The time of easy financing of the debt it is soon gone to the United States and the United Kingdom? Large investment funds such as Pimco and BlackRock, fear that record levels of debt can cause a rise in interest rate markets. For states, this means a debt more expensive to finance. For investment funds, this translates into a loss of value of their bond portfolio. These have accordingly reduced their exposure to U.S. debt and the UK, according to them particularly vulnerable.
The California Pimco, the largest bond investor in the world which manages 199.5 billion dollars on this market, has reduced its shares of American and British debts to a level not seen since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, reports agency Bloomberg.The European BlackRock has in turn reduced its exposure to these securities at its lowest level in two years, the Financial Times.
Investment funds fear two things: that the interest rate, the lower back quickly and that the market can absorb the debt securities issued as required by the states … fueling the rise in yields . A concern that is primarily about the United States and the United Kingdom.
Decline in value of portfolio
"The question posed to the fund now is: when and how fast interest rates will they go?" Analysis Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo. A rise in interest rates next, helped by economic recovery, would mechanically increase the yields of bonds issued in the coming months.As a result, the securities purchased in the past by the fund with a lower yield, would see their market prices fall. This would melt the value of fund portfolios.
In this perspective, bond yields have rebounded. "Today, the yield on the U.S. ten years is around 3.8% against 3.2% last month and a half … and cons 2% a year ago," notes Bruno Cavalier. Same trend for UK Treasury bills. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the ten-year yields should rise by 4.01% today to 4.31% by end 2010.
Still, the natural demand for sovereign debt should continue, slowing the rise in rates. The new regulations are put in place will indeed require banks to offset the risk by increasing their liquidity cushion.They then turn to bonds. Therefore, "even if emissions of sovereign debt increased sharply, demand should rise dramatically," said Laurence Boone, chief economist at Barclays, before agreeing, referring to ads Pimco: "We are never at 'immune from turmoil in a market if investors decide to all move together … "
