International News

Airlines in the world play the shows. While the carbon tax was introduced on 1 January by the European Union in respect of all airlines that fly over the European area, the latter will be forced to carry them out in spring 2013. Time for States to shout out loud that "their" companies will not pay. India, Russia, China … a total of 26 members, not least, on 36 of the Aviation Organisation (ICAO) are resisting. In the U.S., the House of Representatives voted late last year to ban text to American companies to pay.

Like China, reiterated yesterday that his refusal to comply with European legislation, most Member States of ICAO criticize legislation "regional" which will result in new financial burdens. The system of emissions trading scheme set up by the Union provides that companies normally open in the coming weeks "Account" with their national administration of civil aviation and implement a system to measure their CO2 emissions.

Doubly penalized

In March 2013, then they should pay the amount corresponding to 15% of 2012 emissions by the amount per tonne of CO2. And China has calculated that his companies would have to pay 97 million euros for 2012 and four times in 2020. In total, the measure would cost € 705 million to companies in the world, still under 2012.

Penalties set by the Commision are of two types: a fine of 100 euros per tonne of CO2 emissions and, even more dissuasive, the flight ban in the European Union. But, meanwhile, out states may also set up an arsenal of retaliation. It may include trade measures in respect of Airbus, the European aircraft manufacturer, whose best customers are called China Southern, China Eastern and Air China but also India Indigo Air Asia or Malaysia.

Leaders of European companies fear they will be doubly penalized. First, because they are inherently more vulnerable to European tax. On the other hand, because they also fear being victims of these countries slingers. "These states may ask us to pay a landing fee that would offset the amount that our competitors outside Europe have to pay when coming home," is concerned officer of a company of the Old Continent. The European Commissioner for Climate Connie Hedegaard judge it just increase the ticket prices a few dollars to offset it. An argument inaudible at times of crisis.

However, companies seem to rely on the slow pace of international decisions for a relaxation of regulations occurring before the first deadline for payment of this tax, in principle the first quarter of 2013.

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Financial markets remain grounded arms vis-à-vis Italy. The announcement of the imminent resignation of Silvio Berlusconi yesterday was greeted with great relief on all European markets. It allows to hope for the establishment of a government more able to put public finances in Italy.

Analysts saw in recent weeks that the Italian bond market suffered from a premium of distrust Berlusconi estimated at 100 basis points (1 percentage point) on the rates of government bonds to 10 years. Not surprisingly, the announcement of his impending departure should have been welcomed by a substantial amount of rates.

An oil close to $ 100

Oil markets have returned to their highest in the summer of last week. In New York, a barrel of light sweet crude for December delivery ended the week and to 93.32 dollars, pocketing 11.5% in five days, while in London, Brent crude gained 4% over the same period at 110.02 dollars. These levels were no longer observed since last August.

This surge is due to the euphoria that followed the agreement on a plan to end the crisis in Europe. As the equity markets, the announcements of European leaders were welcomed by a jump in current operators rejecting the idea of ​​"economic calamity," said John Kilduff, of Again Capital. In addition, China's second largest consumer of oil in the world, issued a manufacturing PMI at highest level in five months.U.S. GDP also rose by 2.5% yoy in the third quarter and increased consumer spending by American households has accelerated in September to 0.6%. Another factor is bullish: "There are investors who claim that the Americans withdraw from Iraq, it will add to the volatility in the Middle East. It was also the new regime in Libya during a test, "noted Rich Ilczyszyn, MF Global no faxing payday loans.

The higher prices could have been even stronger if there had been publishing a weekly report on bad stocks Wednesday. Surprised, analysts questioned the causes of such weekly increase, especially imports have continued to slow in recent weeks. Phil Flynn, analyst at PFG Best Research, put forward a hypothesis: "the oil accelerated their pace to arrive before the hurricane Rina.The metal was also supported by the ongoing tensions in the global supply. Thus, the American Freeport-McMoRan said Wednesday the "force majeure" for its Grasberg mine in Indonesia (site producing between 3% and 4% of world supply), paralyzed from mid-September by a violent strike.

Aluminium was supported by a decline in world stocks (5% in September, its lowest level since December). The course is finished in 2221 dollars per tonne (3.6% for the week). Tin is always paid by the interruption of exports from Indonesia (30% of world production of tin), decided in early October by domestic producers in order to trace the course. The stocks of this metal on the LME have since decreased by 21%. Classes end at 21,870 dollars (0.55%).

