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For the second time since 2009, Spain fell into recession. The Spanish economy has indeed contracted 0.3% in first quarter 2012 compared to end 2011, according to preliminary official figures released Monday. It is however slightly better than expected: the Spanish Central Bank expected a 0.4% decline in activity over the period.

After degradation of the Spanish note by Standard & Poor's, the publication of a record unemployment rate in March and fears more acute in the health of banks, the bad news accumulates in Madrid.

In the first quarter of 2012, only exports and tourism have supported activity. But their strength was more than offset by the effects of the austerity plan introduced by the center-right government of Mariano Rajoy, of unprecedented severity. Moreover, the cleanup of a long over-indebted economy, household businesses through the state, beating down domestic consumption. The proposed increase in VAT, under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, should accentuate this trend.

"The austerity trap"

So much so that the International Labor Organization (ILO), in its report published on Monday, sets up Spain as an example not to follow a policy solely focused on rigor. She stressed that "the deficit was reduced by just over 9% of GDP in 2010 to 8.5% of GDP in 2011: a very small reduction after a drastic austerity program." For 2012, the government had to moderate its deficit reduction target, it expects to either 4.4% but 5.3% of GDP, given the deteriorating situation. For the ILO, "the trap of austerity is being shut down."

The Spanish economy should continue to suffer, economists fear. "We expect an acceleration of the recession in the coming quarters, in parallel with the rise of austerity measures," said Evelyn Herrmann, economist at BNP Paribas. "Things should get worse before it gets better," says Martin van Vliet, of ING Bank.

Unemployment, already at a record level of 24.44%, should continue to climb. It should eventually reach more of an asset over four in Spain, provides the analyst consensus. Symbol of the Spanish slump, the construction industry, long time driver of the economy because of swelling of the housing bubble, should continue to lay off. It accounts for another 9% of employment, against 6% on average in the eurozone.  

Fears on banks

"The worsening situation on the labor market will have a particularly negative impact on banks," notes Ricardo Santos, an expert in Southern Europe at BNP Paribas. "The share of loans" non-performing "(that is to say, threatening never to be repaid, Ed) is expected to increase and represent 9% in late 2012." To which are added 176 billion euros inventory of buildings and land "problem", that is to say to the uncertain value, as counted from the Spanish Central Bank. Country's only hope in the short term, the "Marshall Plan" for growth in project and unveiled in Brussels on Saturday by the daily El Pais. According to him, he is expected to reach 200 billion euros, or 4% of GDP of the European Union. But Brussels has denied, insisting that these figures "had no basis."  

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A report to simplify life in rural areas and make them more attractive. "Currently there are 9000 400 000 laws and regulatory standards that apply interchangeably in rural areas or urban! It's too, should be appropriate standards, "Storm-A-Pierre Morel The Bailiff, MP for Lozere, at the head of a report co-authored with three other rural UMP parliamentarians, whose elected mayennais Yannick Favennec.

Rural areas, it is 80% of the territory, and nearly a quarter of the French population lives there. Water, urban planning, health, education, digital, public services, all sectors of everyday rural life have been scrutinized by the authors. They interviewed 4,000 people during their investigation.

Among the hundreds of measures recommended in this 280-page report commissioned by the President in October to calm the revolt of rural representatives of the UMP, after the defeat of a majority in the Senate, eight draw particular attention . "The first demand of rural residents is access to high speed, said Pierre Morel-A-The Bailiff. We must ensure, through the process of deploying high-speed Internet, a balance between dense and sparse areas across the country. "Meanwhile, the mission says it takes" expand the service to Wi-Fi in the contact points of the Post Office working closely with local authorities who find themselves in white areas. "

Medical deserts

Regarding the best water management, the mission recommends that for "every individual and group reservations hill with a capacity less than 50,000 m3, a simplified procedure is implemented." The water law codes apply where 7, discourages such projects. "But the real usefulness appears both in agriculture and the public authorities (fire reserves, protection …)."

To enhance access to care and fight against deserts medical, the authors recommend such "compulsory internship for interns in rural areas, enough times to encourage customers during retirement."

To strengthen the utility grid, "we must set up kiosks type video, with a scanner to facilitate all the steps with an official or government and 18 companies such as EDF, GDF, DDT or employment center."

It is also proposed to extend the network of bank ATMs in the territories under-equipped. To keep more rural schools, elected officials indicate that it would "account for children from 2 years and not three years." Urban planning, the authors recommend "provide prior notification of buildings less than 8 m2 5 m2 cons now." Still, the MP Pierre Morel-A-The Bailiff is confident that these measures are applied regardless of the next tenant of the Elysee. He worked with his colleague PS, Michel VERGNIER, the Rural Committee of the Association of Mayors of France.

