International News

The Board of Directors of Dexia again go on Wednesday night to approve the one hand, the nationalization of its Belgian subsidiary, and secondly, to approve the terms of the transfer to France of its business loans to local authorities . Other operations will follow shortly, including the sale of Turkish subsidiary Denizbank that interested, too, Qatar, already the official buyer of private banking BIL.

Regarding the French part, the financial terms of the transaction is blocked. The company refinancing of loans to local authorities, Dexia Municipal Agency (Dexma), 65% will be taken by the CDC, 30% by Dexia and 5% by La Banque Postale (LBP).

Six weeks after the start of negotiations, all is not settled. It remains to define a framework for partnership in the business side.Now, the production of loans to communities will take place through a new bank, majority owned by LBP associated with the CDC. At the request of Philippe Wahl, chief executive of the subsidiary of La Poste, Dexia is not associated to thoroughly immunize the future against the troubles of the past. A real humiliation for the group and a cause for concern. "Uncertainties remain about the new role of Dexia Credit Local and a possible transfer of activities from DCL (the new location)," the CFDT warned Tuesday, recalling that the former Crédit local de France employs 1340 employees.The unions have asked to meet Dexia Baroin, the Minister of Finance.

Risk of breakdown of funding

Several hundred people being responsible for monitoring the loans and Dexma residual portfolio management, the debate is about the teams likely to be transferred to the new bank. "La Banque Postale does ensure that some of the activities undertaken by DCL, eg excluding short-term funding, social housing or health," warns one close to Dexia. Already some experts warn against the fact that local authorities will find themselves running out of funds. While production of Dexia – 3 billion euros this year – was already insufficient, the new bank plans to ramp up gradually. "It's open. If it is possible to produce more profitable loans, we will do, "cautions one close to the negotiations.

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Until recently, searching for health insurance quotes was a rare occurrence, not only in the online world of private coverage providers but also among their brick-and-mortar counterparts.

While a lack of Greece is closer every day, the question of the nationalization of banks is back on the front of the stage due to the exposure of French banks to Greece. In exchange, banking stocks are under pressure. Since the beginning of the year, Societe Generale, in fact, over 60% of its stock value and displays a low for 20 years, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, a little less than half.

A situation that the political leaders finally responded. "A nationalization of French banks is totally premature and beside the point," said this morning the Minister of Industry, Eric Besson, on RMC / BFM TV. The latter said that the banks have "very well" stress tests Europe last summer.

If right, then we answer in the negative, this is not the case on the side of the Socialist Party.Thus, to François Hollande, the Socialist candidate for the primary, "If it happened that there is a lack of Greece and the banks are brought to realize losses, there would be an appeal to the State, as in the subprime crisis. The state should not lend to banks, but must take a stake in their capital, "he told the Journal du Dimanche.

"The banks have lied to us in 2008"

For their part, EU officials remain confident in the strength of French banks. The President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, has confirmed that central banks were ready to provide liquidity to banks should they need it cash advance loan. "Whatever the scenario Greek and therefore regardless of the provisions to go, French banks have the means to cope," said Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France.

What some experts do not agree. "Banks have lied in 2008 and probably still hiding toxic chemicals in their balance sheets," said Marc Fiorentino, CEO of Monfinancier.com, the JDD. Societe Generale has just announced a new savings plan which relate primarily toxic assets, mainly U.S., made unwanted by the financial crisis and the explosion of the market "subprime" U.S..

For the expert, "The State must enter the capital of French banks up to 30%." Which he said would cost taxpayers between 50 and 100 billion euros. Same story on the side of Dessertine Philippe, Director of the Institute of High Finance. "The state is the only one who can help banks recapitalize," he says.The question is how the state will fund this operation and especially if nationalization does not require that other European countries do the same.

