International News

Republicans and Democrats tear each other apart in Washington for several weeks to avoid economic and financial catastrophe. The draft plan expected Sunday night was supposed to at least prevent markets open Monday morning in Asia, the dollar collapses. Since mid-May, when the debt ceiling up to 14,300 Treasury billion was reached, investors have been remarkably patient. But tired of political impasse, however, they could start selling U.S. Treasury securities and cause a sudden rise in bond yields.

Beyond the immediate threat looming two major systemic risks. Chronologically, the first is that of a selective defect of the Treasury. The latter says that beyond the August 2, it will no longer have sufficient liquidity to pay all its bills.The only way to continue to pay both current expenses such as salaries of civil servants, pensions of the elderly, as well as interest and principal on its debt, is to issue new bonds. $ 87 billion of federal government bonds maturing on August 4. It can only do that by issuing new shares. For this, it must have the authority of Congress as the upper limit of 14,300 billion debt would be exceeded.

Risk of asphyxiation

Without authority to do so, the treasure is August 3 in a position to "selective default" is to say, forced to choose which to honor its debts. Even putting hundreds of thousands of civil servants laid off to focus on pensioners and holders of government bonds, the Treasury can hardly make time.Uncle Sam is, in fact, take roughly 42% of what it spends. If he can not borrow, it quickly asphyxiated. This asphyxiation born a global crisis of confidence, the stock market crashes and bond, a collapse in domestic demand in the U.S. and global recession. The enormity of the threat calls for a last-minute compromise, reducing public spending, paving the way for a poll under the ceiling of the debt.

The second danger is less serious, but the probability is much higher: it is the degradation of the AAA rating given to the debt of the United States. American paper would no longer be the instrument chosen by the risk-free banks and investors around the world to park their cash. The returns required by investors to hold bonds tarnished increase.An increase of one percent of these returns would result in $ 150 billion more than annual burden of debt for the Treasury.

The three major agencies have warned the White House and Congress: America does not deserve to keep the rating the best expense only if it engages in a credible plan to reduce the medium to long term its debt. It is therefore possible that next month, noting that the compromise that made it possible to raise the debt ceiling is accompanied only by inadequate measures of savings, one or more agencies degrade America.

European banks may need to raise 80 billion euros, to reassure the markets. A report by JPMorgan Cazenove, led by analyst Kian Abouhossein, estimates that if the level of reserve requirements is strictly adhered to 7%, nearly two banks will raise new money. French banks Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole would need twenty billion euros, against 25 billion for UK institutions and 14 billion euros for German lenders, including Deutsche Bank. The Italian UniCredit, Credit Suisse and Santander are also cited in the report by JPMorgan Cazenove.

This study revealed the results of stress tests published last Friday by the EBA.These tests, built on capital requirements as 5%, entered into a need to refinance 2.5 billion euros for eight of the 90 banks assessed, including any French. But investors believe these tests inadequate, particularly criticizing for not sufficiently taken into account the default risk in Greece. JPMorgan Cazenove said the criticism in his study, indicating that these stress tests have "limited value".

The evolution of banking stocks on European stock markets will be very observed on Monday morning to find Investors Arbitration between the reassuring results of stress tests and numerical study of JPMorgan. In March, ratings agency Standard & Poor's had conducted its own tests of resistance.His conclusion: European banks would need 250 billion euros of additional capital.

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The difference is certainly on the thickness of the line but it still twists his neck to popular belief. An evaluation of the Ministry of Labour with the redeployment of unemployed Le Figaro has obtained, employment center gets better results that private placement (OPP) to which the accompaniment of hundreds of thousands of job seekers job was outsourced. In other words, the public would be more effective than the private sector to find new jobs for the unemployed.

This assessment focuses on two categories of job seekers who have benefited, in November 2009 and March 2010, a reinforced support: the unemployed far removed from the market (long-term, seniors …) and CTP-fired economic CRP (devices for one year guaranteeing a subsidy equivalent to 80% of the last gross wage). Just under 5000 people were interviewed.In both cases, the rate of return to work thirteen months after the start of the support is higher for employment center.