Many individuals prefer to keep their cash rather than warm place in the markets. The storm was the market could only reinforce this position. However, taking the trouble to dig a little, there are various investment avenues to explore. We offer three, through ETFs and funds.

Corporate bonds, small return for a limited risk

The first idea, for those who are tired of exposure to the debts of states is to turn to big companies a solid, popular with rating agencies. Compensation is greater than 3%. Above all, the defects are rare. These bonds have weathered the crisis well because in 2008, Markit index of large financial obligations out gained 1.85%. Obligations to expose themselves to quality, we recommend going through a tracker.The fund, management fees very low, continuously quoted on the Bourse de Paris, can invest confidently (code: FR0010814236).

The high yield, large compensation for significant risk

The junk bonds, as they are called the Anglo-Saxons have a bad reputation. Yet they can be very profitable in the long run. Indeed, the annual yield is greater than 9%. In addition, the risk is often exaggerated on these bonds. After degradation, Peugeot and Lafarge are after example in the category high efficiency. To invest in these securities, we recommend again to go through a tracker. The Lyxor on 30 bonds seems ideal. It provides immediate liquidity and management fees ridiculous, which is far from the case for other funds. ISIN code FR0010975771 is.

Shares with high dividends for the long term

It is hard to miss the action with a strong performance. On average, the CAC 40 shares of 5% relate. It is not uncommon for actions bring more than 6% as Total, Vivendi or property. Choose a fund comprising shares with good dividends ensures more consistent performance. Many funds have forged strong reputations. Indeed, in this case, talent managers can make a difference as it is to ensure that dividends are regular and, as far as possible, guaranteed. Among the funds that have caught our attention, citions Pictet-High Dividend Selection (Code: LU0503634221).

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"The euro is a rock against the crisis. "This declaration of Gylfi Arnbjornsson, President of Iceland's largest union, released in turmoil in the euro area, out of place. "While a small floating national currency increases the flexibility and affects employees," he insists. Bryndis, she does not believe more in the EU and the euro area. "It does not work. The crown, however, allowed us to emerge quickly from the crisis, "said the young woman, who works in a bookstore, very committed to the sovereignty of his country. These two strong views illustrate the gap between pro-and anti-Europe.

Iceland began on June 27 last formal negotiations to enter the European Union. At the end, Icelanders will vote in a referendum.The challenge for the small island in the far north that is just three years of severe recession, is to join the single currency.

The debate in Reykjavik is far from settled, including the center-left coalition government, like the Minister of Economy Social Democratic supporter of the euro and its counterpart of Finance defends the virtues of the crown.

"The devaluation of over 40% has boosted the competitiveness of our exports. The gain exceeds the final cost. Unemployment would have been much worse, "says Green Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson. With two key economic sectors: aluminum and fishing account for 80% of exports. In this land swept by the waters and winds so imposing nature, the farm lobby and fishing make their voices heard. They reject the decisions of Brussels and its quotas.Yet, in fact, Iceland is already integrated into the European Union.

The case "Icesave" three years ago that poisons relations with Great Britain and the Netherlands also maintained Euroscepticism. The State has spent 15% of GDP to save its national banks but refused to compensate the foreign customers of the bank Icesave, bankruptcy. An early decision of the European Court of Justice could force Reykjavik to set the slate of 8 billion euros. "The bank Landsbanki has the means to repay by selling its assets revalued since the crisis," said the minister.

Indebtedness

Three years to regain control of the IMF, the economy drastically, radical restructuring of the banks have put the country on track for growth, helped by a crown devalued no faxing pay day loans.In the field, if the maintenance of a welfare state and the strength of social ties, related to the geography of the place and its small population, have reduced the impact, the crisis is far from over. Reflecting Hildigunnur Sverrisdottir, 35, architect, married with three children. "We are living a nightmare, every month, our debts pile up, we have no visibility and perspective," she confesses.

This family alone synthesizes all the symptoms of the crisis Iceland: Hidlig lost his job after the explosion of the housing bubble, the couple bought a house at full price. They chose a loan in foreign currency – yen, Swiss franc and euro – more attractive as deemed stable and offering lower interest rates. This not to mention local specificity to index mortgages on inflation, which reached its highest, 18%.Result, many Icelanders have seen the value of their loans soar. "In my generation, everyone has lost an average of 10 million crowns," says Hubert Koziet, who suffered a pay cut and an increase of one third of its credit.

