International News

For the second time since 2009, Spain fell into recession. The Spanish economy has indeed contracted 0.3% in first quarter 2012 compared to end 2011, according to preliminary official figures released Monday. It is however slightly better than expected: the Spanish Central Bank expected a 0.4% decline in activity over the period.

After degradation of the Spanish note by Standard & Poor's, the publication of a record unemployment rate in March and fears more acute in the health of banks, the bad news accumulates in Madrid.

In the first quarter of 2012, only exports and tourism have supported activity. But their strength was more than offset by the effects of the austerity plan introduced by the center-right government of Mariano Rajoy, of unprecedented severity. Moreover, the cleanup of a long over-indebted economy, household businesses through the state, beating down domestic consumption. The proposed increase in VAT, under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, should accentuate this trend.

"The austerity trap"

So much so that the International Labor Organization (ILO), in its report published on Monday, sets up Spain as an example not to follow a policy solely focused on rigor. She stressed that "the deficit was reduced by just over 9% of GDP in 2010 to 8.5% of GDP in 2011: a very small reduction after a drastic austerity program." For 2012, the government had to moderate its deficit reduction target, it expects to either 4.4% but 5.3% of GDP, given the deteriorating situation. For the ILO, "the trap of austerity is being shut down."

The Spanish economy should continue to suffer, economists fear. "We expect an acceleration of the recession in the coming quarters, in parallel with the rise of austerity measures," said Evelyn Herrmann, economist at BNP Paribas. "Things should get worse before it gets better," says Martin van Vliet, of ING Bank.

Unemployment, already at a record level of 24.44%, should continue to climb. It should eventually reach more of an asset over four in Spain, provides the analyst consensus. Symbol of the Spanish slump, the construction industry, long time driver of the economy because of swelling of the housing bubble, should continue to lay off. It accounts for another 9% of employment, against 6% on average in the eurozone.  

Fears on banks

"The worsening situation on the labor market will have a particularly negative impact on banks," notes Ricardo Santos, an expert in Southern Europe at BNP Paribas. "The share of loans" non-performing "(that is to say, threatening never to be repaid, Ed) is expected to increase and represent 9% in late 2012." To which are added 176 billion euros inventory of buildings and land "problem", that is to say to the uncertain value, as counted from the Spanish Central Bank. Country's only hope in the short term, the "Marshall Plan" for growth in project and unveiled in Brussels on Saturday by the daily El Pais. According to him, he is expected to reach 200 billion euros, or 4% of GDP of the European Union. But Brussels has denied, insisting that these figures "had no basis."  

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The conservative party of Angela Merkel (CDU) just make a new turn to conquer the center-left electorate for the election scheduled next year. Once he was fiercely opposed for several years, the union of conservative Chancellor has finally decided to support the introduction of a minimum wage in Germany.

Holding that the adoption of a "generalized minimum wage" in German might undermine negotiations between industry by industry employers, unions and employees, the CDU had long opposed the project.

But the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced the development of a bill going in this direction. According to his plan, an apolitical committee comprising representatives of employers and employees will be trained to fix a minimum wage at the federal level. This committee will reassess the amount of income each year. Industrial areas that have already negotiated a minimum wage, will not be affected by the introduction of national minimum wage, even if its level is lower. It remains to convince liberal allies of the Chancellor. Advocate for the Mittelstand, the SME network which is the strength of German industry, the FDP strongly opposes the minimum wage.

Centrist electorate

By offering a new bone of contention with the FDP, the Chancellor has again demonstrated that it has no intention of taking gloves with the Liberals in disarray. Her greatest hope is to cut the grass under the feet of his rival Social Democrats and environmentalists, who planned to make the minimum wage one of their main proposals for the parliamentary elections in September 2013. Since coming to power in 2005, Angela Merkel has pushed his party to focus on issues traditionally left – environmental issues, education and child protection – to seduce the centrist electorate. The Chancellor made his most dramatic turnaround last year after the disaster of Fukushima, deciding in the closure of German nuclear power stations and programming for 2022 abandonment of atomic energy. Von der Leyen hopes his proposal will offer a minimum wage "huge boost" to the CDU at the regional elections scheduled May 13 in North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous regional state of Germany.