47% of retrenched in CTP-CRP followed by public service employment benefit and employment (employed or not), against 43% for those followed by a private placement (employment agency, company … reclassification). Less than one in three point still unemployed after thirteen months, against 38% for a PPO. The private sector, which offers support more regular and reinforced, in the end proves better than the public service on one point: the rate of CDI won, higher than 5 points to the result displayed by employment center.

More CDI

The difference is greater for the second cohort of unemployed: the unemployed far removed from the labor market.49% are employed and thirteen months after the start of their employment center for support, against 43% for those followed by a PPO. Unlike the retrenched, the CDI rate is even higher in the public service (44% against 39%). Worse, the number of unemployed, thirteen months after the start of the accompaniment, are higher in PPOs (45% against 41%).

These results revive the controversy over the use of OPP – the cost of an unemployed investment returns twice as expensive (2200 euros on average per year, against 1100 at employment center) – to relieve the crews of the public service of employment in case of downturn. The popular option is to use only an "outsourcing of specialty", on a more targeted, less numerous and where the added value of OPP is proven. Should, in this case, review their terms of payment by paying more in income.PPOs now affecting half of their performance in support of an unemployed, 25% when in use and 25% if there is still six months later. The idea is often put forward to move to a 35% share in the care and placement for 65% effective (against today 50/50). A useful discussion since the OPP always accompany nearly 150,000 job seekers.

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"Avada Kedavra!" From the Aramaic "adhadda kedhabhra" meaning "that the thing be destroyed", the magic world of Harry Potter describes perfectly how the saga has shelved the James Bond and Other War stars of a economic point of view. On the eve of the release of the eighth and final installment of the series in dark rooms ("Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"), the figures give the spin: in total, the first seven films have generated some 6 , $ 4 billion (4.4 billion euros) in revenue worldwide, according to the U.S. studios Warner Bros. By itself, the first film adaptation in 2001 was worth almost a billion dollars.

Most successful in the history of cinema, the adventures of the bespectacled wizard is also the most successful global publishing.Since the release of first installment, "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" in 1997, over 400 million books were sold, having been translated into 69 languages ​​and 200 territories.

Consequence of its popularity, the saga has been an all-out merchandising. In all, video games and other clothing, stuffed animals and candy bearing the image of the heroes of the series would yield more than a billion a year, according to AFP. In June 2010, a theme park has even opened its doors in the United States. Stamped "The Wizarding World of Harry Potter" ("The Wizarding World of Harry Potter"), the attraction has cost $ 200 million, and would experience a growing success since its opening.

20 million books sold in France

Well represented in the saga (including the Academy of Magic Beaubâtons), France has not escaped this wave.According Gallimard Jeunesse, which has an exclusive publishing contract, the figure of 20 million copies sold recently passed. In the dark rooms of the Hexagon, the adventures of Harry made a card, even if the number of entries went out over the decrescendo. The first movie ("Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone") has attracted some 9.4 million entries, against almost 6 million for the first part of the seventh installment.

Olivier Snanoudj, vice president of Warner Bros France, the decline in the number of entries "not surprising" since, over the episodes, movies, like the books have become "increasingly dark ". "As a young child, and by extension their parents or grandparents, came to the movies less," said he. This does not prevent targeting "a minimum" the bar of the six million tickets for the final film in the series."All fans want to see the end" of the adventures of young wizard, he bet.

Gallimard reissued the series in October

Display, advertisements in the press, promotion on the Internet … Nothing in any case been left to chance to boost inflows. Thus, the film was scheduled at the beginning of the school holidays and in the wake of the film festival, a promotional weapon of choice. Highlight of the campaign, a preview was held by Warner Bros. on Tuesday evening at the Palais Omnisports de Paris Bercy. "We installed the largest 3D screen in the world with six projectors, for an audience of 8000 people," recites the vice president of the distributor.