Unable to repay their credit, Hidlig and her husband were offered a government program, reserved for owners 13 .500, which is to cap credit 110% of the value of the dwelling and convert crown. "We do not know what to do, we are still negotiating with our bank, we do not rule out leaving the country. Many of our friends, architect, engineer, accountant … went to Denmark and the United States. "

Counter the brain drain and attract new investment, are the future challenges for sustainable growth in Iceland. Because the economy remains crippled by capital controls and political instability.Ironically, today is not money that is lacking in the small island – banks are full of capital that the Icelanders and businesses could exfiltrer abroad – but it suffers from a lack of confidence in the future and the political elites.

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The CGT said it was "scandalous" the vote Wednesday night in committee in the Assembly, a provision to relax the modulation of working in a company … following an agreement with the unions. "An employer may require the employee to work 48 hours one week and 10 hours the following week without it being able to challenge" the critical and central Montreuil.

The Ministry of Labour – that supports this section of the bill of UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann on the simplification of the law – has meanwhile another interpretation. "A decision of the Supreme Court provided that a modulation of working time resulting from an agreement with the unions needed to be implemented, the authorization of each employee, reported a near Xavier Bertrand.With this arrangement, such a collective agreement shall not affect the employment contract and may be applied without risk of blocking. "

At the CFDT, the bell sound is different. If the union does not have a problem on the philosophy of the article, it criticizes the wording and lack of precision. "The fact that a collective agreement on the organization of work does not change the contract of employment is rather in the right direction because it legitimizes the agreements with the unions, says Marcel Grignard, the Secretary-General fast payday loan no faxing. Would have had the law specifies the amplitude modulation acceptable.Acter even by collective agreement, a passage of 35 hours to 38 hours a week on the other has a different impact on the lives of employees that decide to make them work at night or the weekend. "

Night work is not affected

Argument dismissed out of hand by the government for that night work or Sunday is the subject of specific provisions in the Labour Code and is therefore outside the scope of the law Warsmann.

For the CFDT, the problem of this law to be voted on first reading Tuesday by deputies, is elsewhere. "It's a catch-all text contains hundreds of articles, and unions have been consulted on those relating to labor law, while many others have an impact on the lives of the employees' discontent Marcel Grignard.The parliamentarians have in fact since 2009 the requirement to seek their views on unions before any bill affecting only the Labour Code. But not on other areas of law.

The contours of the nationalization of Dexia emerge. When Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel discussed the rescue of banks in the euro area in Berlin, Prime Minister François Fillon, his counterpart Yves Leterme and representatives of Luxembourg have them addressed this issue in a summit to looks like a marathon. And this morning, after a council of ministers, Belgium has decided to take control of 100% of Dexia Bank Belgium, the Belgian entity of the institution present in retail banking, with an investment of 4 billion euros. A price at the bottom of the valuation range expected by shareholders, who were betting on an amount of between 3 and 7.5 billion euros. The Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders believes that this amount is "reasonable."Belgium intends to remain for several years proprietor of the bank in order to "continuity" before the network to lean a private actor.

The board of directors supports the offer of Dexia in Brussels, saying it is part of the "social interest" group. It also ensures that the 600 employees of the Dexia holding will be reclassified to the various subsidiaries promised a recovery.

Meanwhile, states have agreed on the allocation of guarantees to make to the future "bad bank" that remain after the dismantling or the defeasance structure to isolate the assets at risk. "States have agreed to divide this guarantee in proportions similar to those of 2008 (during the rescue of Dexia), 60.5% for Belgium, 36.5% for France and 3% for Luxembourg," said the Belgian government.

For its part, the French state must create a new bank dedicated to communities, both owned by the Postal Bank and the Deposit CDC. The Board of Directors has appointed Dexia director Pierre Mariani to conduct these negotiations. His copy to a detailed plan of recovery of the industry is expected "in the coming weeks."

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The diagnosis of "Dr. Disaster" is clear: "Most advanced economies are on their way to a new recession." Nouriel Roubini said at a conference organized by Bloomberg, the latest economic statistics published overseas suggest that the United States, Britain and the major countries in the euro area have even one foot into it.

U.S. consumer confidence is indeed stable in September at a level close to its lowest point reached two years ago at the height of the crisis. American households are also more likely to say that it is difficult to find a job. At the same time, European governments are struggling to resolve the debt crisis.

