Dubai failed to stem the crisis
It is expected that Monday morning, important announcements of Government of Dubai, after the panic that swept over the markets last week following the announcement by Dubai World to a deferment of six months minimum payment of a debt of 3.5 billion. The reaction of local exchanges, after four days of closure because of the Eid holiday, was also highly anticipated.
It seems that support the day by the Central Bank of UAE, which has decided to provide creditors with more cash, has not reassured investors. The Exchange has unscrewed from 8.31% in Abu Dhabi and Dubai lost 7.3%. "The security of the Central Bank is limited to banks to avoid a systemic effect.But this does not solve the crisis, "notes Pascal Devaux, economist at BNP Paribas.
Duba?otes authorities have not made this Monday in response to a specific exit strategy. The only communication came through the Ministry of Finance, who said that the emirate would not assume the liabilities of the conglomerate. "It is for creditors to assume their own responsibility in the decision to lend to businesses," said Abdulrahman Al Saleh, director general of the ministry on the television channel Dubai TV. "The creditors believe that Dubai World is part of the state, which is incorrect.The State owns the company, but since its creation, it is determined that the company is not guaranteed by the state, "he added.
Lack of transparency
By disconnecting and Dubai World, a huge conglomerate that has a dozen subsidiaries and displays 59 billion in debt, including 25 billion for real estate division Nakheel, the emirate is likely to worsen the climate of uncertainty and lack of investor confidence. Just as many experts criticized the lack of transparency and communication, particularly on economic issues in the emirate.
The target for Dubai is to prevent contagion to the entire economy of the region. "He actually tries to distinguish the business risk of sovereign risk," says economist of BNP Paribas.This to avoid that risk assessment has a negative impact not only on the sovereign risk of Dubai but also in its larger neighbor Abu Dhabi. For, while suggesting that the rescue medium term can only come from the oil revenues of big brother.
Besides this solution, Dubai has little alternative to overcome the crisis. Either the conglomerate renegotiate its debt with the risk of a higher price if the markets continue to fall. The other option is to sell off its property assets that have lost much value with the crisis. If this seems impossible at this time, Dubai will not be shy of a restructuring.
Finally, one thing is certain: by the agency Moody's, the impact of the crisis "could be disastrous" for the confidence of investors by pushing interest rates upward.What curb heat recovery of an economy still recovering and setting appropriations for the restart.
"In town, ruined speculators cross workers unemployed