Via this strategy, the distributor looks forward "to revive the cash machine in particular in view of Christmas sales, or special boxes will probably days," slips a specialist.Hand books, Gallimard Jeunesse has relatively good performance of the game first, "the release of the latest installment in the film is likely to boost the sale of books, as has always been the case in the past," said Frédérique haunch, responsible for the communication of the publisher. And to project, announcing a repeat of the saga, in Volume by volume, from the month of October. With the menu, "new coverage to be carried out by the famous English designer Jonathan Gray," she says. Thus, Gallimard Jeunesse renewed the assault of a young audience, "from 8 to 10 years, as we did 15 years ago." On the commercial side, Harry Potter has not said its last word.

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"The project of the PS does not the road." The essayist Alain Minc does not beat around the bush to try the program of the Socialist Party should he win the presidential election in 2012.

In addition to his friendship with Martine Aubry, Alain Minc believes that this project is "totally unsuited to the economic situation." "This is a project that was modern in 1981!, Says in an interview with the daily Le Parisien / Today in France. Youth employment is the world of yesterday. We can not, with the blade of the debt so close to our neck, having a Keynesian program. " The essayist and remember that "debt represents 80% of our gross domestic product. 20% is what he had to do to end the crisis. The remaining 60% are the result of thirty years of accumulated cowardice, left and right wing. "

Alain Minc goes even further in his indictment.He said a victory for the Socialist Party in 2012 would be penalized by financial markets. "The application of the socialist project would lose to France's 'AAA'," says Alain Minc. If for now the rating agencies have confirmed the rating of the country, it could be questioned if France did not take more drastic measures to reduce its deficit.

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Among the various proposals of the PS, Alain Minc attacks the merger of the income tax and social contribution. It considers the measure "extremely devastating for the middle class. I have long been convinced that all European countries should increase VAT by 2%. It will not escape, "said he.

Another topic discussed: compensation of top managers.While Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon supported the measure to overtax Xavier Bertrand and Jean-Francois Cope was cautious, Alain Minc "tearing his hair" when he sees the boss of Renault, Carlos Ghosn, will reach 10 million euros for fiscal 2010. "The selfishness of the ruling classes should encourage them to be more moderate in terms of pay. I persist and sign: we must know to practice self-regulation, "says he.

On the euro, Alain Minc said the German attitude to save Greece "intelligently selfish." "If Germany was up to the Deutschmark, it would be in recession," said he.

Finally, he welcomed the appointment of Christine Lagarde to head the International Monetary Fund."It's miraculous! Obviously there was a decisive push to Sarkozy, "he enthuses.

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General mobilization. In just one week the opening of the Salon International Air and Space in Le Bourget, the site was transformed into a gigantic construction site. Some 10,000 people are at work worth tens of trades. An endless stream of 10 000 trucks carries a broom incessant. In six months, "we are building the equivalent of a town of 20,000 inhabitants has the largest restaurant in France. This temporary city for seven days receives 350,000 visitors, "says Gilles Fournier, Director General of Fair which celebrates its 49th edition.

The countdown has begun a year before. The Association of French manufacturers of aerospace and space (Gifas) entrusts its commercial arm, SIAE with l5 permanent organization of the largest airshow in the world – which takes place every two years alternating with the Farnborough event UK.The marketing of 217,000 square meters of exhibition divided between 6 halls (54,000 square meters), cottages business (35 000 sq.m.) and surface static display of aircraft (130 000 sqm) is launched. The team grows in strength and currently has 2500 people.

In January, the entire exhibition space was sold, never seen by Gifas. Exhibition Place, built in 1953, was renovated with an investment of 15 million euros. Meanwhile, the ESIS gives the kickoff of the construction giant. It starts with a shuttle trailers between Le Bourget and Chalons-en-Champagne. This town of Marne welcomes its periphery warehouses rented by SIAE order to repair, maintain and store the 350 cottages. Once conveyed to Le Bourget, they are reassembled on site. Mid-May, the assembly of the equivalent of 2 km cottage is almost completed.