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Since the tsunami of 11 March and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the Japanese atomic reactors were arrested, one after the other to be auscultated. Today, on the fifty-four boilers that supplied 28% of electricity in the Archipelago, only two work. And they should, they also stop in April to be tested for safety.

The streets of Tokyo shine though all their neon lights, and the life of the megalopolis of 35 million people saw the usual pace of its thousands of trains daily. Certainly, the corridors of Meti, the Ministry of Economy, are left in the dark, for an example. But the great campaign to save energy this summer ended.

This return to almost normal life despite the closure of fifty-two reactors, Japan pays a high price. Imports of oil and gas only for rotating thermal power plants in 2011 jumped by 77% and 18%. For the first time in thirty-one years, Japan had a trade deficit in 2011, 24 billion euros. And began the year with a record monthly deficit of 15 billion euros for the month of January, dug by the price of crude.

In this context, the government and power companies do not hide their desire: to restart nuclear plants faster. Large industrial fear a surge in the cost per kilowatt hour are pushing in this direction. The electrician Tepco, which operated the plant in Fukushima Daiichi and navigates to the brink of bankruptcy, announced an increase in its rates 17% for its major customers.

Restart nuclear facilities, just a year after the nuclear accident which forced 100,000 people to evacuate contaminated area? "For the Japanese, it's almost existential debate," says a French expert on energy, visiting Tokyo. The surveys that follow indicate that the majority of the population wants a nuclear phase-out.

Breach of trust

Reflecting Yuichiro Yonei, student 23 years specializing in energy met at the University of Tsukuba, who lived on March 11 as "a break" pay day loans. The young man, who no longer has confidence in the government's word on disaster management Fukushima, became antinuclear. Many young people who share his position on social networks come to sign the petitions in the tent erected militants since the fall before the Ministry of Economy.

The government Yoshihiko Noda walking on eggshells. It will not go into force. Formally, it does not need the green light of regional governors, elected, but nevertheless takes shelter behind them. To restore confidence, after pointing a report of TEPCO and failures of government, the government is reforming the nuclear safety authority, discredited.

Sixteen reactors only have registered for "stress test". Two of them, Ohi 3 and 4, have been deemed suitable by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and could be the first to restart.

The government plans to present in June or July of its energy strategy for the coming years. "We must remove our dependence on nuclear power and build medium to long term a company that will not have to rely on this energy," said the Prime Minister Noda Saturday.

By the summer season of peak power consumption due to the massive use of air conditioning, the Japanese will have to make tough choices: restart their nuclear reactors or pay the current high price; suffer outages new current or reduce their consumption of 10 to 15%.

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This is an open secret, Greece will not reimburse at best a small part of his debts. In practice, three-way open to it. Either to agree with its private creditors who accept a "voluntary extinction" of their assets or negotiate a "partial default" in accordance with its European partners. Or, finally, walk out, like Argentina in 2001, called a "disorderly default."

On the merits, all three perspectives are not so different as they seem at first glance. Buenos Aires was finally concluded in 2005, a restructuring agreement with its creditors, who agreed to lose 65% of their assets. A huge sacrifice, but less than the "palm" of 73% currently proposed to the creditors of Athens, according to Jean Lemierre encryption, one of their main representatives in the discussions.

It comes out of the ambiguity that his injury

Moreover, the "voluntary" nature of the PSI, the Private Sector Involvement, where creditors agree to commit hara-kiri is a total hypocrisy. It's like "confessions during the Spanish Inquisition," recently remarked President of Commerzbank Martin Blessing. It expresses a widespread feeling among his colleagues and much more in the Greek pension funds. For them, three quarters of the savings are invested in securities of their state, the loss will be huge, whereas exposure to Greece is only 1% of GDP in the euro area for international investors (according the BIS figures).

But, as everyone knows, no one leaves ambiguity as its detriment. Breaking fiction would volunteer to accept a "partial default". However, as repeatedly stated since the summer of 2011 Jean-Claude Trichet and Mario Draghi, his successor as head of the ECB, the latter would be forced overnight to refuse the Greek securities pledged loans that it offers to banks Hellenic. It would be to bankrupt the entire banking system of Greece, with a further loss of 173 billion euros for the ECB, obliged to make a cross on the Greek paper it holds (retired or in outright purchases ).

As for the third option, a "disorderly failure", the international consequences would be far more dramatic than in the case of Argentina. The shock wave would destabilize the rest of Europe. The IIF, the bank lobby, estimated at 1,000 billion euros losses for banks because of their financial ramifications cross. They consider to be a Gordian knot impossible to untie except slicing. Which would amount to a bank crash cause at least as serious as the crisis following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

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Card for Teens, Young booklet, ready to license one euro a day, student savings, credit card and battery removal on the Internet for children of 12 years, life insurance Special darlings …. Having invested heavily to the youth market, banks raise one last taboo by attacking 6-10 years.

