International News

European consumers should avoid this year's gas war, which traditionally opposes Russia to Ukraine. However, last week, the European Union monitors to close another front – this time oil – which is taken to Moscow and its close neighbor, Belarus.

It is populated by the republic of 10 million inhabitants, formerly subservient to the Soviet government, which handles a significant part of Russian oil destined for Europe. Now, Moscow intends to Minsk taxing exports of black gold, which should account for this small country a net loss of about 1.8 billion euros. In tough negotiations are taking place in the Russian capital, with the fear still present, the Russian government abruptly interrupted deliveries of oil.

Flowing through the Druzhba pipeline, the oil supplies to refineries in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Lithuania. Further downstream, 15% of oil consumed in Germany goes through this famous pipe, a proportion which reaches 75 in Poland! "We remain very attentive to the changing situation, said Thursday the spokesperson of European Commissioner for Energy, Andries Piebalgs. Brussels has negotiated with Moscow the introduction of an early warning system, designed to prevent energy crises.

"Bringing the country in the right way"

As usual in energy, trade dispute that combines economic and political considerations. Moscow wants to change the preferential treatment that allows today to Belarus, as a former Soviet republic, to pay no duty on the oil it imports from Russia.

The unspoken goal of the Russian government is to "bring in the right way" Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is attempting a rapprochement with the EU. Oil, which constitutes 37% of Belarusian exports, is easy ammunition. Meanwhile, Moscow and Minsk – allies in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan – three negotiating the creation of a customs union, hardly compatible with the flirtation European Belarus. Between the Russian oil and Brussels, Alexander Lukashenko will probably choose.

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Despite the significant impact of successive delays made the program of the new jumbo Airbus A350, the chairman of its parent, Louis Welsh, said in the columns of the Financial Times that his group will not appeal markets.

The boss of aerospace group EADS has nevertheless conceded that such delays "have an impact on cash Airbus, which suggests the London daily that the group's treasury could melt rapidly due to lower deliveries of had expected next year, raising questions about the long-term funding of new programs.

"We have over 8 billion euros in net cash. When you're in that situation, you do not request funding for your shareholders, "said Louis Welsh. The cost of developing the A350 is generally estimated at over 10 billion euros.Louis Welsh also ensures that the financial difficulties of Dubai, one of the largest customer of Airbus, will have no impact on the European group.

EADS shares evolved to equilibrium at around 11.00 to 12.37 euros, or -0.08% over the closing price last Friday at the Paris Bourse.

It is expected that Monday morning, important announcements of Government of Dubai, after the panic that swept over the markets last week following the announcement by Dubai World to a deferment of six months minimum payment of a debt of 3.5 billion. The reaction of local exchanges, after four days of closure because of the Eid holiday, was also highly anticipated.

It seems that support the day by the Central Bank of UAE, which has decided to provide creditors with more cash, has not reassured investors. The Exchange has unscrewed from 8.31% in Abu Dhabi and Dubai lost 7.3%. "The security of the Central Bank is limited to banks to avoid a systemic effect.But this does not solve the crisis, "notes Pascal Devaux, economist at BNP Paribas.

Dubaïotes authorities have not made this Monday in response to a specific exit strategy. The only communication came through the Ministry of Finance, who said that the emirate would not assume the liabilities of the conglomerate. "It is for creditors to assume their own responsibility in the decision to lend to businesses," said Abdulrahman Al Saleh, director general of the ministry on the television channel Dubai TV. "The creditors believe that Dubai World is part of the state, which is incorrect.The State owns the company, but since its creation, it is determined that the company is not guaranteed by the state, "he added.

Lack of transparency

By disconnecting and Dubai World, a huge conglomerate that has a dozen subsidiaries and displays 59 billion in debt, including 25 billion for real estate division Nakheel, the emirate is likely to worsen the climate of uncertainty and lack of investor confidence. Just as many experts criticized the lack of transparency and communication, particularly on economic issues in the emirate.

The target for Dubai is to prevent contagion to the entire economy of the region. "He actually tries to distinguish the business risk of sovereign risk," says economist of BNP Paribas.This to avoid that risk assessment has a negative impact not only on the sovereign risk of Dubai but also in its larger neighbor Abu Dhabi. For, while suggesting that the rescue medium term can only come from the oil revenues of big brother.

Besides this solution, Dubai has little alternative to overcome the crisis. Either the conglomerate renegotiate its debt with the risk of a higher price if the markets continue to fall. The other option is to sell off its property assets that have lost much value with the crisis. If this seems impossible at this time, Dubai will not be shy of a restructuring.

Finally, one thing is certain: by the agency Moody's, the impact of the crisis "could be disastrous" for the confidence of investors by pushing interest rates upward.What curb heat recovery of an economy still recovering and setting appropriations for the restart.

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An agreement on part-time senior recently signed by the unions CGT, CFDT, CFTC and FOR with the management of France Telecom (Sud-PTT and CFE-CGC did not sign). This agreement covers employees who worked at least fifteen years with the company and due to retire within three years.

This device based on volunteerism should enable people to work part-time for three years before retirement for 80% of gross salary. With a reduction of greater wages, the employee can retire earlier, up to eighteen months if he agrees to be paid at 65% (not working so that eighteen months before the retirement).

"It's an event, a brick building that is being rebuilt, a dynamic" to move towards a new "social contract", said Director of Human Resources Group, Olivier Barberot at signature.The unions amounted to 14,000 the number of employees who could join the scheme.

"The group undertakes to compensate for 50% the time freed by employees in GST, which, on the basis of 6,000 beneficiaries of TPS, 1500 represents the minimum hiring full time Commission under the scheme between June 2010 and June 2013, "said the text agreed.

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