International News

The diagnosis of "Dr. Disaster" is clear: "Most advanced economies are on their way to a new recession." Nouriel Roubini said at a conference organized by Bloomberg, the latest economic statistics published overseas suggest that the United States, Britain and the major countries in the euro area have even one foot into it.

U.S. consumer confidence is indeed stable in September at a level close to its lowest point reached two years ago at the height of the crisis. American households are also more likely to say that it is difficult to find a job. At the same time, European governments are struggling to resolve the debt crisis.

Thus the eyes of the president and co-founder of the fund Roubini Global Economics, "the question is not whether or not there will an economic contraction, but rather what will be the extent of recession and if we know a new international financial crisis. " The influential Economist states that "the answer to these questions depends on what happens in the euro area and whether European leaders will be able to act together." At the same time, the preacher of the crisis of 2008 states that "politicians have no more cartridges."

And pessimism legendary Nouriel Roubini told him that the consequences of the debt crisis in Europe could be "worse" than the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance

Gloomy predictions that echo the advice provided by Nouriel Roubini to its own customers. In a letter theoretically confidential, the owner of consulting firm Roubini Global Economic Financial has in fact recently recommended its clients to sell their assets to European sovereign debt. According to him, and they realize their "hit of the year." Nouriel Roubini has hammered "take the money and run away easy payday loans."

And if the man turns and respected professor of economics at the head trader of an investment fund, was able to foresee the crisis "subprime" as 2006, it has not always been right. When the stock market index S & P 500 fell to its lowest level in twelve years in March 2009, Nouriel Roubini believed then that he would continue to fall.But the American flag then flew by 65% ​​in the year 2009! Thus remains to be hoped that this time the predictions of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of finance will not be realized.

Economists forecast break their

One by one, the big banks revise downward their growth forecasts. These days, economists Exane BNP Paribas announced that they did not exclude a more "negative growth" at the end of the year in France. Societe Generale CIB provides a near-zero growth in activity in the third (+0.1%) and fourth quarter (+0.2%). For its part Bank of America Merrill Lynch table does more for France than on a 1.5% growth in 2011.

Involved, the crisis in the eurozone, according to economists Groupama: "Since the beginning of the summer, the expectations of businesses and consumers are deteriorating sharply, especially in Germany, most likely because of the crisis of governance European ". Clearly, the panic in financial markets and the ongoing crisis on the front of the public debt plunge consumers and businesses in the wait.

But at present, "it is very difficult to judge the extent and duration of the downturn," said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist of Exane BNP Paribas.

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The U.S. stock markets opened sharply higher Tuesday. The Dow Jones climbed 1.61% to 11,231 points and the Nasdaq by 1.54% to 2254 points in early trade.

Monday, Wall Street had already finished in the green.

Since the beginning of the week, investors in Europe and the United States, is won over by a wave of optimism about the outcome of the crisis of sovereign debt. "The beginning of the week is placed under the sign of hope. Investors have decided to give credit to European policy makers and international willingness to find ways to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, "economists observe in Paris broker Aurel BGC. There are "high hopes that one is engaged in the right direction towards resolving the debt crisis in Europe," say experts on their side LBBW. Other analysts, however, want to caution.The strategists of the Crédit Mutuel-CIC believe that "the improvement should not last as rumors seem exaggerated. The expansion of EFSF does not solve the structural problems in Europe, while the challenge is there. "

The spokesperson of European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn, Europe is considering strengthening the capacity of the European support fund for countries in trouble (EFSF). Rumors press also reported a proposed quadrupling of the Fund's lending capacity to 2000 billion euros. In turn, an official of the ECB, the Austrian Ewald Nowotny, did not rule out declines in interest rates in the euro area.But soon, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble assured that Europeans had "no intention of bailing out" the EFSF.

Political leaders are still clearly divided on the responses to the debt crisis, while discussions on the payment of a new international loan to Greece, vital to enable it to avoid bankruptcy dragged on. At the same time discontent rises and Athens was again paralyzed Tuesday by a wave of strikes in public transport.

Oil opened up in New York

The euro was weakening on Tuesday to below $ 1.35. Mileu in the day, the euro stood at 1.3496 dollars, against 1.3523 dollars late Monday.He had fallen in session Monday to 1.3363 dollars, its lowest level since mid-January, prior to recover.

As for commodities, gold has recovered slightly this morning at 1640 dollars an ounce after declining over the last three sessions. Oil falls sharply higher this morning in Asian trade after having dropped more than eight dollars last week. Oil prices were moving up sharply at the opening Tuesday in New York, driven by renewed optimism for the determination of the Europeans to resolve the debt crisis in the eurozone business cards design.On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery traded at 82.64 dollars, up by $ 2.40 at the close on Monday night.