They are willing delivered "naked" to exhibitors who have previously chosen from among several options: with or without terrace, with or without garden, sliding glass doors or not … On average, renting a cottage costs 30 000 euros all related services: water, Wi-Fi, electricity, telecommunications … "The interior design, decoration, catering or direct services are the responsibility of the exhibitor," said Louis Le Portz, Commissioner General of the show. The layout of the chalets, exhibition halls and pavilions begin five to six weeks before June 20 The designers are at work. Tons of carpet, furniture, carpets, curtains, decorative items, tableware, vases, … refrigerators are delivered.

The temperature rises because the clock is ticking. The risks multiply.In conjunction with the Departmental Directorate of Labour, the organizers ensure that companies and their subcontractors comply with French law. No question of allowing Chinese workers to sleep on site and work at night! Checks are also made with security companies and cleaning. Meanwhile, SIAE is recruiting a thousand people. Among them, 500 guards who work day and night to monitor the site, about 400 hosts and 200 cleaners. With staff hired for the occasion by the exhibitors, "there are more than 4000 people are ready to welcome visitors, provide catering services, and keep the premises clean," says Gilles Fournier.

Solar Impulse, guest of honor

Today, the first aircraft entered the air show and exhibition ground will arrive at Le Bourget.Not easy to "park" 150 planes and 20 helicopters but all find their place assigned in advance. This year, large birds are exposed, including two Boeing B 747-8, world premiere, 1 B 787 Dreamliner and the Airbus A 400 M military

With 1.6 T, the Solar Impulse Bertrand Piccard is a featherweight. The experimental solar device is the guest of honor at the fair. The suspense remains, since a series of incidents have forced on Saturday to make a U-turn, while in flight to Le Bourget, and return to its point of departure for Brussels. Its designer, Bertrand Piccard, however, has not given up being present.

The latest up and the ultimate "dirty rag" will take place Sunday. The festival starts tomorrow. A party whose Paris region expects 500 million economic impact.

SNCF would she yielded to the temptation of quotas? A belief in Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, SNCF controllers have actually quantified targets to be achieved. A confidential memo was sent in April to all employees of a commercial Train (ECT) in Paris to show them to achieve "four cases per day, with 41% of the amount of PV cashed directly for a minimum of 50 euros per day, the newspaper said.

A bonus system also encourages officers to be zealous by directly targeting travelers who can pay right away, writes the daily. On each transaction, the agents receive a percentage of the total amount, the newspaper said, noting that this system is much more advantageous for controllers if passengers pay on the spot.And that can pay big dividends: The Parisian-Today in France indicates that controllers can receive monthly bonus of up to 700 euros, depending on the zeal and grade. But often, these bonuses, paid from the thirtieth euros harvested, have little impact on total compensation for officers, the newspaper said.

"It will help you be muted

Better performance would also facilitate subsequent ascension of hierarchical controllers. "Everyone knows that if you're a good little soldier, you will have more incentive and it will help you be transferred to the TGV, where you will be better paid," says Sebastian Tarbes, Controller and activist South Rail at Paris- Today in France. Conversely, agents that do not quite verbalize would be punished, according to the newspaper, which cites the case of three officers who received a layoff of five days.They would not have achieved their objectives.

In an interview with Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, Patricia Lacoste, director of operations at the station, says "there is no political figure but a political fight against fraud." The ruling added that "the objectives are defined in terms of rate control and non-regularization. "The number of adjustments made by a skipper is measured and observed by the average of its capital," says Patricia Lacoste. It also states that "controllers have four objectives: safety, security and backup service."