The CDU, however, risk of alienating some of its traditional supporters. "The disastrous consequences of such solutions can be found in European countries that have adopted similar rules, and judge Dieter Hundt, president of German Employers (BDA). Once again it is the weakest who suffer from these measures, because this will complicate their entry into the labor market. "The unions believe instead that the shortage of manpower across the Rhine to help negotiate end of the precariousness of wages.

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They are young, teeming with ideas, with a bright professional future and – especially – refuse to see leave a ruined world. The crisis that is sweeping the Western economies over the past four years and upsetting the global equilibrium leads to a resurgence of activism among young entrepreneurs. Alongside institutional think tanks – Davos and other circles of economists – forums bringing together young leaders "of tomorrow" are multiplying on the planet. And, more recently, now these kids want to be heard from their elders.

One of the oldest forums, the St. Gallen Symposium will meet for the 42nd time in Switzerland, 3 and 4 May. 200 young entrepreneurs, teachers or students compare their ideas to "deal with the risks" threatening the planet, watched by 600 business leaders or senior officials, including several "guest stars" – Josef Ackermann (Deutsche Bank) and Jean -Claude Trichet (former President of the ECB).

But in the East also arise new think tanks wanting to prove that their young entrepreneurs are equally able to invite the sharing of growth. Created in Rhodes in 2010, the Youth Forum, an offshoot of the think-tank based Time Youth in the Czech Republic is one of them. His goal, happy idealist, is "to reconcile the views of emerging nations" to "lay the foundations for a better future."

300 youth from 70 countries, activists, environmentalists, industrialists but also specialists in new technologies meet once a year to get to know and "create the world of their dreams," aided by economists or experts phenomena societal. All under the protective wing of the "Global Forum of World Civilization".

Groundswell

The forum that promotes traditional values ​​intends to "strengthen cultural exchanges on an equal basis," says one who directs, Vladimir Yakunin, President of Russian Railways and close to Vladimir Putin. "Clearly, today, we can not conceive of unilateral world." Fed on an example that of Russia: "We have in our country 190 nationalities and 80 different faiths cohabiting together, and the only way to achieve this is to let mingle our histories and traditions on an equal footing, without that one takes precedence over the other, "says the Russian leader.

A speech that collects a strong chord with young activists from the developing world, who want to invite to the table of developed countries. "The bipolar world is finished," said the businessman and political leader of India, Sam Pitroda at the last Youth Forum held in New Delhi in late March. "The American model based on consumption can not agree to the three billion poor people who have access to anything," he added. For the latter, which could contribute to the post of President of India, in 2013, "we must build a new world, a new model, based on connectivity."

Anecdotally, even idealistic, seen from France, young people reflect these forums, in fact, a fundamental shift, in parallel with the emergence of Brics, from which emerges a desire to make its voice heard on a global scale, for the fast-growing economies. And when one is surprised to see yet few young Europeans to participate are answered on the side of the Youth Time, that "the ultimate goal is obviously to attract more young Western entrepreneurs, to enhance dialogue and exchanges. "

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Cemented over the Internet and social networks, legends are built today at full speed. Especially in the "global village" of finance. Demonstrated experience in recent days by crossing Iksil Bruno, senior trader but anonymous until last Friday the bank JP Morgan in London.

The man remains discreet, understandably. Within days, he became the "whale of London", or "the Thames", or "white" – we do not know too much – or Voldemort, the terrible witch of the Harry Potter … The number of nicknames given to it becomes suspect. The story is told that then took a dramatic turn when it was revealed that the banker in question was French, a fact which would be enough to make a "trader crazy," Kerviel in a power nap.

This trader is part of the Chief Investment Office of JP Morgan in London. Mission: to cover the global credit risk of the bank. A bank, remember, which is one of the first in the world with some 2.3 trillion dollars in assets, including nearly 1 trillion of bank loans or bond companies.

Cover such a balance, that is to say smooth risk, entails putting a lot of money in the balance. And that's what the CIO of JP Morgan in London: its positions would reach $ 350 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. A figure which should not be misunderstood. Within this volume, the positions that bet on the rise of a particular index are largely offset by positions that bet on a decline, leaving the final few tens of millions of dollars, still in danger Loss … or possibility of gain.

