In Greece, the good news is rare lately. The most indebted country in Europe would be out of recession in the first quarter of 2011, thanks to a rebound in activity of 0.8%, according to Eurostat and the Greek Authority statistics. A surprise, after a dip of 2.8% over the last three months of 2010, a figure significantly revised downward from earlier estimates of -1.6%.
"The resumption of growth in Greece is surprising: we expected the continuation of the recession," says Thibault Mercier, economist at BNP Paribas. "But that blip, probably driven by external trade, does not fundamentally change the situation: the austerity program has a strong impact on household consumption.Businesses can not borrow at very high rates and banks, whose health depends on the state of public finances, have limited access to liquidity. "Clearly, they can very easily give credit to their customers.
"The recession is it defeated?" Asks BNP Paribas. "Not really: the figures published so far do not provide details on the components of growth and numbers are often revised significantly after the first publication." These factors explain the downward revision by the European Commission's forecast Greek economy to the same Friday. It now expects a fall of 3.5% of the activity, against a fall of 3% previously envisaged. Accordingly, the government deficit is forecast at 9.5% of GDP, against 7.4% previously estimated.
The recovery is strengthening in the euro zone
Moreover, growth in the euro zone has more than doubled in the first quarter at +0.8% against +0.3% end of 2010, according to a first figure published by Eurostat.
It is true that several countries are still experiencing difficulties. Portugal has thus fallen into recession, with a contraction of 0.7% of GDP and the Italian economy has stagnated (+0.1%). Spain has recorded its share to a timid growth of 0.3%.
The average growth in the euro area was driven by the dynamism of its largest economies: France reported a surprise increase of its activity by 1%. Growth of 1.5% was even made by Germany!
