For the second time since 2009, Spain fell into recession. The Spanish economy has indeed contracted 0.3% in first quarter 2012 compared to end 2011, according to preliminary official figures released Monday. It is however slightly better than expected: the Spanish Central Bank expected a 0.4% decline in activity over the period.

After degradation of the Spanish note by Standard & Poor's, the publication of a record unemployment rate in March and fears more acute in the health of banks, the bad news accumulates in Madrid.

In the first quarter of 2012, only exports and tourism have supported activity. But their strength was more than offset by the effects of the austerity plan introduced by the center-right government of Mariano Rajoy, of unprecedented severity. Moreover, the cleanup of a long over-indebted economy, household businesses through the state, beating down domestic consumption. The proposed increase in VAT, under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, should accentuate this trend.

"The austerity trap"

So much so that the International Labor Organization (ILO), in its report published on Monday, sets up Spain as an example not to follow a policy solely focused on rigor. She stressed that "the deficit was reduced by just over 9% of GDP in 2010 to 8.5% of GDP in 2011: a very small reduction after a drastic austerity program." For 2012, the government had to moderate its deficit reduction target, it expects to either 4.4% but 5.3% of GDP, given the deteriorating situation. For the ILO, "the trap of austerity is being shut down."

The Spanish economy should continue to suffer, economists fear. "We expect an acceleration of the recession in the coming quarters, in parallel with the rise of austerity measures," said Evelyn Herrmann, economist at BNP Paribas. "Things should get worse before it gets better," says Martin van Vliet, of ING Bank.

Unemployment, already at a record level of 24.44%, should continue to climb. It should eventually reach more of an asset over four in Spain, provides the analyst consensus. Symbol of the Spanish slump, the construction industry, long time driver of the economy because of swelling of the housing bubble, should continue to lay off. It accounts for another 9% of employment, against 6% on average in the eurozone.  

Fears on banks

"The worsening situation on the labor market will have a particularly negative impact on banks," notes Ricardo Santos, an expert in Southern Europe at BNP Paribas. "The share of loans" non-performing "(that is to say, threatening never to be repaid, Ed) is expected to increase and represent 9% in late 2012." To which are added 176 billion euros inventory of buildings and land "problem", that is to say to the uncertain value, as counted from the Spanish Central Bank. Country's only hope in the short term, the "Marshall Plan" for growth in project and unveiled in Brussels on Saturday by the daily El Pais. According to him, he is expected to reach 200 billion euros, or 4% of GDP of the European Union. But Brussels has denied, insisting that these figures "had no basis."  

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A textile company, for lack of sewers it needs for its plant in Quimper, creates a pathway of learning to train its future recruits? The SME Armor Lux, well known for its white wine, made the headlines this week, at a time when all candidates for president are the re-industrialization of the country one of their campaign themes.

This situation is not isolated and number of industrial jobs – welders, boilermakers, milling … – are pulling their hair to find candidates and encourage vocations. "There is a real paradox between a high level of unemployment in France and companies who are not candidates for positions in recruitment, whether welders, millers, coppersmiths, payroll technicians, seamstresses …. In total we estimate that roughly fifty so-called shortage occupations. In our business we miss about 30% of requests from our customers because we do not have the resources and this situation has been deteriorating for a decade, notes François Beharel, group president of Randstad and staffing agencies. Concretely, this means that our group could generate 30% of turnover and more. "

For him, the problem is essentially related to the collective image What these professions in public opinion. "We imagine that in the textile industry and is like 50 years ago, while the environment has changed, that wages were revised upwards and that career paths are possible." "We have to get into people's heads, and young people in particular, that the industry is clean and not necessarily noisy. In this regard, the construction was successful for several years to reverse its bad image, "says Anne-Marie Bjornson, Director of Transitions AFPA.

Develop learning

A UIMM, Joel Mendez, Director Employment and Training, said that one communicates primarily on job losses. Yet in all sectors of metallurgy, the recruitment needs estimated over the period 2007-2015 are always evaluated. Between 60,000 and 80,000 jobs per year, including 30 to 40% reserved for graduates, according to a study by the study-which will be updated in early 2012 over a 2013 to 2020 -. "There is a big educational effort and support to achieve with the companies to become more involved in processes of looking management of jobs and skills (GPEC) and assessing their future needs" says he.

According to Anne-Marie Bjornson Afpa transitions, there are ways to mount training particularly in the context of operational readiness to employment (job center) or as part of training contracts. "We are also working on the issue of transferable skills, which allow for example to a textile worker to work in the weld or a working precision to go in the car." But anticipating needs is a prerequisite and essential step, she insists.

