International News

Oil flirts with $ 100 a barrel. But it could climb higher, it is in any case the feeling of the experts of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management which assumes about $ 120 a barrel next year.

The return of the production of Libya on the market faster than expected: it reached about 700,000 barrels per day (against 1.6 million before the crisis in the country), "a figure that was thought best to reach the end of years, "said Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. The country should, in this study, return to its previous capacity until mid-2012. Meanwhile, production of mature countries such as Norway, Mexico and the United Kingdom declined. And falling stocks including the United States.

"Countries like Saudi Arabia require that the price of oil is at a relatively high (above 90 dollars per barrel) in order to balance their budgets," said the study payday loans.OPEC therefore intervene in the case of lower prices. A scenario that does not, however, resist a global recession.

A further increase of gold expected

Among commodities, gold has also been rising by several asset managers. Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management believes that in a context of very low interest rates, the market should remain strong.

The Swiss Bank Wegelin, too, advises his clients to hold physical gold, not least because it considers the euro, the yen and the dollar overvalued. "When all the current problems are resolved, then it will be time to get out of gold" summarizes Magne Y. Orglandes, managing partner of the Swiss bank.

In the third quarter, gold demand has also increased by 6% according to statistics from World Gold Council, reaching a record $ 57.7 billion (42.7 billion euros).

There are several benefits to no teletrack payday loans, which typically have an easy web based application resulting in quick approval times.

Card for Teens, Young booklet, ready to license one euro a day, student savings, credit card and battery removal on the Internet for children of 12 years, life insurance Special darlings …. Having invested heavily to the youth market, banks raise one last taboo by attacking 6-10 years.

It's Societe Generale, which sets the tone by launching the first website dedicated to financial education for children. A large reinforcements of advertising campaigns, which involved Gourmaud Jamy, is television youth with his "It's not rocket science" on France 3, the banking group has the smallest raise money, investors and underwriters in the making of contracts ."Because tomorrow is getting ready today," argues there be building on this "living tool that will grow with the children."

Informational and edutainment, abcbanque.fr offers editorial content, interactive videos, games for the value of things and a management tool pocket money. With a username and a password, the child can manage their virtual piggy bank and establish its projects from its budget, as calculated the cost of a gift for his parents.

"Succeeding in later life financial"

"Birthday, Christmas, little mouse … even for the smallest, there are many opportunities to fill their piggy banks.

Many individuals prefer to keep their cash rather than warm place in the markets. The storm was the market could only reinforce this position. However, taking the trouble to dig a little, there are various investment avenues to explore. We offer three, through ETFs and funds.

Corporate bonds, small return for a limited risk

The first idea, for those who are tired of exposure to the debts of states is to turn to big companies a solid, popular with rating agencies. Compensation is greater than 3%. Above all, the defects are rare. These bonds have weathered the crisis well because in 2008, Markit index of large financial obligations out gained 1.85%. Obligations to expose themselves to quality, we recommend going through a tracker.The fund, management fees very low, continuously quoted on the Bourse de Paris, can invest confidently (code: FR0010814236).

The high yield, large compensation for significant risk

The junk bonds, as they are called the Anglo-Saxons have a bad reputation. Yet they can be very profitable in the long run. Indeed, the annual yield is greater than 9%. In addition, the risk is often exaggerated on these bonds. After degradation, Peugeot and Lafarge are after example in the category high efficiency. To invest in these securities, we recommend again to go through a tracker. The Lyxor on 30 bonds seems ideal. It provides immediate liquidity and management fees ridiculous, which is far from the case for other funds. ISIN code FR0010975771 is.

Shares with high dividends for the long term

It is hard to miss the action with a strong performance. On average, the CAC 40 shares of 5% relate. It is not uncommon for actions bring more than 6% as Total, Vivendi or property. Choose a fund comprising shares with good dividends ensures more consistent performance. Many funds have forged strong reputations. Indeed, in this case, talent managers can make a difference as it is to ensure that dividends are regular and, as far as possible, guaranteed. Among the funds that have caught our attention, citions Pictet-High Dividend Selection (Code: LU0503634221).

