Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize in Economics 2008, boasted over the weekend in its notebook line "difference" of France in terms of economic and social choices. D es choice of technology and productivity, but also "retirement and leisure." If the American leases a different model from the United States, he fails to mention that this model does not allow the Hexagon to achieve growth levels comparable to those seen overseas. Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that 2010 had resulted in an increase in GDP of 2.9%. France, it should hardly exceed 1.5%. The recession is still beautiful is well behind us.
For this year – as well as the following – that the debate is more open.The government target of 2% growth in 2011 is it achievable? It is certainly a little higher than forecasts of international institutions in France. "It will be difficult but not impossible," says Marc Touati, economist at financial Assya Company.
"A small but growing stronger '
For one side, the business climate in industry has greatly improved earlier this year, which may suggest a revival of production and investment by businesses. On the other, consumer confidence has deteriorated.What makes it even more uncertain the resilience of consumer spending – which was strongly supported by the scrapping late 2010 and could now face the consequences quick cash.
Economists from Credit Agricole, they suggest that little by little, the features of the stimulus plan "that allowed the French economy out of recession weaken and give way to a lower growth certainly, but also stronger."The Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, she did not budge, which again, Friday in Davos, reiterated that growth would reach 2% this year though.
As for the idea of having to lower the forecast of 2.5% for 2012 – a hypothesis for the month of April, after the regional, by anonymous sources quoted in Le Monde Bercy – it is scanned with a hand side of the circle by Christine Lagarde, who considers "stupid" to mention now a revision of growth for next year. "It's much too early!"
"Some have an interest in running this kind of rumor," an irritated laying of the Ministry of Economy, which points its neighbors in the Budget Ministry.The latter would prepare the minds: a lower growth than expected, additional savings would be expected to keep the deficit target – it should rise from 6% of GDP at end 2011 to 4.6% in late 2012.
The minister himself, Baroin, does not a mystery: he warned earlier this year that it might be necessary to go "beyond the 3 billion reduction in tax loopholes" contained for the time next year.