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The Paris Bourse continued its technical rebound, after a session that saw the CAC 40 jumped more than 3.5% beyond 3000 points. The benchmark index of the Paris Stock Exchange began the day on a stable note, down from 0.08% to 3070.58 points. But at mid-session, the CAC in advance of 1% which allows the index in Paris to spend the 3100 points. On other European exchanges, the movement is the same. London lost 0.08% at the opening before turning positive again (0.90%), while Frankfurt climbed 1.22%. As in Asia this morning, traders expect the set of indicators of days before taking a position. Unlike previous days, the agenda will be very busy in the U.S. and Europe.

In the euro area, the eyes will be on the ECB. Earlier this afternoon, President Jean-Claude Trichet, will make an announcement on rates. Unsurprisingly, they should remain at current levels, at 1.5%.But markets are waiting above him to book his views on the problems of sovereign debt. For now, it's time for calm on that front. Yesterday, the German Constitutional Court was reassurance by confirming plans for aid in the euro area. In France, the deputies approved the second bailout of Greece arrested on July 21. They are the first to start this procedure. The Italian Senate last night gave a green light to the first austerity plan of over 52 billion euros from the Berlusconi government, while Spain adopted its fiscal rule of thumb, as desired by Paris and Berlin.

The U.S. employment under the microscope

United States, several indicators of the health of the economy will fall during the session. Among them, the trade balance, weekly jobless claims and oil stocks.The consumer credit will be available after market in Europe.

Two discourses are also highly expected on Thursday, those of Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama. The Fed chief will speak at around 19 am, French time, the Economic Club of Minnesota. Investors await details about how the Fed intends to support the economy. This intervention will follow the publication yesterday of its Beige Book, which again reported a moderate growth. For his part, Bush will speak on Congress to 1 am, French time, on employment and growth. It should detail a plan for employment that would reach $ 300 billion, raised yesterday by the U.S. media.

In France, growth in employment has slowed

In France, INSEE announced that the dealer paid employment decelerated in the second quarter.Principally market sectors have created a total of 33,300 jobs over the period April to June, from 78,300 in the first three months of the year, an increase of 0.2% against 0.5% the previous quarter.

The trade deficit widened further in July, reaching 6.46 billion euros in seasonally adjusted data, weighed down by a rebound in imports, Customs officials said Thursday.

Moreover, according to the OECD, economic growth in developed countries could slow sharply, see stalling in the second half and central banks must be prepared to ease monetary policy by lowering interest rates or intervening on markets.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that growth in the G7 should not exceed 1.6% annualized in the third quarter and is expected to fall to 0.2% over the last three months of year. In France, activity is expected to increase only 0.9% and 0.4% annualized, against 1.8% and 1.9% previously expected.

On the currency side, the euro fell again in the late morning at 1.4079 dollar.Oil, he, rising as a result of the prolonged interruption of production in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical storm: a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 41 cents to 89 online payday loan lenders.75 dollars a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery takes 18 cents to 115.98 dollars in morning trading.

Values ​​to follow on Thursday

• Banking

Stress tests imposed on European banks have made "transparency and clarity" on the strength of their balance sheets, said Wednesday night a Treasury official in the United States.

Banks react well. Among the largest increases are CAC, Societe Generale (2.01% to 19.77 euros), BNP Paribas (1.94% to 32.25 euros), Credit Agricole (0.97 to 5%, 80 euros), Axa (0.80% to 10.10 euros) and Natixis (0.55% to 2.55 euros).

• Areva (-0.20% to 20.74 euros)

French nuclear group Areva said Thursday was ready to process the spent fuel still present on the site of Fukushima and propose to the Japanese government and the company Tepco lasting solutions to manage the post accident.

• EADS (-0.85% to 21.69 euros)

The group is ready to dip deep into a war chest of $ 16 billion (11.3 billion euros) to finance its expansion in the U.S. and is in preliminary discussions with several potential targets, said Wednesday its chief executive for North America.In addition, the European missile manufacturer MBDA, in part by EADS, would be forced to reduce its workforce by 400 jobs by 2015, according to La Tribune.

Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, is also considering a third increase its production capacity in one of its scenarios for 2018 to meet demand, the success of the A320 Neo scarce slots delivery before 2020, The Tribune reported Thursday.