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"The euro is a rock against the crisis. "This declaration of Gylfi Arnbjornsson, President of Iceland's largest union, released in turmoil in the euro area, out of place. "While a small floating national currency increases the flexibility and affects employees," he insists. Bryndis, she does not believe more in the EU and the euro area. "It does not work. The crown, however, allowed us to emerge quickly from the crisis, "said the young woman, who works in a bookstore, very committed to the sovereignty of his country. These two strong views illustrate the gap between pro-and anti-Europe.

Iceland began on June 27 last formal negotiations to enter the European Union. At the end, Icelanders will vote in a referendum.The challenge for the small island in the far north that is just three years of severe recession, is to join the single currency.

The debate in Reykjavik is far from settled, including the center-left coalition government, like the Minister of Economy Social Democratic supporter of the euro and its counterpart of Finance defends the virtues of the crown.

"The devaluation of over 40% has boosted the competitiveness of our exports. The gain exceeds the final cost. Unemployment would have been much worse, "says Green Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson. With two key economic sectors: aluminum and fishing account for 80% of exports. In this land swept by the waters and winds so imposing nature, the farm lobby and fishing make their voices heard. They reject the decisions of Brussels and its quotas.Yet, in fact, Iceland is already integrated into the European Union.

The case "Icesave" three years ago that poisons relations with Great Britain and the Netherlands also maintained Euroscepticism. The State has spent 15% of GDP to save its national banks but refused to compensate the foreign customers of the bank Icesave, bankruptcy. An early decision of the European Court of Justice could force Reykjavik to set the slate of 8 billion euros. "The bank Landsbanki has the means to repay by selling its assets revalued since the crisis," said the minister.

Indebtedness

Three years to regain control of the IMF, the economy drastically, radical restructuring of the banks have put the country on track for growth, helped by a crown devalued no faxing pay day loans.In the field, if the maintenance of a welfare state and the strength of social ties, related to the geography of the place and its small population, have reduced the impact, the crisis is far from over. Reflecting Hildigunnur Sverrisdottir, 35, architect, married with three children. "We are living a nightmare, every month, our debts pile up, we have no visibility and perspective," she confesses.

This family alone synthesizes all the symptoms of the crisis Iceland: Hidlig lost his job after the explosion of the housing bubble, the couple bought a house at full price. They chose a loan in foreign currency – yen, Swiss franc and euro – more attractive as deemed stable and offering lower interest rates. This not to mention local specificity to index mortgages on inflation, which reached its highest, 18%.Result, many Icelanders have seen the value of their loans soar. "In my generation, everyone has lost an average of 10 million crowns," says Hubert Koziet, who suffered a pay cut and an increase of one third of its credit.

Unable to repay their credit, Hidlig and her husband were offered a government program, reserved for owners 13 .500, which is to cap credit 110% of the value of the dwelling and convert crown. "We do not know what to do, we are still negotiating with our bank, we do not rule out leaving the country. Many of our friends, architect, engineer, accountant … went to Denmark and the United States. "

Counter the brain drain and attract new investment, are the future challenges for sustainable growth in Iceland. Because the economy remains crippled by capital controls and political instability.Ironically, today is not money that is lacking in the small island – banks are full of capital that the Icelanders and businesses could exfiltrer abroad – but it suffers from a lack of confidence in the future and the political elites.

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The contours of the nationalization of Dexia emerge. When Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel discussed the rescue of banks in the euro area in Berlin, Prime Minister François Fillon, his counterpart Yves Leterme and representatives of Luxembourg have them addressed this issue in a summit to looks like a marathon. And this morning, after a council of ministers, Belgium has decided to take control of 100% of Dexia Bank Belgium, the Belgian entity of the institution present in retail banking, with an investment of 4 billion euros. A price at the bottom of the valuation range expected by shareholders, who were betting on an amount of between 3 and 7.5 billion euros. The Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders believes that this amount is "reasonable."Belgium intends to remain for several years proprietor of the bank in order to "continuity" before the network to lean a private actor.