An aberration of market

Why the activity of this team of JP Morgan is she suddenly appeared in full light? Bruno Iksil would take very large positions on a particular index, a derivative that replicates the behavior of CDS (credit default swaps) of some 121 companies short term personal loans. Such large positions that its movements can only move the value of this product, regardless of the price of 121 CDSs that compose it. A market aberration which obviously was not without consequences on some hedge funds, put in losses by the orders of the influential CIO JP Morgan. It is in this context it seems that some seem to have wanted to settle accounts in the press intermediary.

Behind "the matter of the whale in London," we therefore call one of those pretty poker games including financial traders have the secret. JP Morgan, who has not the reputation of being a bank-casino chooses to treat it with discretion. She is content to know that the activities of its London office are intended to cover its loan portfolio, and that the positions taken are knowingly.

The story may therefore be short-lived. Even if it raises real questions about the functioning of finance today. The first key of course the lack of market transparency of derivatives products, and in particular credit derivatives, whose gross volume reached tens of billions of dollars worldwide. The second, current, examines the nature of transactions. When these volumes are involved, is it still just hedging strategy or can we not think that JP Morgan also plays some of his capital? Soon, this question is no longer just theoretical: under Volcker rule that will apply to U.S. banks that collect deposits, such as JP Morgan, will no longer have the right to make the proprietary trading .

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This is not the strong political message expected by Paris, but Europe has decided to speak up to protect themselves from competitors judged disloyal. Under control of the Commission, certain public may soon be prohibited suppliers from countries that close themselves the door to EU exporters.

This "reciprocity" commercial, written in a bill introduced Wednesday, is officially open to third markets rather than to protect the old continent. "Europe is an open market, and we do not see why others would not like us. It is therefore encouraging, "said EU Trade Commissioner, Karel De Gucht.

The compromise, snatched after eighteen months, is far from 'Buy European Act "recently proposed by Nicolas Sarkozy, even in small-step approach

. "Protectionism"

The bill is based on two mechanisms. One, almost consensual, will allow Brussels to close the procurement of Member States to a third country guilty of repeated discrimination against European companies. Beijing, which closed its borders to any technology that has not previously "registered", is like a number one target.

This is the second mechanism that clashed European capitals, notably France, the Netherlands and Britain. It would enable a single Contracting Party in the EU – a municipality, for example – to get the Commission to prohibit a tender to foreign competition under the pretext of non-reciprocity, if the procurement covered exceeds 5 million euros.

To impose this device, which struck the most liberal of the Commission, Michel Barnier had to defend himself publicly accused of "protectionism". With a strong argument in a recession: Brussels amounts to 12 billion euros a lack of European companies to export because of obstacles put in third countries. Furthermore, public procurement represents about 20% of GDP in the EU, and they escape to international competition rules, set by the WTO.

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Since the tsunami of 11 March and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the Japanese atomic reactors were arrested, one after the other to be auscultated. Today, on the fifty-four boilers that supplied 28% of electricity in the Archipelago, only two work. And they should, they also stop in April to be tested for safety.

The streets of Tokyo shine though all their neon lights, and the life of the megalopolis of 35 million people saw the usual pace of its thousands of trains daily. Certainly, the corridors of Meti, the Ministry of Economy, are left in the dark, for an example. But the great campaign to save energy this summer ended.

This return to almost normal life despite the closure of fifty-two reactors, Japan pays a high price. Imports of oil and gas only for rotating thermal power plants in 2011 jumped by 77% and 18%. For the first time in thirty-one years, Japan had a trade deficit in 2011, 24 billion euros. And began the year with a record monthly deficit of 15 billion euros for the month of January, dug by the price of crude.

In this context, the government and power companies do not hide their desire: to restart nuclear plants faster. Large industrial fear a surge in the cost per kilowatt hour are pushing in this direction. The electrician Tepco, which operated the plant in Fukushima Daiichi and navigates to the brink of bankruptcy, announced an increase in its rates 17% for its major customers.

