the same request to other fuel dispensers.

The decision of the IEA is not surprising. The agency warned in May that it was ready to use "all means" in case of persistent lack of production paydayloans.Specifically, it will bring to market 2 million barrels per day for a month, compared to 1.6 million barrels of Libyan production. PAGE The United States will provide half of Europe about 30%. France will contribute in proportion to its consumption, or 3.2 million barrels, equivalent to about 2% of French strategic stocks.

To some analysts, this is a "rifle-shot." Coupled with the renewed concerns about global growth, the announcement Thursday caused a decline in oil prices – about $ 8 a barrel in London and $ 6 in New York.

The legend tells that one day, during an international summit, Dominique Strauss-Kahn had dropped to Christine Lagarde, a playful tone that one day he was president he would keep at Bercy. Of course the Minister of Economy has always denied this story and more today, then it appears hour after hour as the favorite candidate to succeed DSK.

Officially, she declined comment. But long before the scandal broke DSK, senior officials in his office did not hide their fear to see her leave Paris for Washington prematurely. They know how much she wants this job and especially that it has all the skills to hold: perfect English, love of U.S. knowledge of the workings of monetary negotiations and all the great leaders of this world … Christine Lagarde CV ideal.Moreover, it is sufficient to formally apply for almost be guaranteed to gather in his name all the votes in Europe, both German Chancellor and Minister of Finance appreciate.

But: it has been mired for months in the case that Tapie place under the threat of a lawsuit by the Court of Justice of the Republic. A sword of Damocles that is bad style court when the former IMF chief languishing in jail. Second question, at this stage: Nicolas Sarkozy is willing to let his Economy Minister in new horizons, to a year in the presidency? Nothing is less certain: the Éysée is currently in radio silence mode