The board of directors supports the offer of Dexia in Brussels, saying it is part of the "social interest" group. It also ensures that the 600 employees of the Dexia holding will be reclassified to the various subsidiaries promised a recovery.

Meanwhile, states have agreed on the allocation of guarantees to make to the future "bad bank" that remain after the dismantling or the defeasance structure to isolate the assets at risk. "States have agreed to divide this guarantee in proportions similar to those of 2008 (during the rescue of Dexia), 60.5% for Belgium, 36.5% for France and 3% for Luxembourg," said the Belgian government.

For its part, the French state must create a new bank dedicated to communities, both owned by the Postal Bank and the Deposit CDC. The Board of Directors has appointed Dexia director Pierre Mariani to conduct these negotiations. His copy to a detailed plan of recovery of the industry is expected "in the coming weeks."

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The diagnosis of "Dr. Disaster" is clear: "Most advanced economies are on their way to a new recession." Nouriel Roubini said at a conference organized by Bloomberg, the latest economic statistics published overseas suggest that the United States, Britain and the major countries in the euro area have even one foot into it.

U.S. consumer confidence is indeed stable in September at a level close to its lowest point reached two years ago at the height of the crisis. American households are also more likely to say that it is difficult to find a job. At the same time, European governments are struggling to resolve the debt crisis.

Thus the eyes of the president and co-founder of the fund Roubini Global Economics, "the question is not whether or not there will an economic contraction, but rather what will be the extent of recession and if we know a new international financial crisis. " The influential Economist states that "the answer to these questions depends on what happens in the euro area and whether European leaders will be able to act together." At the same time, the preacher of the crisis of 2008 states that "politicians have no more cartridges."

And pessimism legendary Nouriel Roubini told him that the consequences of the debt crisis in Europe could be "worse" than the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance

Gloomy predictions that echo the advice provided by Nouriel Roubini to its own customers. In a letter theoretically confidential, the owner of consulting firm Roubini Global Economic Financial has in fact recently recommended its clients to sell their assets to European sovereign debt. According to him, and they realize their "hit of the year." Nouriel Roubini has hammered "take the money and run away easy payday loans."

And if the man turns and respected professor of economics at the head trader of an investment fund, was able to foresee the crisis "subprime" as 2006, it has not always been right. When the stock market index S & P 500 fell to its lowest level in twelve years in March 2009, Nouriel Roubini believed then that he would continue to fall.But the American flag then flew by 65% ​​in the year 2009! Thus remains to be hoped that this time the predictions of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance will not be realized.

Economists forecast break their

One by one, the big banks revise downward their growth forecasts. These days, economists Exane BNP Paribas announced that they did not exclude a more "negative growth" at the end of the year in France. Societe Generale CIB provides a near-zero growth in activity in the third (+0.1%) and fourth quarter (+0.2%). For its part Bank of America Merrill Lynch table does more for France than on a 1.5% growth in 2011.

Involved, the crisis in the eurozone, according to economists Groupama: "Since the beginning of the summer, the expectations of businesses and consumers are deteriorating sharply, especially in Germany, most likely because of the crisis of governance European ". Clearly, the panic in financial markets and the ongoing crisis on the front of the public debt plunge consumers and businesses in the wait.

But at present, "it is very difficult to judge the extent and duration of the downturn," said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist of Exane BNP Paribas.

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Remain in control at home. Such is the concern of Mark Pincus, founder of Zynga, the leading provider of video games for social networks, such as Farmville, with 232 million active players per month. To retain full authority in his business, despite its forthcoming IPO, Mark Pincus holds a special law, approved by its board of directors. This decision is consistent with her wishes because administrators have been selected by Mark Pincus himself, as his deputy director general John Shappert.

The founder of the start-up in 2007 in San Francisco, won each of its actions has 70 voting rights, according to a company document obtained by Bloomberg.It's better than what was originally planned or what has been practiced for IPO social network LinkedIn for business: 10 votes per share for the co-founders.

Thus, Mark Pincus, holder of 16% stake in his company, he will maintain his authority over every decision. This must still be approved by two-thirds of the shareholders, before September 2.