It's Societe Generale, which sets the tone by launching the first website dedicated to financial education for children. A large reinforcements of advertising campaigns, which involved Gourmaud Jamy, is television youth with his "It's not rocket science" on France 3, the banking group has the smallest raise money, investors and underwriters in the making of contracts ."Because tomorrow is getting ready today," argues there be building on this "living tool that will grow with the children."

Informational and edutainment, abcbanque.fr offers editorial content, interactive videos, games for the value of things and a management tool pocket money. With a username and a password, the child can manage their virtual piggy bank and establish its projects from its budget, as calculated the cost of a gift for his parents.

"Succeeding in later life financial"

"Birthday, Christmas, little mouse … even for the smallest, there are many opportunities to fill their piggy banks.

Liquidation or recovery? The future of the ferry company SeaFrance, SNCF and property loss for over ten years, is played in two stages this week. The European Commission must give its opinion on Monday the recovery plan presented by the company management.

It is financed recapitalization to the tune of 160 million euros provided by the station, its parent company, and a loan of 99.9 million euros was also granted by the SNCF "market conditions" as Ministry of Transport, at the forefront of negotiations with the Commission.

Three candidates for the recovery

On 19 October, Brussels decided to give a stay of several days the French government for an independent investor that is able to replace the station to inject 100 million euros.This loan is indeed the point of blocking the bailout.

Allocated by the SNCF, it is similar to State aid. But the Ministry of Transport, we do not believe in miracles. "In the current situation, no bank is willing to release 100 million euros to support SeaFrance," says a close case.

Tuesday, it was the turn of the Commercial Court of Paris to decide: the liquidation or takeover by one of three candidates. In addition to a mystery buyer, called "Being Bang," Louis Dreyfus Armateurs is associated with the Danish DFDS in a consortium. Another offers more unusual is in the running. This is a cooperative production (Scop) carried by the CFDT.

512 employees have already raised a finger to enter the capital of the SCOP which will take back almost all of the employees but is seeking another 20 to 25 million euros.SeaFrance has 880 employees.

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Meanwhile Cannes … The G20 finance ministers, held Friday and Saturday in Paris, was aimed to prove once again to the European partners that it was at the bedside of the crisis currently affecting the area, but also to mark the stage for the G20 heads of state to be held in early November on the Croisette.

This Saturday, the central bankers have therefore agreed to support and rebalance the global economy in a context of heightened tensions, and lead coordinated policies in the short and long term."Advanced countries will adopt, taking into account their respective national circumstances, policies to strengthen the confidence and support growth and implement measures clear, credible and targeted to rebalance public finances," it said in the final communiqué.

While in the coming days, the United States should "clarify" their budgetary consolidation measures and China commit to "rebalance" its growth engines, the Europeans themselves have promised to respond "comprehensive and sustainable "to the debt crisis that mine. In this context, the results of the European Summit of 23 October will be "decisive," assured on Saturday the Minister of Economy, Baroin, who chaired the summit.The G20 ministers expect indeed a "comprehensive plan" that will "provide an aggressive response to current challenges."

All topics to be discussed in Brussels at the EU summit and then to Cannes and is listed in the press release.If the finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 welcomed the decisions taken in late July to strengthen the powers and capacity of intervention of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), they said to wait for new work to maximize the impact of the fund, and that to "avoid any risk of contagion" from the Greek crisis to other economies.

The warning from Christine Lagarde

On the issue of banks, ministers say they will ensure "that banks have an adequate level of capital and have adequate access to funding to address current risks," while the new haircut on debt of the Greek state held by private creditors will be known on October 23.

The contours of the nationalization of Dexia emerge. When Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel discussed the rescue of banks in the euro area in Berlin, Prime Minister François Fillon, his counterpart Yves Leterme and representatives of Luxembourg have them addressed this issue in a summit to looks like a marathon. And this morning, after a council of ministers, Belgium has decided to take control of 100% of Dexia Bank Belgium, the Belgian entity of the institution present in retail banking, with an investment of 4 billion euros. A price at the bottom of the valuation range expected by shareholders, who were betting on an amount of between 3 and 7.5 billion euros. The Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders believes that this amount is "reasonable."Belgium intends to remain for several years proprietor of the bank in order to "continuity" before the network to lean a private actor.

The board of directors supports the offer of Dexia in Brussels, saying it is part of the "social interest" group. It also ensures that the 600 employees of the Dexia holding will be reclassified to the various subsidiaries promised a recovery.