• TF1 (0.87% to 10.43 euros) and EuropaCorp (stable at 3.29 euros)

The two groups announced Wednesday the signing of a Framework Agreement for development to produce the series in English for television.

• Ipsos: -1.36% to 27.13 euros

The group has launched a capital increase in cash of approximately 200 million euros to finance the purchase of Synovate.

• GDF Suez: -0.22% to 20.44 euros

The group will transfer to the Italian ENI participation of 10.4% in gas fields in the North Sea to pay off debt, reported Thursday Les Echos.

• Technip: 2.06% to 67.25 euros

In consortium with National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC), the group won a contract worth about $ 500 million for engineering, procurement and construction of the project Satah Full Field Development, a field located 200 km northwest of Abu Dhabi (UAE).

• Sanofi: 0.54% to 50.19 euros

Genzyme, the biotechnology laboratory of the U.S. bought by the French group, was unable to deliver its drug Fabrazyme in August, although it promised to doctors and patients to meet this deadline. U.S. regulators have made public Wednesday letters from Genzyme dated August 26 and 25 where the laboratory apologizes to its customers and for people with Fabry disease, a rare genetic disease, for "any confusion and disturbance "caused by the delay.

• France Telecom: 0.37% to 12.19 euros, Vivendi: -1.06% to 15.89 euros

The new tax passed by the government as part of the new austerity plan should give priority, penalize these two groups, according to Les Echos. France Telecom should be paid to these measures between 300 and 500 million.Vivendi would see him, his taxes increased from 250 to 400 million.

Next recommendation goes to Credit Suisse under-performance against neutral Ipsen (-0.41% to 22.85 euros). Societe Generale goes with the purchase of Biomerieux (2.09% to 71.40 euros).

Earlier this week optimistic the New York Stock Exchange. On Monday in early trade, the Dow Jones gained 1.84% to 11,016.24 points while the Nasdaq index jumped 2.15% to 2392.20 points. This return comes in the green after a further sharp fall on Wall Street last Friday. Oil has also opened up, earning $ 1.92 after opening at 84.10 dollars a barrel.

No major statistical date to worry about Wall Street, while European markets are more focused since Monday morning. As for U.S. data, only the index of manufacturing activity in the Chicago Fed was on the agenda. Stood at -0.06 in July, against -0.38 in June. "The index shows no tendency to a looming recession, observes Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natixis AM.However, other surveys conducted in August are troubling. "

But it will wait until Tuesday to learn more, with the publication of sales figures for new homes, from 16 hours. Wednesday, the agenda will grow a bit, with durable goods orders for July and the weekly inventory of crude oil to the United States.Thursday, things become more serious with the weekly jobless claims, always eagerly awaited by investors on the lookout for any sign of weakness, or, conversely, improvement in U.S. growth.

Threats to U.S. growth

But the appointment will most certainly expected the intervention, Friday, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), some investors are hoping a third easing able to restart the engine stopped the world's largest economy.This day will be both detailed, the second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter, and the index of consumer confidence for August.

Markets, even if they are experiencing very high volatility, and may still show, at the same time, some caution, pending the decision of the Fed on Friday. Especially as the threats to the outlook for U.S. growth accumulates. After Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase lowered its estimates, in turn, growth in the U.S. economy. The Bank of New York discusses risk "clearly raised" a recession, while growth prospects for the third quarter are for their slightly smaller than before pay day loans.The U.S. GDP growth for the fourth calendar quarter is now expected at a rate of 1%, against 2.5% previously.

Vice President Joe Biden, on an official visit to China, but probably a little appeased the spirits, reaffirming this weekend at the first creditors of the country they could rely on the strength of the U.S. Treasury.

Values ​​to follow

The uncertainty is compounded room at the international level, by the events in Libya. The fall of Colonel Qaddafi, found, became clearer Monday morning, prompting oil companies to return to the values ​​of the colors. However, perhaps more in Europe than the United States. Although they are not active in Libya, Chevron (1.79% to 94.95 dollars) and ExxonMobil (1.66% to 70.96 dollars) respond positively to the opening, rising oil prices in New York.