Then Zynga will take his first steps on the stock market and rising, as envisaged from the beginning of the summer, about one billion dollars. If all goes as planned, its market capitalization should be between 15 and 20 billion. The group would become the company most expensive in the world in video games at Electronic Arts (7 cash advance america.3 billion) and Activision Blizzard (13200000000), controlled by Vivendi.Earlier this year, the company was "valued at $ 5 billion," says an expert from PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Reversal of value

It is a real reversal of the hierarchy: the publisher of games for social networks could surpass traditional publishers of games for consoles and PC. Zynga is very profitable with its free games, such as Farmville, CityVille or MafiaWars, which cost little money to design and generate significant revenue. Proceeds from the start-up, with over 2000 employees, results mainly from the sale of real shadow, like a farm, factory or virtual fruit trees, which help the player to progress in his adventure. This model is thriving, thanks to Facebook as "friends" involved of challenges through simple little game.Therefore, Zynga should display in 2011 a turnover of around $ 1.5 billion, with, the key to a net income close to $ 500 million. In 2010, after three years of existence, the company became profitable, with $ 90.6 million in net profits for a turnover of 597.5 million and cash of close to one billion.

Traditional competitors, Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts, respectively realized 4.44 billion in revenue and $ 3.58 billion.

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Teens and their parents flock there. The phenomenon Abercrombie & Fitch has landed in France on May 19, down the Champs-Elysees, with its formidable marketing clout. Home glamorous youths by the Paris flagship store of American education is the temple of polo shirts, tee-shirts and jeans, amid loud music, light and fragrance ultratamisée excessive."We are very happy with our opening in Paris," said mercredila leadership of the group, still very concerned about its image … Irritated by the bad publicity that makes him free Michael Sorrentino, a member of the cast of reality show "Jersey Shore" on MTV, she just offered to pay the person to change his wardrobe!

Despite the quarterly results better than expected, the action Abercrombie & Fitch has lost 6.5% Wednesday to the New York Stock Exchange, investors who held that the prospects bleak in the face of declining consumption and increase in the prices of raw materials in textiles. Sales in late July, the group, which operates 1073 stores, rose 23% to 916.8 million dollars.In stores constant, the increase was still 9%: 5% for the brand Abercrombie & Fitch, Abercrombie Kids 7% and 12% for Hollister Co, which plans to open four stores in France by the end of year no fax payday loans. Net income totaled $ 32 million, against 19.5 million a year earlier. "The cost pressures will be stronger during the second half of the year and macroeconomic uncertainty is greater," warned Mike Jeffries, president of Abercrombie & Fitch.

From 60 to 65 closures in the U.S.

United States, consumer confidence fell in August to its lowest level for over thirty years. Further price increases may slow their spending even more, while the new school year is crucial for the ready-to-wear.In this difficult context, Abercrombie & Fitch warned that it would close from 60 to 65 stores in the United States, most corresponding to maturities of leases at year end. But the chain has confirmed its willingness to open five flagships during the fiscal year 2011 (including Paris). Madrid, Dusseldorf, Brussels and Singapore are scheduled for the fourth quarter. Hamburg is announced for spring 2012, and Hong Kong in the summer. Hollister provides more than 40 openings abroad, in shopping malls.

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Faced with rumors that shook markets extremely volatile last week and some bank stocks are falling, the stock market authorities are seeking a European risposta. Thursday night market regulators in Brussels, Madrid, Paris and Rome have announced a ban on short selling, which takes effect this Friday, for at least 15 days.

Short sales are a complex and risky speculative practice, which involves, initially, borrow securities (eg 10 euros) which anticipates the decline. Then sell it. And finally to buy it when its being dropped (8 euros). By selling what he had not yet acquired by the speculator has pocketed a gain of 2 euros.

This practice is alleged to amplify the declines of the securities markets. Its prohibition is routinely considered during financial crises."Short sales are trading strategies consistent with the rules but they become abusive when they are clearly associated with large and false market rumors," said ESMA, the European regulator of financial markets in a statement.

