Taxing wealth, not what he produces seems to be the philosophy adopted by the Elysee. Photo credits: MELANIE FREY / Le Figaro Magazine
lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – Unemployment remains very high, growth for this year looks soft (OECD expects U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% in 2010, Ed). Could we expect that?
David Kalfon – It's a real disappointment given the amounts that have been injected into the financial system, that is to say, the $ 800 billion in the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP – Name Secretary to the Treasury of the United States – implemented from September 2008 to address the financial crisis) and the many unconventional actions taken by the U.S. central bank. The difference with the resumption of U.S. corporate profits have rebounded strongly since 2008 is obvious. However, if we analyze the situation correctly, this gap between macroeconomics and microeconomics is not so surprising as that.
To restore their operating margins, companies have been very aggressive in their restructuring costs declined sharply. What was the logical consequence of increasing the rate of unemployment (two years, from about 5% to 10%, Ed). Today, financial markets do not know who to trust. They oscillate between good corporate health and chilling the speech of the U.S. central bank.
Next Wednesday, the Fed should just announce in detail the measures it intends to take to support the economy. What should you expect?
I think that financial markets expect the Fed probably too much and its measures to support the economy. One can wonder about their effectiveness. Indeed, this "Quantitative Easing 2" (monetary easing) is the recognition of the failure of the Quantitative Easing 1 ".This monetary easing is likely the specter of deflation, but at what price? In reality, everything will depend on the tone adopted by the Fed than the amounts it will announce.
If investors and households feel its determination to support the economy, it could anchor inflation expectations in the minds of various economic agents. They will then be convinced that we must invest, borrow and consume now, because tomorrow, inflation will result in higher prices and higher cost of credit to what we enjoy today. A virtuous circle can be a lasting positive impact on the U.S. economy.
Next week will also feature the midterm elections in the United States. What should you expect as well?
If the Republicans win, the constraints on budget spending will be more stringent.From there, the dollar should strengthen the American economy and be penalized in the short term, a weak dollar is helping U.S. exports.
How are financial markets behave?
With these two appointments of monetary policy and fiscal stance, we should expect that financial markets are very volatile. One might wonder with an increase of 13% S & P 500 in a straight line on the last two months how the rates are not already incorporate a favorable outcome. If the news is disappointing, there is no doubt that the U.S. indices will consolidate. However, given the recent behavior of the indices, even with good news, it is not obvious to see the S & P 500 continue to rise unabated.
What attitudes must take investors?
I advise investors to remain relatively cautious and not take excessive risks. After thoroughly enjoyed the upward movement of the markets, and particularly the technology sector, we have decided to take a portion of our earnings and reduce our exposure somewhat action pending announcements next week, leaving to reposition itself quickly once the uncertainty lifted.
A cordon citizen "of about 80 people, residents and activists of other corporations, attempted to prevent early Friday morning requisition refinery Grandpuits (Seine-et-Marne) ordered by the prefect.
The police, acting with his bare hands, pushed the protesters to clear the gate of the refinery, and it was during the stampede that people were slightly injured.
The law provides that "in cases of emergency when the interference found or expected in good order, cleanliness, tranquility and public safety requires it", the prefect can "commandeer any property or service, require any person required to operate this service.
The 12 refineries in the country are paralyzed and several blocked fuel depots, sometimes temporarily, in actions which have become the main means of pressure in the protest against the reform plans to reduce the minimum retirement age to retirement from 60 to 62 years.
The CAC 40 moves upward slowly but surely the psychological threshold of 3800 points. Today, the trend is in effect an opening in decline, despite the close up on Wall Street, supported by good results from Citigroup, Apple or IBM. But industrial output unexpectedly fell and Asian stock markets move in a disorganized Tuesday morning.
On the macroeconomic front, the number of start-ups in September will be announced at 8:45 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. The European Central Bank will present the balance of payments Euro area (10 hours). Around 14 o'clock, the European Commission in Brussels will present proposals on reforming the EU budget.The idea of a European tax could be revived.
In the U.S., one indicator is on the agenda this Tuesday: the housing starts and building permits in September (1430).
On the currency markets, the euro remains below the $ 1.40 to precisely 1.3903 (-0.44%).