On the corporate side, the internet telephony group Skype also announced Sunday an agreement to acquire Me Group, a provider of mobile messaging services to targeted groups. Registered in Luxembourg, the company Skype was founded in 2003 and became the world leader in Internet telephony. She is currently being acquired by Microsoft U.S. computer group (0.89% to 24.20 dollars).

Apple (1.22% to 360.58 dollars) takes advantage of the rumors about the implementation of its pre-production soon iPad 3 October.The Wall Street Journal says in effect this morning as the group prepares its suppliers with the necessary logistics, to produce 1.5 million units in the fourth quarter.

In addition, Dollar Thrifty Group Antomotive asked Hertz rental companies (1.03% to 9.81 dollars) and Avis Budget (2.50% to 11.92 dollars) in early October to submit their final proposals on reconciliation activities.

Verizon (1.15% to 35.11 dollars) on his side ended a social movement and Hewlett-Packard takes up 6.34% to 25.12 dollars after losing 20% ​​of its stock value at the end of last week. He took advantage of presenting a new model of high-end PC, after announcing Thursday the sale of its computer manufacturing.

In the wake of the Asian stock markets, down sharply this morning despite a slight improvement at the end, the financial center of Paris has long been reluctant to choose how to behave on Tuesday … In response to fears about economic recovery and the financial situation of countries The Paris index has been a roller coaster since the opening, from an initial technical rebound (2%), a new panic attacks (-3.08%) in the morning and a recovery in midday (0.82% to 3150.70 points). The Paris index is even pressed for less than a minute to below 3000 points, a threshold that had not crossed since July 13, 2009. Finally, the Cac 40 shows a gain of 1.63% to 3176.19 points, ending at eleven consecutive sessions of declines.

Volumes were again extremely high (nearly 7 billion euros), all displaying European stock exchanges by mid-day trading levels higher than their usual daily average.

The recovery technique recorded by Paris is divided into Europe: London won 1.89%, 2.80% Brussels, Amsterdam, 1.30%, Milan (0.52%) 0.60% and Brussels. Conversely, the Dax in Frankfurt (-0.10%) and Madrid (-0.04%) remained in the red

Pic of volatility

This new session, which was a bit of all the dangers Monday after a black market, was held in extreme nervousness. With a drop of 18% of the index in Paris in eleven sessions, the Cac 40 was defeated Monday again his record consecutive bearish sessions.In addition, the volatility (the highest for two and a half years as the VIX (16.7%), shows that investors are not convinced by measures taken in Europe and the United States for fiscal consolidation and boost growth.

Even the 2 billion euros pledged by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Monday to buy back bonds in Italy and Spain, have yielded only very temporarily a little breath on the markets. According to a consensus of managers interviewed by Reuters, the institution should indeed buy at least 100 billion of sovereign debt in Spain and Italy to strengthen the euro area and reduce the pressure on the markets.However, the relaxation on the 10-year rates of the two countries is continuing this morning, those of Spain from below 5%, while those in Italy were approaching that threshold.

Moreover, the lack of effect on the markets of the intervention of U.S. President Barack Obama shows that political speech has no impact on investors, beyond the break-off. This has not prevented the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, to find that governments and central banks, have "largely on the margin" to address the crisis.European side, the statements are also increasing, Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, on Tuesday called on governments to "do their job" and put in place as soon as possible bailout of Greece, adopted on 21 July.

Policy responses are not sufficient to calm the

Is it possible? Hard to say, as investor psychology seems to look for a disability policy to find new tools to address the current crisis. For two weeks, no action relieves durablementles markets and break the vicious circle in which is immersed the Paris index.From this point of view, no new ones are expected at the meeting on the macroeconomic front.

The eyes are still turned to the United States, where the Monetary Policy Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a highly anticipated meeting this afternoon to decide on measures against the risk of a further slowdown in growth. The conclusions of this meeting, however, should not be made public until 20:15, Paris time, and will therefore not affect the European markets.