Eleven French values ​​involved

In France, the AMF has decided to ban short selling of eleven financial stocks which were particularly severe on the stock market due to rumors about the health of the banking sector guaranteed payday loan. Societe Generale is one of them: the bank has seen its price falls by 15% Wednesday due to a rumor of a false information about a bank failure in the British tabloid Mail on Sunday.Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas are also among the financials involved.

"We deal in various European countries to rumors that are unfounded," noted the president of the AMF. "These rumors can amount to market abuse", by which the MFA refers to price manipulation and insider trading. Finance Minister Baroin has in turn welcomed the decision of the AMF.

In France as in Spain and Italy, the ban is valid for 15 days and may be renewed. In Belgium, where naked short sales (where the investor does not own the loan) were already banned, the new ban is enforced for a period inderterminée.It concerns four titles: KBC Ancora, Dexia and Aegas.

The Dutch financial markets regulator AFM, meanwhile, said he saw no need to ban short sales on the exchanges of Amsterdam.

The White House on Saturday called for the unity of the Democratic and Republican parties to restore the economic and budgetary situation of the United States, after the degradation for the first time in their history of "AAA" rating. "We must do better to show our willingness, our ability and commitment to work together to address the economic and budgetary challenges," said the spokesman for the White House, Jay Carney, in a statement.

Shortly before, the only official reaction came from the Treasury and was terse: "an appreciation vitiated by an error of 2000 billion dollars speaks for itself." This release has illustrated the high tensions between the administration occurred Friday Obama and the rating agency Standard and Poor's, crystallized around a miscalculation of 2000 billion.

As tradition dictates, S & P has informed earlier this afternoon the Treasury's decision before making it public. This is usually an opportunity for the government to point out any factual errors. At this meeting, U.S. officials soon discover that the projections of S & P over ten years the budget deficit and public debt do not coincide with the figures of the executive, from the work of the Office of Congressional Budget (CBO).The U.S. public debt stood at 93% of GDP in 2021 instead of the expected 85%, a difference of two trillion dollars.

Standard and Poor's emphasizes the "political risks"

Faced with protests from the government, the rating agency starts with defense. She claims to be part of the work of the CBO, a retaining projection "alternative" of government spending, considered more realistic. After discussions, however, she agrees to return to the initial forecasts. The Treasury advised her to give himself time to review the numbers cold.

Far from judging, Standard and Poor's does not reverse its decision to lower the rating of the United States to "AA +" with 'Negative' outlook. The agency submits a new version of its release to focus on "political risks" to see the country taking insufficient measures against its budget deficit payday loan lenders.In another statement released at night, she explained that the correction of the error has changed only marginally forecasts of debt in 3 to 5 years to come, "decisive" for its decision. "This is a technical error, no serious consequences," says one within the agency.

According to S & P, the political debate on these issues in the United States is indeed not up to the problems caused by a debt of more than 14,500 billion.According to a U.S. government source quoted by CNBC, this episode proves that the decision by Standard and Poor's was taken regardless of the numbers, while revised data showed that the deficit would be sustainable over the next ten years.

"Latest victim of the failure of Obama's economic"

The rating agency had in fact warned in mid-July the Obama administration she wanted a deficit reduction of 4 trillion dollars over ten years to maintain the triple-A, instead of hard-won 2.1 trillion. John Chambers, President of the Evaluation Committee of S & P, also found on CNN that Washington could have prevented the lowering of the notes within the ceiling as soon as the statutory debt.He said the responsibilities were shared by the Administration and Obama, but also "the previous administration."

The political reaction in Washington have shown just block pointed to by S & P. Mitt Romney, candidate for the Republican primary for the 2012 presidential election, has described the downgrade of American "latest victim of the failure of Obama's economic" and the Republican president the House of Representatives "consequence of uncontrolled spending in Washington in recent decades."The Senate Democratic leader, Harry Reid, has instead called for "a balanced approach to deficit reduction," with lower costs but also increases targeted taxes, it rejected the Republicans, under pressure ultra-conservative "tea parties" in the recent discussions on the debt.

(With branches)

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