Since Tuesday, investors are moving away from safe-haven assets following the various signs of recovery in the global economy. The success of Intel promote appetite for risk. What will weigh on the dollar. Just as the maintenance of the speech by the Fed, which promotes interest rates still very low even for long.
EUR / USD – Sessions hectic since early April
After the Easter weekend, there has been a depreciation of the euro against the dollar in a climate of distrust of so-called risky currencies. The operators were cooled in their appetite for risk because of their fear on the issue of Greece. The single currency has lost about 220 pips * from a quotation of dollar 1.3500 1.3282 U.S. dollar on Thursday at 10am (lowest of the week).
Then the tension on the markets have weakened.Speech by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB (European Central Bank) last Thursday, has eased the financial world. He said he pursued the policy of low interest rates up to 1% in the euro area. And it has said that "Greece was able to reduce its deficit" and had already started to employ strong measures.
Nothing better to give a boost to the euro. The last weekend, offering assistance to 30 billion euros – Athens does "not want to use" – the European Union gave a big blow oxygen, allowing the euro to rise around 1 36 dollar on Monday.After two sessions of stagnation (Monday and Tuesday), the exchange rate has increased again, bolstered by renewed investor optimism about the strength of the global recovery due to favorable economic statistics, while comments Fed chairman on a forecast of "moderate growth" have weighed on the greenback.
On Tuesday, the foreign exchange markets have welcomed the issuance by Athens Treasury bills.And on Wednesday, Ben Bernanke (Beige Book) reiterated Wednesday that the rate of the institution should remain close to zero, at which they are set since December 2008, for an extended period, dismissing speculation of an anticipated tightening of Fed monetary policy, which has given new impetus to the euro.
As expected by analysts Realtime Forex Tuesday, which saw the euro test the 1.3541 support for better back, it is mounted to 1.3667 to 18 hours.
CDN / JPY – Same trend
Nippon side, the euro followed the same "trend" * weekly against the yen. The single currency began a decline of more than 400 pips against the yen. On Monday, the euro / yen was quoted at 127.70 to touch a low of 123.40 yen. But from the response Trichet yesterday, the euro strengthened to 125.60 yen to return.
The yen fell for the sixth straight session against the euro, with one course from Wednesday to 127.07 yen against 126.83 yen the day before.
GBP / USD – Sterling held up better than the euro
Across the Channel, the BoE (Bank of England) has also left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, indicating that this was not the time to make a recovery rate of payday loan lenders.
Monetary side, the pound sterling, however, fared better than the euro against the dollar. Like British macro-economic figures emerged this week (GDP 0.4% and manufacturing output up 1.3%), the pound has evolved into a "range *" between 1.5130 and 1.5320 dollar.
* The cable is able to break this channel by treating up to 1.5473 dollar.
Against the yen, the pound again the delay and found almost the level of 144.21 yen on Monday.
CHF / EUR – Swiss Franc still going strong
On Wednesday, the Swiss franc 1.4362 per euro symbol. This is a very strong for the Swiss franc, which traded in 2009 almost all the time between 1.50 and 1.54.
Since the beginning of the year, the Swiss Frabce climbed more than 5%. This is not the business of the Swiss Central Bank, whose foreign exchange policy is heckled.
The yuan under the spotlight of the world
On Wednesday, Ben Bernanke, who appeared before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, reiterated that "the United States must continue to press China to bring it to revalue its currency, the yuan."Barack Obama this week's encounter homolgue Chinese President Hu Jintao on China's trade deficit background.
Most economists agree that the currency is undervalued – by 40% according to analysts and has been used to obtain an economy more oriented toward exports to domestic consumption.
On the one hand, in case of revaluation, China would be ready to counter the speculative bubbles that threaten, and inflationary pressures. But then again, remember that a more expensive yuan will be more expensive for the "Western" to fill all Chinese products.And they will have the effect of melt exchange reserves in dollars of the Chinese, which does allow them to buy as many more U.S. Treasury Bonds, and therefore finance the debt of the United States …
* Definitions
• Forex: For Foreign Exchange, or foreign exchange market
• Technical analysis: analyst or chartist. She studied graphic evolution courses. The research in the historical price behavior involved in a situation to predict the evolution of financial securities.
• Pips: Price Interest Point. Unit rating for foreign currency. It designates the last digit used: in the case of the euro, the fourth decimal place.
• Trend: trend.
• Range: range.
• Support: value as the price has very little chance to pass down.
• Resistant: value as the price has very little chance to overtake on the rise.
• EUR: Euro, USD: U.S. Dollar, or U.S. dollar JPY Japan Yen or Japanese yen, GBP: British Pound, CHF: Swiss franc.