"Contrary to company policy"

Contacted by lefigaro.fr, CFDT Railwaymen also stresses that "controllers are primarily responsible for sales agents Security and welcoming travelers.In addition, the organization said they had not been aware of the note and "if such guidelines were handed down to us, we would have intervened with management," said a spokesman. The union added that this type of instructions is "contrary to company policy which is not in a logic of repression but rather in a desire to preserve revenue. As for the Advancement of supervisors, the union says they are based on passing examinations, seniority and rating agents.

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The new prime minister, in power since last March, addresses the problem of unemployment, which remains the black spot in the Irish economy. Enda Kenny has presented on Wednesday a package of measures aimed at creating 100,000 jobs over four years.

The plan provides for reduced charges on low wages, a lower rate of VAT from 13.5% to 9% on some goods and services related to tourism to boost the sector and an increase in infrastructure spending for roads and schools. The government also wants to facilitate the upgrading of the unemployed through training programs.

Since 2008, hundreds of thousands of jobs have been destroyed under the impact of financial crisis, the bursting of the housing bubble, bank failures and austerity plans to repeat that the government had to place to contain soaring deficits and debt.In recent years, the unemployment rate has skyrocketed from 4% in 2007 to 14.7% today. The country is also facing an exodus of the population, especially young people, who try their luck in Canada or Australia. After the tutelage of the IMF and the EU, which granted in November a plan to help 85 billion euros in the country, the government faces a budget deficit of 32% of GDP, provides for a very narrow scope.

Rebound in exports

To finance this plan, Enda Kenny has decided to introduce a new tax – 0.6% – on pension funds, which should bring 470 million euros per year, totaling 1 instant credit report.9 billion euros . This has inevitably raised strong criticism in the profession. Growth side, the latest forecasts predict a return to the green this year, after three years of recession.The main institute in the situation, ESRI, reported Wednesday its forecast, anticipating a rise in GDP of 2% this year and 3% in 2012. A result that is nevertheless perspective, because this new dynamism "based entirely on exports," says ESRI report, given that domestic demand will fall further this year. Knowing that this rebound of external trade is linked to many multinationals operating in Ireland. Moreover, the GNP, which does not take into account their business will only grow 0.5% in 2011, according to ESRI.

Precisely for this reason that the Prime Minister does not intend to compromise with its European partners, who demand a higher rate, very attractive, the corporate tax (currently 12.5%) in exchange for a relaxation of the rescue plan negotiated by his predecessor, Brian Cowen."The Irish have made some overtures in that domain," says one good source, however, the French Ministry of Economy. Negotiations could therefore release in the coming weeks.

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It was the next level to reach for gold. The 1500 dollars, a level ever recorded for the yellow metal, have been hit on Wednesday in Asian trading. At the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong specifically, an ounce of gold reached 1,500.70 dollars in the afternoon. This performance was predictable when reached 1,499.32 dollars an ounce the previous day in London. The pace of growth is dazzling but in less than a month, gold has made close to $ 53. March 24, the yellow metal was trading at 1447.82 dollars yet.

This acceleration reflects a broad movement of deferral of investors in risky assets to what they see as the ultimate safe haven. Gold is indeed a physical asset with intrinsic value is backed by any issuer. He is considered an effective barrier to escape threats currently facing inflationary in most economies.China announced last Friday that inflation rose to 5.4% in March. In Europe, inflation rises to 2.4% while in the U.S., it reached 0.5%.

Alert on debt

The surge in gold can also be explained by rising concerns over the sovereign debt of countries in the euro area. Rumors of the restructuring of debt of Greece sow confusion in the markets. In parallel, operators wonder if Portugal, which will launch an austerity measures, will overcome its difficulties. The degradation of the sovereign rating of Ireland only complicated the situation. Very worried investors finding more than in Finland, nationalists opposed to helping fragile countries, became the third force in the country.

More ominously, investors realize that even the world's largest economy is not immune.For the first time in its history, S & P has downgraded the debt of the United States. Monday, the day the ad crashing, gold has gained almost 10 dollars to 1496.50 dollars. The purchases were supported by a bout of dollar weakness which makes it even more attractive purchases of commodities, including gold.