Thus the eyes of the president and co-founder of the fund Roubini Global Economics, "the question is not whether or not there will an economic contraction, but rather what will be the extent of recession and if we know a new international financial crisis. " The influential Economist states that "the answer to these questions depends on what happens in the euro area and whether European leaders will be able to act together." At the same time, the preacher of the crisis of 2008 states that "politicians have no more cartridges."

And pessimism legendary Nouriel Roubini told him that the consequences of the debt crisis in Europe could be "worse" than the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance

Gloomy predictions that echo the advice provided by Nouriel Roubini to its own customers. In a letter theoretically confidential, the owner of consulting firm Roubini Global Economic Financial has in fact recently recommended its clients to sell their assets to European sovereign debt. According to him, and they realize their "hit of the year." Nouriel Roubini has hammered "take the money and run away easy payday loans."

And if the man turns and respected professor of economics at the head trader of an investment fund, was able to foresee the crisis "subprime" as 2006, it has not always been right. When the stock market index S & P 500 fell to its lowest level in twelve years in March 2009, Nouriel Roubini believed then that he would continue to fall.But the American flag then flew by 65% ​​in the year 2009! Thus remains to be hoped that this time the predictions of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance will not be realized.

Economists forecast break their

One by one, the big banks revise downward their growth forecasts. These days, economists Exane BNP Paribas announced that they did not exclude a more "negative growth" at the end of the year in France. Societe Generale CIB provides a near-zero growth in activity in the third (+0.1%) and fourth quarter (+0.2%). For its part Bank of America Merrill Lynch table does more for France than on a 1.5% growth in 2011.

Involved, the crisis in the eurozone, according to economists Groupama: "Since the beginning of the summer, the expectations of businesses and consumers are deteriorating sharply, especially in Germany, most likely because of the crisis of governance European ". Clearly, the panic in financial markets and the ongoing crisis on the front of the public debt plunge consumers and businesses in the wait.

But at present, "it is very difficult to judge the extent and duration of the downturn," said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist of Exane BNP Paribas.

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The rebound posted the day before continuing carefully. After closing the session in the green, with a gain of 1.87% to 2949.14% points, the CAC 40 index opened his session by small increase of 0.69% to 2969.46 points, in the wake of Wall Street and Asian stock markets. Investors cautiously welcomed the determination shown by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Prime Minister of Greece George Papandreou during a conference call Wednesday night to Athens out of the crisis. Same upward trend in other European financial centers: the FTSE-100 wins from 0.67% to 5262.05 points, the FTSE Milan Mib rose 0.69% to 14,264 points and the Dax in Frankfurt rose by 0 , 87% to 5386.86 points.

For now, the markets show their confidence in the ability of the euro area to help Athens to prevent the country are lacking, and is forced out of the single currency. At the end of their conference, the Franco-German and was convinced "that the place of Greece is well and truly in the euro area." But on one condition, also very explicit: "The implementation of strict and effective recovery program of the Greek economy supported by the countries of the euro area and the IMF and which conditions the disbursement of future tranches of the program. "George Papandreou was quick to deceive, confirming" the absolute determination of his government to take all necessary measures to implement all commitments. "For the budget minister Valérie Pécresse, what the Prime Minister of Greece were "reassured" the euro area, she said on Thursday LCI.

The U.S. maintains pressure on Europe

To this, add the announcement of the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) said on Wednesday they could increase their holdings of bonds denominated in euros. Brazil has such willingness to participate in a "global effort" against the economic crisis that affects rich countries, said the same day the President of Brazil Dilma Rousseff. Meanwhile, Italy, whose rates have soared during bond, has denied media reports that she would have asked China to invest in debt.

U.S. side, however, no way to release the pressure on Europe.It "must do more" in the words of Timothy Geithner, U.S. Treasury Secretary, who must participate in a meeting Friday of finance ministers in Europe. In an interview Wednesday on the financial channel CNBC, he considers, however, that the Europeans "has the capacity" to resolve the crisis, seeing as a good thing that they "recognize that they are late."

Note that Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the IMF, should give a speech in Washington on "Challenges and solutions for the global economy and the IMF" to 16 hours. While Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, should speak at a conference in Washington on the regulation of systemic risk in the early afternoon.

Oil prices continue to fall

On the macroeconomic front, figures on employment in the euro zone for the second quarter are expected, and inflation in August.

In France, the trade deficit is expected to reach 75 billion euros this year, a new sad record after the 56 billion euros recorded in 2008, says Les Echos.

For its part, Spain on Thursday to conduct a bond issue.