For Joel Mendez, it is also essential to adapt the training devices to the needs, both in initial training in continuing education. And take the example of learning where the numbers in the branch of metallurgy grew 6% in 2011 (with a total of 26 000 apprentices). "At the last school year, nearly a thousand offers of learning could not be met and at the same time, the same volume of young people did not find any company. This shows that learning can be further developed and the various mechanisms put in place recently should help solve these problems. "

A situation that in any case, Francis led Beharel hammering: "stop sending generations of young people in jobs without opportunities. Spend money to know that jobs are to be filled with real careers, especially if the areas are not attractive. "

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Born primarily the desire to escape the influence of the United States and Europe, the group of Brics, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is still seeking an identity. For now, the five emerging economies, which account for 40% of world population and weigh almost a quarter of global GDP, have in common especially their insolent growth. A favorable economic foundation for greater integration, but that has yet to consolidate.

More ambitiously, the desire to define a common diplomacy is squarely a figment of the imagination, as are large differences within the Brics international political crises. Not to mention the simmering conflict between India and China, who have not settled their border issues.

Nevertheless, the Brics are taking shape. And the fourth summit of the five emerging countries to be held Thursday in New Delhi could lead to some concrete decisions. "The Brics are a unique group. It is not based on geography, as the European Union (EU) or the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN), "notes Sudhir Vyas, Secretary for Economic Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Delhi. Adding: "Beyond their role as drivers of global growth, the five countries are united in their desire to seek durable solutions to global challenges, they can afford."

Although Beijing and New Delhi have revised their growth forecasts downwards, the two capitals show figures to be the envy of Europe and the U.S.: + 7.5% of GDP increase in China this year + 6.9% in India. According to a report released Wednesday by Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank, India could become the world's largest economy by 2050. "China will overtake the U no teletrack payday loans.S. in 2020, and will be overtaken in turn by India in 2050," analysts said.

Compete with the dollar

Wednesday, the eve of the summit, trade ministers of Brics had several working sessions in New Delhi. "The consequences of the financial crisis (in Europe) affect everyone. We must work together to overcome the problem, "said the Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry, Anand Sharma. Chen Deming, his Chinese counterpart, dearer: "It is urgently necessary to prevent the crisis in the European Union is escalating."

The agenda of the summit of Brics is vast. It only last a few hours, in a transformed Indian capital into a fortress. It will discuss food security, health, but also the puzzle of the Iranian nuclear and Syria. The highlight, however, will create a "bank of Brics", already nicknamed "South-South Bank." The project, proposed by the Indians, is still in its infancy. But the idea is timely then that the Brics seek to formalize their lives by forging institutions.

Bank of Brics would particularly called upon to finance infrastructure projects in developing countries. It is also a great way to circumvent the euro and the dollar … the benefit of the Chinese currency. This is not to please all members of the group. Brazil, in particular, complained about the undervaluation of the yuan. "This project shows that bank emerging attempt to withdraw from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, which are dominated by Westerners," says John Mashaka for its part, an analyst at Wells Fargo Capital Markets.

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Nicolas Sarkozy gradually draws its economic project and incorporated last night during his speech in "Capital", a measure to end a specificity very French, that EU rules are still emphasize: the proliferation of standards, which hold back activity and increase the cost of everyday life. "The standards, they are 4-5 points higher expenditure in GDP," he insisted.

"If the French trust me, in the next five years, whenever a minister will propose a new standard, it will remove two old standards," he said. And the Economic, Social and Environmental will be "the guarantor of that commitment." At European level, would have "the same rule applies [...] It will convince" our partners, said the president candidate.

"Five temperatures according to the dishes"

And to demonstrate the absurdity of some of these standards, the latter did not hesitate to embark on a series of examples: a herd of cows "can not drink in the river" that goes on in their field for ecological reasons, there are "five temperatures according to the dishes" in the restoration, a local breastfeeding in a company must have "3 meter high ceiling" … Examples like these could increase, amounting to Nicolas Sarkozy 200,000 the number of French standards and the number of 20 000 European standards. 

Inflation regulations is a recurring complaint of local elected officials: the proliferation of standards on the environment, urban planning, accessibility of the disabled, or food in school canteens, leaden local finances. The bill would give them about 600 million euros a year, according to the Advisory Commission evaluation standards (NECC).

In fact, a moratorium on the standards had been established by the Government in July 2010 but it had proved ineffective. A bill by Senator Eric UMP Doligé then acts as recently new weapon to fight against the proliferation of standards – the text provides that they can vary depending on community size. But given the parliamentary calendar, it could not be examined in the Assembly before the legislative elections of June 2012. Yesterday was a measure that goes further brought forward by Nicolas Sarkozy.

Nicolas Sarkozy's promise to the workers and employees is clear: lowering of 4 billion euros labor costs at the minimum wage, will increase their take home pay. To finance the measure without worsening deficits, it intends to eliminate the employment bonus (PPE) and increase the taxation of dividends. A device that is the electorate.