Computers and power supervision
As for values, investors will follow especially energy companies, after France began to dip into its oil stocks to compensate for disruptions in fuel supplies caused by strikes at refineries, including those of Total.
The markets will also be attentive to the values computer, after the publication of results from Apple and IBM.
PSA and BMW are expanding their cooperation in hybrids
PSA Peugeot Citroën and BMW announced Monday night that they would extend their cooperation in hybrid vehicles but did not disclose financial details.
Havas reported Monday in an acceleration of its business in the third quarter thanks to a rebound in France and a return to positive growth in the Asia Pacific for the good performance of China and India.
Aeroports de Paris said Monday it posted a 5.2% increase in passenger traffic in September, driven mainly by flights in association with the Middle East and Africa make quick cash.
Soitec said Monday expect a net operating profit on the entire first half of 2010-2011, following a sustained demand in the second quarter from the automakers and manufacturers of mobile phones.
Steria has revised its annual goals down on Monday night, relying on organic growth in sales of around 1% in 2010 against an earlier indication of 1.4%. Services company in computer engineering is now targeting an operating margin of around 7% this year, against 7.3% previously.
Compagnie des Alpes announced Monday that it would take an approximate 45% stake in the Futuroscope, for 63 million euros, becoming the largest shareholder in the third largest leisure park in France.
April Group on Monday issued a revenue decline in the first nine months of the year, hit by weakness in the segment of insurance. Sales of the insurer are listed down 9.8% to 556.5 million euros.
Results: the turn of Radiall Edenred and Pierre et Vacances
Guyenne et Gascogne reported Monday in a persistently sluggish consumption for the third quarter, although its network of French supermarkets pulled the pin of the game franchise of Carrefour believes that its Spanish subsidiary will release for its "no problem majority "of the recent crisis.
Transgene Monday issued a turnover in nine months by 11.1 million euros.The biotechnology company, which states have a cash of about 194 million euros at end September, confirming it was on track to bring to market its first product in 2015.
Cellectis has signed, through its subsidiary Cellectis Plant Sciences, a license agreement with Midwest Oliseeds for the plant transformation technology of the American.
Radiall, before trading, and Edenred, after market, will publish their turnover for the third quarter. Pierre et Vacances will present the fourth quarter after-hours trading.
Anglo Irish Bank is "too big to fail". So the government is mobilizing to help him, at the cost of deteriorating public finances. The Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan warned that the cost of the bailout AIB will raise the government deficit in Ireland to 32% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year.
"There will be a very important leap in the public deficit in 2010 because of our support to the banking system, which will total nearly 20% of GDP," the minister said in a statement, adding that this would bring the deficit public "about 32% of GDP" this year, instead of the 11.6% forecast last December.
And the Irish government debt will also soar to 98.6% of GDP this year to raw data, against 64% in late 2009, the minister said.
However, the minister wanted reassurance and he said that the state would not need to borrow additional funds to cover this deficit exorbitant because it has sufficient cash reserves.But he added that the government should further savings next year, beyond the 3 billion euros minimum on which he already foresaw.
Brian Lenihan has also ensured that Ireland remained "firmly committed" to bring its deficit below 3% of GDP in 2014, as she had promised the European Commission announcing that he would present "early November" a plan fiscal consolidation over 4 years to fulfill this goal.
Rescue Anglo Irish 34 billion
It must be said that Anglo Irish bank is a real money pit. The Irish Central Bank has estimated 34 billion cost of the rescue of Anglo Irish Bank, in the worst case scenario and to 29.3 billion euros in the best case payday loan lenders.
Anglo Irish Bank addition, the state will also help the Allied Irish Banks group to recapitalize more than expected, becoming its majority shareholder in passing. The Central Bank has calculated qu'Allied Irish, who had already increased its capital by 7.4 billion euros this year, should raise an additional 3 billion by the end of December.
Never two without three! The Irish government will also have to increase its aid to the mutual bank Irish Nationwide (INBS), nationalized in the spring and had already recapitalized to the tune of 2.7 billion euro, said Brian Lenihan.The state will pay an equivalent sum, subject to the Brussels agreement, bringing to 5.4 billion euros are pumped into the facility.
No help from Europe
Ireland may solve the problem bank "without recourse to the European rescue, said Thursday the leader of the finance ministers of the euro area, Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker.