Finally, many figures are expected in the U.S., including inflation for the month of August, the current account balance in the second quarter, the weekly claims for unemployment and industrial production for the month of August .

On the foreign exchange market, the euro appears down 0.16% to 1.372 dollar on Thursday. In turn, oil prices continued to fall, after figures showing a decline in demand for refined products in the United States, and while the markets remain worried about the situation in the euro zone, analysts said.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October lost 43 cents to 88.48 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 53 cents to 111.87 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

The banking sector, including Societe Generale (0.29% to 17.43 euros), BNP Paribas (1.04% to 27.18 euros) and Credit Agricole (1.80 to 5.31%) will be once again scrutinized by investors. The crisis became systemic, according to a document sent to the European Union finance ministers and obtained by Reuters, which also recommended a further strengthening of bank resources. In addition, two out of three French believe that the weakening of the banking sector related to the debt crisis could threaten their economies, according to a CSA poll released Wednesday to Les Echos.

• LVMH (1.25% to 113.20 euros)

The group announced Wednesday it had chosen Jordi Constans, come to Danone, to succeed Yves Carcelle at the head of Louis Vuitton in 2013.

• ArcelorMittal (2.68% to 13.23 euros)

The company promised to stop its steel plant in Florange (Moselle) would be temporary, said Wednesday the French government.

• Areva (2.04% to 21 euros)

The nuclear expert will present its strategic plan in early December through improved operational performance, an adjustment of investment and possible asset sales, said its president of dirctoire in an interview for Echoes.

• Publicis (0.56% to 30.66 euros)

The group announced Thursday the acquisition of 100% stake in a public relations agency in the United States, Schwartz Communications, which specializes in technology and health, for an undisclosed sum.

• Bouygues (0.53% to 24.86 euros)

Wednesday, Bouygues Construction, through the company Eirene, delivered the first 53 service centers and respond to the DIT (Directorate of transport infrastructure under the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transportation and housing), according to Reuters.Eirene now provides maintenance and management of these buildings for 28 years.

• Technip (0.76% to 67.89 euros)

The French group of Petroleum Engineering has won a contract for facilities ammonia-urea fertilizer in Port-Gentil (west of Gabon), from Gabon Fertilizers Company, said in a statement.

• Cellectis (6.02% to 5.99 euros)

The company will acquire the Swedish company Cellartis specialist tools for research and development in vitro derived stem cells, as part of a contract valuing the approximately 33.8 million.

• Hermes

The luxury group said that trading in its title would be suspended Thursday pending the decision of the Court of Appeal of Paris on the exemption granted by the AMF on the buyout of minority interests.

While a lack of Greece is closer every day, the question of the nationalization of banks is back on the front of the stage due to the exposure of French banks to Greece. In exchange, banking stocks are under pressure. Since the beginning of the year, Societe Generale, in fact, over 60% of its stock value and displays a low for 20 years, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, a little less than half.

A situation that the political leaders finally responded. "A nationalization of French banks is totally premature and beside the point," said this morning the Minister of Industry, Eric Besson, on RMC / BFM TV. The latter said that the banks have "very well" stress tests Europe last summer.

If right, then we answer in the negative, this is not the case on the side of the Socialist Party.Thus, to François Hollande, the Socialist candidate for the primary, "If it happened that there is a lack of Greece and the banks are brought to realize losses, there would be an appeal to the State, as in the subprime crisis. The state should not lend to banks, but must take a stake in their capital, "he told the Journal du Dimanche.

"The banks have lied to us in 2008"

For their part, EU officials remain confident in the strength of French banks. The President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, has confirmed that central banks were ready to provide liquidity to banks should they need it cash advance loan. "Whatever the scenario Greek and therefore regardless of the provisions to go, French banks have the means to cope," said Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France.

What some experts do not agree. "Banks have lied in 2008 and probably still hiding toxic chemicals in their balance sheets," said Marc Fiorentino, CEO of Monfinancier.com, the JDD. Societe Generale has just announced a new savings plan which relate primarily toxic assets, mainly U.S., made unwanted by the financial crisis and the explosion of the market "subprime" U.S..

For the expert, "The State must enter the capital of French banks up to 30%." Which he said would cost taxpayers between 50 and 100 billion euros. Same story on the side of Dessertine Philippe, Director of the Institute of High Finance. "The state is the only one who can help banks recapitalize," he says.The question is how the state will fund this operation and especially if nationalization does not require that other European countries do the same.

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