]]> http://amarnathindustries.com/low-wages-the-idea-of-%e2%80%8b%e2%80%8bsarkozy-under-scrutiny/feed/ 0 http://amarnathindustries.com/small-employers-hiring-freeze/ http://amarnathindustries.com/small-employers-hiring-freeze/#comments Tue, 21 Feb 2012 08:20:54 +0000 admin http://amarnathindustries.com/small-employers-hiring-freeze/  

Small businesses with fewer than 20 employees (TPE) through a difficult period. "They are in survival mode. They no longer have the slow growth of France, said Jean-Marc Jaumouillé, director of professional techniques in Fiducial. They suffered more in 2011 than in 2008 and 2009. They did not contribute to wealth creation in the second half of last year. Only 20% showed an increase in their revenues above inflation. "

According to the 45th quarterly barometer of TPE made by Ifop for Fiducial, small employers have not created jobs last year. 82% have stabilized their numbers. 10% have cut jobs. They are only 7% have increased their staff. "This is one of the worst year for employment since 2002," says Jean-Marc Jaumouillé.

Small employers monitor carefully the evolution of the payroll. They were limited to 1.7% wage increases for their employees last year. However, the situation varies across sectors. A company has upgraded four of less than 1% wages. 18% gave an increase of more than 4%. They are all to have frozen wages.

Assuming a stabilization of their sales in the first quarter, small businesses are cautious for 2012. The average wage increases should be limited to 1.2%. But 42% of small employers that will provide zero or less than 1%. "One good sign. For the first time since 2008, a perceived tightening of access to credit has fallen to 15% while it was never dropped below 20% since 2008, "says Jean-Marc Jaumouillé.

Employees overtime takers

While the debate on working time is one of the key topics of the presidential campaign, half of the patrons of TPE (49%) practice a working week not exceeding 35 hours, against 44% in October 2007 . One in ten exceeds 39 hours, against 21% in October 2007. "The law Tepa introduced in August 2007 that would allow firms to relax the 35 hours has had limited impact. She did not call for air hoped, "says Jean-Marc Jaumouillé.

As in October 2007, 47% of businesses use regularly to overtime. TPE over eight in ten (82%) pay them according to the legal scale. One in three places recoveries. One in five exceptional bonuses.

For their part, employees are increasingly likely to want to work overtime. They are 55% to 26% against the wish five years ago.

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Analysts saw in recent weeks that the Italian bond market suffered from a premium of distrust Berlusconi estimated at 100 basis points (1 percentage point) on the rates of government bonds to 10 years. Not surprisingly, the announcement of his impending departure should have been welcomed by a substantial amount of rates.

Bluff or not, this threat reveals the uneasiness of the Federation kiwi affected financially by the organization of the current World Cup. Certainly, the event is almost historic land of the long white cloud. But the financial benefits expected from this great mass of world rugby is limited. In the end, New Zealand will lose even money (about 39 million New Zealand dollars, or 22.33 million euros).The New Zealand government will pay part of the losses, but the federation itself will also put their hands in the pocket to the tune of two thirds of the money lost.

Shortfall of 7.5 million euros

However, these losses are organizing a one-time difficulties. Because the real malaise lies elsewhere. Steve Tew, it's participation in the competition itself that is the problem. Every 4 years, federations qualified in the northern hemisphere and the south need to change their schedule (suppression test matches, shortening the Tri Nations tournament …). What cause a shortfall in terms of result and television advertising revenue and ticket sales. This year's Tri-Nations tournament, in which compete each year in New Zealand, Australia and South Africa, for example, was reduced from nine to six games due to World Cup.In Europe, the fall tours were also canceled.

In a World trade rules of the International Rugby Board (IRB) also prohibit the presence of the sponsors of the national federations. This accentuates the downward pressure on commercial benefits. In the end, the Federation of New Zealand (NZRU) said the shortfall related to participation in a 13 million New Zealand dollars (7.5 million). Great on a budget of around 55 million euros. A price she can afford all four years, according to Steve Tew.

If they win the All-Blacks, the players would receive such a bonus of 55,000 euros, depending on the site sportune.fr. Barely more than the French players to touch the earth just move in New Zealand (45,000 euros).If they win the XV of France, the French would also reward of 180,000 euros extra.

Australia to support

In his threat to boycott, leaders of New Zealand have received support from their neighbor Australia. For its part, the Australian Federation (ARU) said the losses associated with participation in the World Cup to 16 million Australian dollars (about 11.5 million euros). All federations combined, the overall shortfall would reach between 35 and 40 million pounds (40 to 16 million euros). "As noted by Steve Tew, the current economic model is unacceptable and can not be encouraged," said the general manager of the ARU, John O'Neill.We ask the IRB to resolve the problem quickly, because as a national federation, the ARU can not afford to have huge losses every four years. "

For many, the threat of New Zealand is not serious, its national team can not really do without the visibility provided by the participation in the World Cup. But the argument did fly, the IRB had promised the opening of discussions after the World Cup to avoid a radical decision.