In this dark period, is good news also came on the morning of the Budget Ministry, which reported just before a stock market stabilization French public deficit at the end of June, to 61.3 billion euros.

Moreover, according to figures released this afternoon by INSEE, the price of oil in dollars recovered in July (+2.3%) after declining by 1% in JuneThe price of imported industrial raw materials has, too, bounced: 1.9% in July, against 0.2% a month earlier. Same trend for raw food (+1.0% after -0.8%).

For its part, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also lowered its demand forecasts for 2011. In its monthly report published on Tuesday, the organization expects a demand for crude to 88.14 million barrels per day (bpd), against 88.18 million bpd set before.

The barrel still under pressure

The report is closely watched, the price of oil is very strong pressure for 15 days under the effect of the downward revision of demand forecasts. A decline which continued Tuesday, but less than the opening.In electronic trading in Asia, the "light sweet crude" for dropped below 80 dollars (78.92 dollars in mid-day) while the barrel of Brent crude down $ 100 for the floor, then back to 101.04 dollars.

As for the exchange, finally, the single European currency regained color against the greenback until the Fed meeting tonight, the euro climbed to 1.4234 dollars at 8 o'clock, against 1.4179 late Monday. Note that the face of these uncertainties, gold enjoys full status as a safe haven, record after record signing. The ounce finished on a further rise Tuesday in Hong Kong dollars to 1753.50, after hitting a new record for the session at 1772.09 dollars.

Side analysts, speeches remain cautious, noting that "the large volumes show that we are not in a sluggish market, typical of the holiday, but in a situation of significant liquidations of positions, as and when traders' confidence evaporates, "according to Jonathan Sudaria Capital Spreads.

The side of values ​​to follow:

Financials bounce (BNP Paribas takes 0.06% to 39.33 euros, Societe Generale advance of 3.54% to 26.01 euros and Credit Agricole gleans 1.94% to 6.88 euros). Natixis (+2% to 2.95 euros) goes back more vigorously the slope, as Axa (2.23 to 11.23 euros).Faced with the sharp fall in equity markets, the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) did not consider it unnecessary at this stage to ban short selling in these securities, said Monday a spokesman for the regulator stock.

Alcatel-Lucent (9.22% to 2.42) shows the largest increase in the ACC after losing 31.5% over the past two weeks.

GDF Suez (1.01% to 20.02 euros). the group has reached an agreement with the Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC. Beijing will take a pole in its exploration and production investments and participate in the French group in Asia Pacific, told Reuters on Monday sources familiar with the matter.

Archos (- 5.50% to 6.87 euros). The specialist tablets unveiled Monday a net profit after market semi-annual 1.7 million euros against a loss a year earlier.The group also confirmed its objective of a gross margin above 20% for the full year.

Euro Disney (12.68% to 5.60 euros) reported, shortly before the opening of the Exchange, an increase of 7% of its quarterly revenue (T3), to 344 million euros and announced an increase in spending per visitor.

After rebounding to 1.66% at the beginning and spent all morning in the green, the Cac 40 was pressed into the red in mid-session, before sinking further into negative territory at the opening of Wall Street. Shortly after the speech by Jean-Claude Trichet, as markets accentuated their losses, the distribution of all European indices, including the benchmark index of the Paris Stock Exchange, operated by NYSE Euronext, has been unavailable for almost a hours on Thursday due to a technical problem. The CAC 40 was finally ended on a plummeting 3.90% to 3320.35 points, its lowest level since July 28, 2009. After losing 134.59 points on the session, he signed the ninth session of consecutive decline, a new series in September 2002 and the end of the internet bubble burst. Since July 1, the benchmark index in Paris dropped nearly 17%.

The panic was the same on all stock exchanges in Europe: the FTSE-100 from the London Stock Exchange closed on a fall of 3.43% to 5393.14 points, its worst since the two September. The Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange ended down 3.40% to 6414.76 points. The Madrid Stock Exchange drops 3.89%, below 9000 points.