Already yesterday, the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn, said that Ireland must do without any emergency financial aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, and recalling the EU position .The Commissioner had also said the country should undertake reforms to achieve savings of several billion euros by 2014.
ALSO READ:
"Anglo Irish Bank, the bank threatens Ireland
"Ireland is about to face the market
"Ireland did not need help (Juncker)
France Televisions response to the attacks of TF1, which requires compensation to the maintenance of advertising after 20 hours of the public service channels and denounces the "outperformance" of recent trade.
For public group chaired by Rémy Pflimlin, it is wrong to assert that "advertising before 20 hours is more important today than two years ago." The group says, in effect, that if the number of spots broadcast reached 238,000 in 2008, it had dropped to 215,000 in 2009 and 130,000 in the first half of 2010. Regarding sponsorship, he was "77 million euros in revenue in 2008 against 72.6 million in 2009 and 39.8 million in the first half of 2010." Finally, France Televisions loudly denies the charge of "dumping" prices.If the group publicly acknowledges that "gross advertising rates on France Televisions are 28% cheaper than those of TF1," he also notes that "the average net cost GRP four channels of France Televisions on the target housewife least fifty years is 2% higher than that of TF1 and 30% higher than the M6 one hour payday loan.
However, France Televisions is willing to correct the "illusion effect" of the viewer regarding a sponsorship that would be too far.The public group is willing to limit it to civic causes and community service.
That said, in the corridors of France Televisions, one can not help but note "the contradiction of a speech" which "is to complain of too well the public broadcasting group while claiming loudly that TF1 does no revenue problem for 2010, quite the contrary. "
ALSO READ:
"Bars on France Televisions: requirements of TF1 and M6
A two-year reprieve for advertising on France Televisions
"France Televisions exceeded its targets pub
The UMP fully supports the pension reform and its author, Eric Woerth. To prove his spokesmen have held a press conference, while the Social Affairs Committee of the Assembly had finished examining the text. Dominique Paille, who usually wears a refined language, attacked with vigor to Jean-Marc Ayrault. He accused the owner of PS members to behave in "real filibuster" which "seeks to scuttle the debate by completely unnecessary intrusion. "Those who come to break the menu with shameful look at considerations before intervening in the debate!" He said in a fit of male outrage.
The PS group had set the tone early work of the commission, promising to "constantly incidents meeting" with allusions to the case Bettencourt.The operation was supposed to prove that Eric Woerth was too "weak" to defend the reform. It has not achieved its goal, much to the relief of the UMP.
But the majority knows that it is not the end of his sentences. And many of its leaders are beginning to say that "we" had "made a mistake in the text referring to the back, instead of extending the session to push through July 31. "On", Raymond Soubie. The office of the adviser had convinced Elysee Nicolas Sarkozy to let the summer to prove his readiness for dialogue with unions, while Francois Fillon would rather go fast. The Prime Minister has not been heard. An MP close to him sigh: "In the end, unions have the summer to replenish their unity in a climate rotten history Bettencourt.Of course, what happens in Woerth was not foreseeable, but we know that in France the reform was.
One minister argued
In the Assembly, but also in the executive, some whisper Eric Woerth would do well to "shoot himself the consequences of damage it causes" to his political family. Clearly, to resign, but his departure could be in any way be attributed to Nicolas Sarkozy. "The president supports his minister doggedly, and will not do anything that might suggest that he wants to get rid of, explains it to the UMP. But nothing prevents Woerth demand a cease-fire. "
Apparently, the Minister of Labour is not in that frame of mind. Encouraged by the demonstrations of solidarity that come each day of his camp, he makes a point of honor to lead the reform of pensions. The leaders of the majority will therefore help.The delay until September consideration of amendments on the hardship, including those signed by Xavier Bertrand, part of the strategy. In case of back politically and socially turbulent, the government will need room for negotiation.
While the Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed until Wednesday included due to public holidays in Japan, the Asian markets all move in the red on Monday.
Hong Kong drops 1.36% to 20,821.20 points, 0.91% cedes Taiwan to 7391.74 points, Seoul lost 1.22%, 0.58% in Sydney coward 4779.50 points, fell by Bombay 0 53% to 17,464.90 points and Singapore shows a decrease of 0.98% to 2945.34 points.