Meanwhile, states have agreed on the allocation of guarantees to make to the future "bad bank" that remain after the dismantling or the defeasance structure to isolate the assets at risk. "States have agreed to divide this guarantee in proportions similar to those of 2008 (during the rescue of Dexia), 60.5% for Belgium, 36.5% for France and 3% for Luxembourg," said the Belgian government.

For its part, the French state must create a new bank dedicated to communities, both owned by the Postal Bank and the Deposit CDC. The Board of Directors has appointed Dexia director Pierre Mariani to conduct these negotiations. His copy to a detailed plan of recovery of the industry is expected "in the coming weeks."

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Controllers return to work gradually. After La Rochelle and Paris Sud Est (Gare de Lyon), several sites have voted Friday morning to return to work, like Bordeaux, Reims, Chambery, Dijon, Lyon, St Etienne, Toulouse or Besancon. Other websites should take a similar decision at general meetings planned in the afternoon. The management of the SNCF

Many controllers SNCF had exercised their right to withdraw on Thursday afternoon to work after the announcement of the attack on a colleague on a train on the Corail Lyon-Strasbourg. In an interview with Figaro.fr, the president of the SNCF appealed to the coolness of the railway to resume work soon and would discuss with the unions to turn.Management has undertaken to present an emergency plan with the security services.

Traffic TGV, Corail and TER is still disrupted, although the situation has improved significantly over the entire network, including 8-9 in 10 TGV from and to Paris and a TER of 2. To find out if their train is running, users are encouraged to consult regularly Infolignes site, or call toll free (free from a landline) 0805 90 36 35 credit score.

Toll and information site

SNCF always invites customers to delay their trip or take alternate means of transportation. Ticket holders whose train was canceled may obtain a refund, or take any train leaving for the same destination without the need to exchange their ticket. Good news however for users Transilien (train network in the Île-de-France), the Thalys and Eurostar.Traffic on these lines is normal according to SNCF.

"There is no point in penalizing travelers"

The strike controller led Thursday the cancellation of all trains at night, and created a big mess all over the country. According to the station, all passengers stranded at the station in the evening were able to reach their destination or were assisted to find accommodation for the night. According to the Ministry of the Interior, it was not necessary to set up emergency housing plan.
Board trains at the Gare Saint-Charles in Marseille. Photo credits: GERARD JULIEN / AFP

The diagnosis of "Dr. Disaster" is clear: "Most advanced economies are on their way to a new recession." Nouriel Roubini said at a conference organized by Bloomberg, the latest economic statistics published overseas suggest that the United States, Britain and the major countries in the euro area have even one foot into it.

U.S. consumer confidence is indeed stable in September at a level close to its lowest point reached two years ago at the height of the crisis. American households are also more likely to say that it is difficult to find a job. At the same time, European governments are struggling to resolve the debt crisis.

Thus the eyes of the president and co-founder of the fund Roubini Global Economics, "the question is not whether or not there will an economic contraction, but rather what will be the extent of recession and if we know a new international financial crisis. " The influential Economist states that "the answer to these questions depends on what happens in the euro area and whether European leaders will be able to act together." At the same time, the preacher of the crisis of 2008 states that "politicians have no more cartridges."

And pessimism legendary Nouriel Roubini told him that the consequences of the debt crisis in Europe could be "worse" than the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance

Gloomy predictions that echo the advice provided by Nouriel Roubini to its own customers. In a letter theoretically confidential, the owner of consulting firm Roubini Global Economic Financial has in fact recently recommended its clients to sell their assets to European sovereign debt. According to him, and they realize their "hit of the year." Nouriel Roubini has hammered "take the money and run away easy payday loans."

And if the man turns and respected professor of economics at the head trader of an investment fund, was able to foresee the crisis "subprime" as 2006, it has not always been right. When the stock market index S & P 500 fell to its lowest level in twelve years in March 2009, Nouriel Roubini believed then that he would continue to fall.But the American flag then flew by 65% ​​in the year 2009! Thus remains to be hoped that this time the predictions of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance will not be realized.

Economists forecast break their

One by one, the big banks revise downward their growth forecasts. These days, economists Exane BNP Paribas announced that they did not exclude a more "negative growth" at the end of the year in France. Societe Generale CIB provides a near-zero growth in activity in the third (+0.1%) and fourth quarter (+0.2%). For its part Bank of America Merrill Lynch table does more for France than on a 1.5% growth in 2011.

Involved, the crisis in the eurozone, according to economists Groupama: "Since the beginning of the summer, the expectations of businesses and consumers are deteriorating sharply, especially in Germany, most likely because of the crisis of governance European ". Clearly, the panic in financial markets and the ongoing crisis on the front of the public debt plunge consumers and businesses in the wait.

But at present, "it is very difficult to judge the extent and duration of the downturn," said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist of Exane BNP Paribas.

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