The diffusion index star of the Milan Stock Exchange, the FTSE Eb, it is suspended since 3:05 p.m. GMT when he fell more than 3%, announced the financial manager without explanation.

In the process, the Dow Jones on Wall Street was down 2.96% at 11,545 points.

Lower cost of debt Italian and Spanish

Financial markets were not convinced by the meeting of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank. This has not surprisingly left its rate unchanged at 1.50%.Above all, the ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet said the share repurchase program of continued monetary institution, but would concern "that the Irish and Portuguese bonds" and not "those of other nationalities" .

After the award in Madrid some 3.3 billion of bonds with three and four years, the yield of the loan in ten years Spanish retreated 6.09% to around 11 hours (Paris time) against 6.35 % late Wednesday. The Spanish Treasury also announced it was canceling its bond issue, scheduled for Aug. 18. The rate of return of Italian ten-year paper fell, meanwhile, up 5.97% before stabilizing at around 6% against 6.10% the previous day.

On the currency markets, the euro falling 1.26% against the dollar at 1.4167 dollar. Oil is also displayed down 1.47% in New York at 90.58 dollars.For its part, the ounce of gold hit a new addition Thursday historical 1677.90 dollars on fears the global economy and becoming bogged down again in the wake of the conference of ECB President Jean -Claude Trichet.

On the corporate side, both companies have published this morning, Veolia Environnement and Axa.

Veolia Environnement: -9.44% to 12.95 euros – the largest drop Cac

Veolia Environnement, which warned last Friday that it would not achieve its goals for this year, released on Thursday a net loss of 67.2 million euros in the first half, weighed down by exceptional asset write-downs 800 million euros.The world leader in environmental services will focus its activities "in less than 40 countries in 2013 against 77 today."

Axa: + 3.08% to 12.40 euros – the largest increase Cac 40

However, Axa reported first half net profit more than quadrupled to 3.99 billion euros (324%), driven by gains on sale and very little affected by provisions related to the support plan to Greece.

Bonduelle: -2.06% to 64.15 euros

Bonduelle has increased from 10.7% in sales from 2010 to 2011. Sales of specialist canned vegetables and frozen emerge to 1726 million.The group confirmed its annual targets.

Vinci: -1.60% to 36.92 euros

Vinci said Wednesday QDVC, its joint venture with Qatari fund, won a contract for 374 million euros for a metro project for a new town being built in Qatar.

Vilmorin: + 5.11% to 76.99 euros

Vilmorin has confirmed its margin target of 2010-2011 by announcing an increase of 12.1% of its turnover for the year, thanks to the vegetable business, along with the acquisition of assets and maize seed and sorghum Brasmilho of Brazilian society.

Hermes: -0.57% to 234 euros

Hermès responded Wednesday to the Association of Defence of Minority Shareholders (Adam), who asked why the luxury group spent so much money to buy back its own shares."Share repurchases are intended to cover the programs free shares to employees," said a spokeswoman for Hermes.

Cegedim: -2.59% to 32 euros

Cegedim dropped its goal of increasing revenue for 2011 but remains confident in its ability to generate an EBIT close in absolute value, that of 2010. The group also announced Wednesday for the second quarter of 2011, a consolidated turnover of 247.1 million euros (+1.6% as reported and 0.1% organic).

Natixis (-0.10% to 2.923 euros) and Dexia will publish its second quarter results after market close.

Republicans and Democrats tear each other apart in Washington for several weeks to avoid economic and financial catastrophe. The draft plan expected Sunday night was supposed to at least prevent markets open Monday morning in Asia, the dollar collapses. Since mid-May, when the debt ceiling up to 14,300 Treasury billion was reached, investors have been remarkably patient. But tired of political impasse, however, they could start selling U.S. Treasury securities and cause a sudden rise in bond yields.