For the rest, the next goal is the threshold of $ 1600. According to experts from research firm specializing in the GFMS gold, it will be reached and even exceeded by the end of the year.

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Wall Street ends week in positive territory. At the close on Friday, the Dow Jones advance of 0.46% to 12,373.72 points. The S & P 500 is 0.5% to 1332.41 points. The Nasdaq composite index was him, appreciated by 0.31% to 2789.60 points.

For the week, the Dow gained 1.3%, the S & P 1.4% and Nasdaq 1.7%.

The job restarts

Yesterday, the markets showed very cautious before the release of the monthly report on employment. They discover a pleasant surprise today: the recruitment remained high and accelerated in the U.S. in March, allowing the unemployment rate to decline for the fourth consecutive month. This fell to 8.8%, its lowest level since March 2009 (8.6%). The market was expecting an average 8.9% stability.The U.S. created 216,000 non-farm jobs last month when observers were waiting an average of 190,000 new posts after 194,000 (revised) in February. Economists point out that new posts are developing in many sectors of the U.S. economy, which suggests a general recovery.

The good news on the jobs front this week have followed. On Wednesday, the firm ADP unveiled the net creation of 201,000 jobs in the U.S. last month. Thursday, the markets learned that the weekly claims for unemployment benefits were lower spring to 400,000 for six of the last eight weeks.

"Investors are expecting good numbers of jobs after the firm ADP's report on Wednesday, and they were even better than the optimistic expectations," said Michael James, of Wedbush Morgan Securities."This tells us that the economy continued to grow in March, and perhaps a modestly faster pace than what we expected," commented Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Advisors.

Construction spending receding

Other statistics were also at the appointment on Friday. Worse than employment, they were completely overshadowed:

– The growth of manufacturing activity slowed slightly in March but less than expected, according to the index of industrial purchasing managers released Friday. This index, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), stood at 61.2 in March after having touched a high of nearly seven years to 61 faxless payday advance.4 in February. Analysts on average expected an index to 61.0.

– Construction spending fell more than expected in February in the United States, posting a decline of 1.4% to an annual rate of 760.6 billion dollars, its lowest level since October 1999, underlining the renewed frailty in the housing sector. Economists on average had forecast a decline of 0.1% after falling 1.8% in January (revised from -0.7%)

As for currencies, the euro stood at 1.4224 dollars at the close, surging 0.49%.

War of the exchanges is relaunched

As for values, ICE (-3.06% to 119.76 dollars) and Nasdaq OMX (9.25% to 28.23 dollars) officially announced on Friday it had sent a joint offer for the acquisition of NYSE- Euronext (12.62% to 39.61 dollars) for $ 42.50 per share, paid in cash and stock, giving a total of about $ 11.3 billion (7.98 billion euros).This proposition therefore shows a premium of 19% over the offer from Deutsche Boerse.

Logitech (-18.81% to 14.72 dollars) unscrews. Yesterday, the technology group warned on its revenue and operating profit 2011.

Berkshire Hathaway (+0.04% to 83.66 dollars) should again be observed after the resignation of David Sokol, the most likely successor to Warren Buffett.

Office Depot (-9.07% to 4.21 dollars) will revise downward its results for fiscal 2010, due to a reduced tax credit of 80 million.

BP (3.44% to U.S. $ 45.66) enjoys a recommendation by JPMorgan.The broker believes that the title is "seriously downgraded," and reiterated his recommendation to "overweight" value.

Boeing (+0.07% to 73.98 dollars) on Friday confirmed an order for 15 737 aircraft made by compage Turkish Airlines for more than $ 1.2 billion based on list price. The aircraft manufacturer said that this order includes delivery of 10 737-800 and five 737-900ER.

Ford (1.68% to 15.16 dollars) overtook General Motors (4.45% to 32.41 U.S. dollars) in the U.S. car market with sales growth of 19.2% yoy month last 9.6% cons for GM. Chrysler saw its sales climb 31%.