Restart nuclear facilities, just a year after the nuclear accident which forced 100,000 people to evacuate contaminated area? "For the Japanese, it's almost existential debate," says a French expert on energy, visiting Tokyo. The surveys that follow indicate that the majority of the population wants a nuclear phase-out.

Breach of trust

Reflecting Yuichiro Yonei, student 23 years specializing in energy met at the University of Tsukuba, who lived on March 11 as "a break" pay day loans. The young man, who no longer has confidence in the government's word on disaster management Fukushima, became antinuclear. Many young people who share his position on social networks come to sign the petitions in the tent erected militants since the fall before the Ministry of Economy.

The government Yoshihiko Noda walking on eggshells. It will not go into force. Formally, it does not need the green light of regional governors, elected, but nevertheless takes shelter behind them. To restore confidence, after pointing a report of TEPCO and failures of government, the government is reforming the nuclear safety authority, discredited.

Sixteen reactors only have registered for "stress test". Two of them, Ohi 3 and 4, have been deemed suitable by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and could be the first to restart.

The government plans to present in June or July of its energy strategy for the coming years. "We must remove our dependence on nuclear power and build medium to long term a company that will not have to rely on this energy," said the Prime Minister Noda Saturday.

By the summer season of peak power consumption due to the massive use of air conditioning, the Japanese will have to make tough choices: restart their nuclear reactors or pay the current high price; suffer outages new current or reduce their consumption of 10 to 15%.

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Personal loans and other revolving loans no longer seduce the French. In January, output fell by 7.4% compared to January 2011, according to the ASF (French Association of Financial Companies). Last year, after a strong first quarter (+9.3%), it had already begun a sharp decline: – 1.8% in the second quarter – the third and 3.7% – 4.5% in the fourth . "The French market fell to its 2000 level. Production in 2011 was 14% below the historic peak of 2007, "said Bruno Salmon, president of the ASF.

The revolving credit continues to decline

To explain this disaffection, professionals invoke the loss of consumer confidence in an economic anxiety, but also lower sales of new cars, and therefore the associated credits. The car loans decreased by 14.5% in January over the same month last year, and 7.8% over the last three months.

Also involved, the law Lagarde who oversaw the marketing of revolving credit, these "reserves" of money in which the borrower draws at will as and its needs.

This law compels such professionals to offer clients an alternative to the revolving loan in excess of 1000 euros. They must also include in each monthly payment a minimum repayment of capital. The loan term is shortened, and the amount becomes smaller. Revolving credit is transformed gradually into a cash credit for small amounts, for short periods, for small repetitive purchases.

The impact of the law Lagarde

"The law Lagarde has reduced from 12% to 15% of the openings of new revolving loans and a decrease of 20% of new uses of credit lines already open," said Francoise Guillabert Palle, general delegate of the ASF.

In total, the production of these loans fell by 6.1% in 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of decline. They also represent more than 35% of consumer loans made by members of the ASF, against 40% in 2009.

In a recent study, the French Banking Federation (FBF) also emphasized the lower French interest in the consumer credit. Only 3.6% of respondents were planning to buy one within six months, against 4.1% a year earlier.

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In a mobile market completely disrupted by the arrival of Free Mobile, Bouygues Telecom said it had lost 159,000 customers, of which 134,000 went to Free Mobile. This represents 1.4% of its fleet of 11.3 million mobile customers. Last week, Orange announced that it had lost, for its part, 201,000 mobile customers in total, or 0.7% of its fleet.

Result, Bouygues Telecom expects a decline of 10% of its turnover in 2012 to 5.14 billion euros. The arrival of Free Mobile is not the only cause. Martin Bouygues, CEO of the group, also cited pell-mell "regulation, the end of the differential termination, terminal costs, Chatel law which is one of the most protective for the consumer."

To resist, the group announced a plan to reduce costs this year. "Our goal is a plan to save 300 million euros, which will be achieved in part through new commercial offerings but also using our flexibility on external loads," said Martin Bouygues. The group, which has 9,800 employees in late 2011, should not undergo abrupt reduction of the workforce. "By cons, what is clear is that staffing levels, recruitment Bouygues Telecom are completely blocked (…). We will let the natural decline to do, "he said, adding that cost savings could affect contractors, subcontractors and suppliers.