Beyond the immediate threat looming two major systemic risks. Chronologically, the first is that of a selective defect of the Treasury. The latter says that beyond the August 2, it will no longer have sufficient liquidity to pay all its bills.The only way to continue to pay both current expenses such as salaries of civil servants, pensions of the elderly, as well as interest and principal on its debt, is to issue new bonds. $ 87 billion of federal government bonds maturing on August 4. It can only do that by issuing new shares. For this, it must have the authority of Congress as the upper limit of 14,300 billion debt would be exceeded.

Risk of asphyxiation

Without authority to do so, the treasure is August 3 in a position to "selective default" is to say, forced to choose which to honor its debts. Even putting hundreds of thousands of civil servants laid off to focus on pensioners and holders of government bonds, the Treasury can hardly make time.Uncle Sam is, in fact, take roughly 42% of what it spends. If he can not borrow, it quickly asphyxiated. This asphyxiation born a global crisis of confidence, the stock market crashes and bond, a collapse in domestic demand in the U.S. and global recession. The enormity of the threat calls for a last-minute compromise, reducing public spending, paving the way for a poll under the ceiling of the debt.

The second danger is less serious, but the probability is much higher: it is the degradation of the AAA rating given to the debt of the United States. American paper would no longer be the instrument chosen by the risk-free banks and investors around the world to park their cash. The returns required by investors to hold bonds tarnished increase.An increase of one percent of these returns would result in $ 150 billion more than annual burden of debt for the Treasury.

The three major agencies have warned the White House and Congress: America does not deserve to keep the rating the best expense only if it engages in a credible plan to reduce the medium to long term its debt. It is therefore possible that next month, noting that the compromise that made it possible to raise the debt ceiling is accompanied only by inadequate measures of savings, one or more agencies degrade America.

European banks may need to raise 80 billion euros, to reassure the markets. A report by JPMorgan Cazenove, led by analyst Kian Abouhossein, estimates that if the level of reserve requirements is strictly adhered to 7%, nearly two banks will raise new money. French banks Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole would need twenty billion euros, against 25 billion for UK institutions and 14 billion euros for German lenders, including Deutsche Bank. The Italian UniCredit, Credit Suisse and Santander are also cited in the report by JPMorgan Cazenove.

This study revealed the results of stress tests published last Friday by the EBA.These tests, built on capital requirements as 5%, entered into a need to refinance 2.5 billion euros for eight of the 90 banks assessed, including any French. But investors believe these tests inadequate, particularly criticizing for not sufficiently taken into account the default risk in Greece. JPMorgan Cazenove said the criticism in his study, indicating that these stress tests have "limited value".

The evolution of banking stocks on European stock markets will be very observed on Monday morning to find Investors Arbitration between the reassuring results of stress tests and numerical study of JPMorgan. In March, ratings agency Standard & Poor's had conducted its own tests of resistance.His conclusion: European banks would need 250 billion euros of additional capital.

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The difference is certainly on the thickness of the line but it still twists his neck to popular belief. An evaluation of the Ministry of Labour with the redeployment of unemployed Le Figaro has obtained, employment center gets better results that private placement (OPP) to which the accompaniment of hundreds of thousands of job seekers job was outsourced. In other words, the public would be more effective than the private sector to find new jobs for the unemployed.

This assessment focuses on two categories of job seekers who have benefited, in November 2009 and March 2010, a reinforced support: the unemployed far removed from the market (long-term, seniors …) and CTP-fired economic CRP (devices for one year guaranteeing a subsidy equivalent to 80% of the last gross wage). Just under 5000 people were interviewed.In both cases, the rate of return to work thirteen months after the start of the support is higher for employment center.

47% of retrenched in CTP-CRP followed by public service employment benefit and employment (employed or not), against 43% for those followed by a private placement (employment agency, company … reclassification). Less than one in three point still unemployed after thirteen months, against 38% for a PPO. The private sector, which offers support more regular and reinforced, in the end proves better than the public service on one point: the rate of CDI won, higher than 5 points to the result displayed by employment center.