Despite the activation of a massive bailout of Greece announced on Sunday by finance ministers of the euro area, markets do not regain confidence. They are worried about further increases in reserve requirements of banks in China, 50 basis points. Banks will therefore retain 14-17% of their loans in chests. This measure, which takes effect next May 10, is supposed to limit loans to individuals and businesses to avoid the overheating of the Chinese economy.This is the third increase since the beginning of the year.
The banking and real estate values at half
Consequently, the evolving Chinese banking stocks down sharply, on Monday, including Bank of China, which fell by 1.72%. Regarding property values, China Resources fell 4.97%, Shimao Property Holdings sells 2.47% Agile Property Holdings or drops 2.17%.
A barrel of oil above $ 86
Crude prices were up Monday in Asia after the announcement of the plan of aid to Greece and because of a probable decline in U.S. production in the wake of the oil spill in the United States.
In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for June delivery took 16 cents to 86.31 dollars, while Brent North Sea with identical maturity, gained 13 cents to 87.57 dollars.
In an email sent Wednesday to news agencies that Credit Agricole has made the announcement. The financial institution said its commitments related to the Greek state reached 850 million euros, 600 million for its Greek subsidiary Emporiki. No further comment was made.
The news comes as the crisis Greek climbed a step, revived by the relegation of the country score in the category of speculative investments by the rating agency Standard & Poor's. Many analysts believe that Credit Agricole is one of the banks most exposed to the current crisis in Greece.
More generally, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the French banks in Europe are most concerned with exposure estimated at 75.12 billion dollars (57 billion euros), followed by German banks with exposure estimated at 45 billion dollars (34 billion euros).
French banks are the only institutions to have bought Greek Emporiki to Credit Agricole and Societe Generale for Geniki. The latter has not yet discussed the amount of its commitment.For its part, the general manager of BNP Paribas, Baudouin Prot, said Wednesday that his institution's exposure to Greek banks was "absolutely negligible" fast cash loans.
The sector battered stock market
The markets are in any case a very dim view of the involvement of French banks in a country attacked by the rating agencies. Investors fear that such consequences could lead to default or restructure the debt of Greece.
Results: The bank is breaking titles in stock. The action of the Credit Agricole fell 3.41% Wednesday to the Paris Stock Exchange, after declining more than 7.6% during the session. It lost 9.57% over the five days and 10.60% since the beginning of the year.
Societe Generale has limited the damage on Wednesday with a decline of 0.33% in closing. But the fall is much heavier since January 1 of that Credit Agricole, with a decline of 16.42%.
For its part, BNP Paribas dropped 3.48% on Wednesday at the close of Paris, and 8.80% since the beginning of the year.
ALSO READ:
"GREEK FILE – Debt: A Challenge for Europe
"Exchange: Greece hurts banking
According to the index comprises the 50 largest capitalization in the Asia-Pacific, the S & P Asia, the trend is down slightly, from 0.23% to 3039 points to 7 hours, one day after closing without trend Wall Street.
In Japan, the Nikkei 2005 advance him, of 0.36%, 11,136 points, breaking yet another record 18 months after already rising the previous day. The weak yen Dopen export values.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index plaice 0.13% at 21,346 points while the Shanghai CSI 300 loose 0.29% at 3357 points amid profit taking.
In Sydney, the S & P / ASX similarly lost 0.27% at 4903 points. The values of construction and saddled the financial index.While the flagship index of New Zealand rose 0.4% to 3262 points.
Oil side, in morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for May delivery yielded six hundred U.S. dollars to 82.31 while Brent North Sea with identical maturity took a cent to 81.29 dollars low fee payday advance.
Toyota setting sales surge
Sales in the United States of Japanese automaker Toyota, which fell in January and February in the wake of massive recalls, could have rebounded 35% in March on a year through a series of promotions, said Tuesday a spokesman for the group.
In Australia, MacArthur Coal soared (+14.6%) while the group has received an offer of 3.3 billion Australian dollars from an American mining group Peadoby Energy Corp., which he refused.
Also in the continental countries, BHP Billiton down 0.8% after the group was awarded with steel producers to fix prices of short-term contracts for coking coal.
Rio Tinto up 0.6% while four employees have been harshly sentenced to prison two days ago. The Australians have doubts about the conditions of the trial held in China.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia lost 0.4%.