"Free Mobile makes the cuckoo"

Bouygues Telecom is also focusing on innovation. The group decided to have a strong positioning in the offers "bare" (without telephone and commitment, 100% web) with B & You, and with the offers services through Eden. It will market its new box with the Sensation "the most powerful processor market and offers the largest VOD thanks to agreements with TF1," said Martin Bouygues. He announced that the band would embark on the next generation mobile (4G) this year and was pleased to have obtained frequencies' en o "- in the band 800 MHz – stressing" they allow a very good coverage inside buildings. "

Martin Bouygues has admitted that the offer of Free Mobile was very aggressive. "But it is by no means a reflection of its production costs. Free Mobile is the cuckoo on the Orange network, he said. The telecom industry is a fixed cost. If someone could have a variable cost structure, if there was distortion of competition, it would in my view extremely serious, "he added, without elaborating.

On the roaming agreement that allows to use the Free Mobile network Orange, Martin Bouygues considers it "would not be unusual that this contract be made public, since the two competitors know, and two others not." All these topics should be discussed at the meeting between Martin Bouygues Telecom and Constable (ARCEP). "If we must suffer and die, it will be the fault of the regulator," he concluded.

Yesterday, Bouygues share lost 2.09%, to 23.88 euros, while the action Iliad (Free) clôturait on a record 99.55 euros, up 2.10%.

Not easy to swap clothes for those of David over Goliath without being criticized. For nearly twenty-five years, Apple has enjoyed the affection – not to speak of passion – to some extent by this small company, the maverick world of personal computers and a thorn in Microsoft Almighty .

In less than a year, Apple acquired the status of the business world's most expensive, top selling smartphones in the fourth quarter 2011, a number of computers at HP (by adding the sales of iPad and Mac) . The Apple brand has always had detractors. Its success has added to criticism, particularly those concerning working conditions in its Chinese subcontractors. These are nothing new, but the good financial results of Apple have redoubled the ardor of his detractors. In late January, the New York Times has published a lengthy investigation dependent, widely broadcast on the Net.

Working conditions of employees of Chinese subcontractors Apple are regularly placed on the hot seat. The U.S. media decry the use of children and failure to follow safety rules (poisonings and explosions occurred in Chinese factories).

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Airlines in the world play the shows. While the carbon tax was introduced on 1 January by the European Union in respect of all airlines that fly over the European area, the latter will be forced to carry them out in spring 2013. Time for States to shout out loud that "their" companies will not pay. India, Russia, China … a total of 26 members, not least, on 36 of the Aviation Organisation (ICAO) are resisting. In the U.S., the House of Representatives voted late last year to ban text to American companies to pay.

Like China, reiterated yesterday that his refusal to comply with European legislation, most Member States of ICAO criticize legislation "regional" which will result in new financial burdens. The system of emissions trading scheme set up by the Union provides that companies normally open in the coming weeks "Account" with their national administration of civil aviation and implement a system to measure their CO2 emissions.

Doubly penalized

In March 2013, then they should pay the amount corresponding to 15% of 2012 emissions by the amount per tonne of CO2. And China has calculated that his companies would have to pay 97 million euros for 2012 and four times in 2020. In total, the measure would cost € 705 million to companies in the world, still under 2012.

Penalties set by the Commision are of two types: a fine of 100 euros per tonne of CO2 emissions and, even more dissuasive, the flight ban in the European Union. But, meanwhile, out states may also set up an arsenal of retaliation. It may include trade measures in respect of Airbus, the European aircraft manufacturer, whose best customers are called China Southern, China Eastern and Air China but also India Indigo Air Asia or Malaysia.

Leaders of European companies fear they will be doubly penalized. First, because they are inherently more vulnerable to European tax. On the other hand, because they also fear being victims of these countries slingers. "These states may ask us to pay a landing fee that would offset the amount that our competitors outside Europe have to pay when coming home," is concerned officer of a company of the Old Continent. The European Commissioner for Climate Connie Hedegaard judge it just increase the ticket prices a few dollars to offset it. An argument inaudible at times of crisis.

However, companies seem to rely on the slow pace of international decisions for a relaxation of regulations occurring before the first deadline for payment of this tax, in principle the first quarter of 2013.

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