More CDI

The difference is greater for the second cohort of unemployed: the unemployed far removed from the labor market.49% are employed and thirteen months after the start of their employment center for support, against 43% for those followed by a PPO. Unlike the retrenched, the CDI rate is even higher in the public service (44% against 39%). Worse, the number of unemployed, thirteen months after the start of the accompaniment, are higher in PPOs (45% against 41%).

These results revive the controversy over the use of OPP – the cost of an unemployed investment returns twice as expensive (2200 euros on average per year, against 1100 at employment center) – to relieve the crews of the public service of employment in case of downturn. The popular option is to use only an "outsourcing of specialty", on a more targeted, less numerous and where the added value of OPP is proven. Should, in this case, review their terms of payment by paying more in income.PPOs now affecting half of their performance in support of an unemployed, 25% when in use and 25% if there is still six months later. The idea is often put forward to move to a 35% share in the care and placement for 65% effective (against today 50/50). A useful discussion since the OPP always accompany nearly 150,000 job seekers.

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"Avada Kedavra!" From the Aramaic "adhadda kedhabhra" meaning "that the thing be destroyed", the magic world of Harry Potter describes perfectly how the saga has shelved the James Bond and Other War stars of a economic point of view. On the eve of the release of the eighth and final installment of the series in dark rooms ("Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"), the figures give the spin: in total, the first seven films have generated some 6 , $ 4 billion (4.4 billion euros) in revenue worldwide, according to the U.S. studios Warner Bros. By itself, the first film adaptation in 2001 was worth almost a billion dollars.

Most successful in the history of cinema, the adventures of the bespectacled wizard is also the most successful global publishing.Since the release of first installment, "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" in 1997, over 400 million books were sold, having been translated into 69 languages ​​and 200 territories.

Consequence of its popularity, the saga has been an all-out merchandising. In all, video games and other clothing, stuffed animals and candy bearing the image of the heroes of the series would yield more than a billion a year, according to AFP. In June 2010, a theme park has even opened its doors in the United States. Stamped "The Wizarding World of Harry Potter" ("The Wizarding World of Harry Potter"), the attraction has cost $ 200 million, and would experience a growing success since its opening.

20 million books sold in France

Well represented in the saga (including the Academy of Magic Beaubâtons), France has not escaped this wave.According Gallimard Jeunesse, which has an exclusive publishing contract, the figure of 20 million copies sold recently passed. In the dark rooms of the Hexagon, the adventures of Harry made a card, even if the number of entries went out over the decrescendo. The first movie ("Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone") has attracted some 9.4 million entries, against almost 6 million for the first part of the seventh installment.

Olivier Snanoudj, vice president of Warner Bros France, the decline in the number of entries "not surprising" since, over the episodes, movies, like the books have become "increasingly dark ". "As a young child, and by extension their parents or grandparents, came to the movies less," said he. This does not prevent targeting "a minimum" the bar of the six million tickets for the final film in the series."All fans want to see the end" of the adventures of young wizard, he bet.

Gallimard reissued the series in October

Display, advertisements in the press, promotion on the Internet … Nothing in any case been left to chance to boost inflows. Thus, the film was scheduled at the beginning of the school holidays and in the wake of the film festival, a promotional weapon of choice. Highlight of the campaign, a preview was held by Warner Bros. on Tuesday evening at the Palais Omnisports de Paris Bercy. "We installed the largest 3D screen in the world with six projectors, for an audience of 8000 people," recites the vice president of the distributor.

Via this strategy, the distributor looks forward "to revive the cash machine in particular in view of Christmas sales, or special boxes will probably days," slips a specialist.Hand books, Gallimard Jeunesse has relatively good performance of the game first, "the release of the latest installment in the film is likely to boost the sale of books, as has always been the case in the past," said Frédérique haunch, responsible for the communication of the publisher. And to project, announcing a repeat of the saga, in Volume by volume, from the month of October. With the menu, "new coverage to be carried out by the famous English designer Jonathan Gray," she says. Thus, Gallimard Jeunesse renewed the assault of a young audience, "from 8 to 10 years, as we did 15 years ago." On the commercial side, Harry Potter has not said its last word.

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