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For now, the markets show their confidence in the ability of the euro area to help Athens to prevent the country are lacking, and is forced out of the single currency. At the end of their conference, the Franco-German and was convinced "that the place of Greece is well and truly in the euro area." But on one condition, also very explicit: "The implementation of strict and effective recovery program of the Greek economy supported by the countries of the euro area and the IMF and which conditions the disbursement of future tranches of the program. "George Papandreou was quick to deceive, confirming" the absolute determination of his government to take all necessary measures to implement all commitments. "For the budget minister Valérie Pécresse, what the Prime Minister of Greece were "reassured" the euro area, she said on Thursday LCI.

The U.S. maintains pressure on Europe

To this, add the announcement of the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) said on Wednesday they could increase their holdings of bonds denominated in euros. Brazil has such willingness to participate in a "global effort" against the economic crisis that affects rich countries, said the same day the President of Brazil Dilma Rousseff. Meanwhile, Italy, whose rates have soared during bond, has denied media reports that she would have asked China to invest in debt.

U.S. side, however, no way to release the pressure on Europe.It "must do more" in the words of Timothy Geithner, U.S. Treasury Secretary, who must participate in a meeting Friday of finance ministers in Europe. In an interview Wednesday on the financial channel CNBC, he considers, however, that the Europeans "has the capacity" to resolve the crisis, seeing as a good thing that they "recognize that they are late."

Note that Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the IMF, should give a speech in Washington on "Challenges and solutions for the global economy and the IMF" to 16 hours. While Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, should speak at a conference in Washington on the regulation of systemic risk in the early afternoon.

Oil prices continue to fall

On the macroeconomic front, figures on employment in the euro zone for the second quarter are expected, and inflation in August.

In France, the trade deficit is expected to reach 75 billion euros this year, a new sad record after the 56 billion euros recorded in 2008, says Les Echos.

For its part, Spain on Thursday to conduct a bond issue.

Finally, many figures are expected in the U.S., including inflation for the month of August, the current account balance in the second quarter, the weekly claims for unemployment and industrial production for the month of August .

On the foreign exchange market, the euro appears down 0.16% to 1.372 dollar on Thursday. In turn, oil prices continued to fall, after figures showing a decline in demand for refined products in the United States, and while the markets remain worried about the situation in the euro zone, analysts said.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October lost 43 cents to 88.48 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 53 cents to 111.87 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

The banking sector, including Societe Generale (0.29% to 17.43 euros), BNP Paribas (1.04% to 27.18 euros) and Credit Agricole (1.80 to 5.31%) will be once again scrutinized by investors. The crisis became systemic, according to a document sent to the European Union finance ministers and obtained by Reuters, which also recommended a further strengthening of bank resources. In addition, two out of three French believe that the weakening of the banking sector related to the debt crisis could threaten their economies, according to a CSA poll released Wednesday to Les Echos.

• LVMH (1.25% to 113.20 euros)

The group announced Wednesday it had chosen Jordi Constans, come to Danone, to succeed Yves Carcelle at the head of Louis Vuitton in 2013.

• ArcelorMittal (2.68% to 13.23 euros)

The company promised to stop its steel plant in Florange (Moselle) would be temporary, said Wednesday the French government.

• Areva (2.04% to 21 euros)

The nuclear expert will present its strategic plan in early December through improved operational performance, an adjustment of investment and possible asset sales, said its president of dirctoire in an interview for Echoes.

• Publicis (0.56% to 30.66 euros)

The group announced Thursday the acquisition of 100% stake in a public relations agency in the United States, Schwartz Communications, which specializes in technology and health, for an undisclosed sum.

• Bouygues (0.53% to 24.86 euros)

Wednesday, Bouygues Construction, through the company Eirene, delivered the first 53 service centers and respond to the DIT (Directorate of transport infrastructure under the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transportation and housing), according to Reuters.Eirene now provides maintenance and management of these buildings for 28 years.

• Technip (0.76% to 67.89 euros)

The French group of Petroleum Engineering has won a contract for facilities ammonia-urea fertilizer in Port-Gentil (west of Gabon), from Gabon Fertilizers Company, said in a statement.

• Cellectis (6.02% to 5.99 euros)

The company will acquire the Swedish company Cellartis specialist tools for research and development in vitro derived stem cells, as part of a contract valuing the approximately 33.8 million.

• Hermes

The luxury group said that trading in its title would be suspended Thursday pending the decision of the Court of Appeal of Paris on the exemption granted by the AMF on the buyout of minority interests.