On the macroeconomic front, house prices in the United States remained stable in July compared with June, according to Case-Shiller survey released Tuesday by Standard and Poor's. The study, however, that over-year, declining home prices for sale widened in July to 4.1%, down less pronounced than the analysts thought.

As for values ​​to be followed on Tuesday:

As for values, Goldman Sachs will intensify its restructuring efforts, after a disastrous third quarter, which could be one of the worst ever recorded by the U.S. investment bank since it went public 12 years ago, says the New York Times.Goldman Sachs will be 1.2 billion to $ 1.45 billion savings goal of operation by mid-2012, the paper said on its website, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

The mysterious tablet that the online retailer Amazon.com Wednesday could present promises to be a star among the products' high-tech "of the season, even though the Seattle group has not yet revealed existence.Amazon Wednesday invited reporters to an event which he kept secret the subject, organized in a video production and music in Hell's Kitchen neighborhood of Manhattan.

Motorola Solutions is within the scope of an investigation by U.S. authorities, according to the Wall Street Journal, concerning a possible corruption in the course of its business in Europe.

The Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto, listed on Wall Street, announced Tuesday it had increased to 49% its stake in Canada's Ivanhoe Mines, the upper limit is included in an agreement between the two groups that intend to operate an entire mine copper and gold in Mongolia.

ONEOK announced expect to achieve a net profit of between 355 and 400 million in 2012, against 325 to 345,000,000 dollars in 2011.For its part, ONEOK Partners expects a net 740 to $ 800 million for the year 2012 against 630 to 660,000,000 for the year 2011, while natural gas volumes processed are expected to increase more than expected.

Also note, Standard & Poor's is within the scope of an investigation by the SEC, the U.S. stock market regulator, who questioned its rating of an issue of structured securities in 2007 just before the market collapse real estate, announced its parent company McGraw-Hill.

"Television will become the media on which the user will find all the services he needs, including health," said Philippe Delahaye, president of Toshiba Systems France. For nearly a year and for another six months, the Japanese tests, with the support of the General Council of Bas-Rhin, a service called Demeter and home support for elderly dependents.

The system set up involves monitoring remote computer. But not to frighten the people involved, the main unit is television, connected to the Internet. "The equipment costs about 6,000 euros full, two months' rent in a nursing home," said Philip Bell, general manager of Toshiba-Cebea, a subsidiary of Toshiba dedicated services.This includes television and home automation equipment, including a smoke detector, a wristband alarm in case of fall and appliances suitable for pathology (blood pressure, diabetes control …). Then, the service costs 200 euros per month, including Internet access.

"This allows medical personnel to perform remote controls, but also the patient to easily get in touch with family members through a videoconferencing system on the TV," said Philip Bell. Medical staff and the senior may also contact by mail, through an electronic pen. Just write on a single sheet, the text is automatically entered and the e-mail sent when the pen is rested on its base low interest rate personal loans. Forms to the attention of nurses and doctors have also been developed: just check the right boxes with the electronic pen and they are added to the medical record.It also allows for monitoring of medication, food … "We found that health staff was not comfortable with a keyboard, where the idea of ​​electronic pen, said Philip Bell . We are also working to develop a speech recognition system. "

Recurring revenues

For Toshiba, the objective is to develop this service at the national level but also in other countries. Japan pays attention to the experience of Alsace. Beyond the societal issues related to aging, a new economic model that is emerging. This type of service should allow the manufacturer to generate recurring revenue through subscriptions.

"The rise of the TV connected through the development of local services," added Philippe Delahaye.Most TVs sold today by Toshiba can be connected to the Internet, or consumers do not always use this function. By bringing seniors to the technology, Toshiba is not only the population but also those around them: Health care workers, children and grandchildren.

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Football, video games, magazines, sofas on which to lie down to watch football matches, all swallowing hot dogs and chips at will. The best place of all men … at least according to Ikea. It was at Sydney in the local store's Swedish distributor, that this "Mansland" was born. The logic is the same as for "Smaland" space for day care children present in all the Ikea stores around the world.

Already cleared of toddlers, women will finally be totally alone to shop. Only problem: after half an hour of bliss, a buzzer reminds the ladies half their existence, if they would have already forgotten. Mr. Mrs. So join to challenge his choice of linens, glass and lighting … and why not to pay at checkout.

No planned deployment in France

This solution to rally the spouses who shun Ikea citing another "Stockholm Syndrome" (birthplace of the group) is currently an isolated initiative. The operation took place over four days on the occasion of Father's Day in Australia. "A deployment of this kind of space for men is not in French stores," says Are there Ikea France. The French will have to still support their husbands and vice versa!

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BNP Paribas seeks to ensure she's back? The French bank has seen its share price loosen over 50% in three months could ask for help to private investors understood the Financial Times. The bank of rue d'Antin should send in the coming days envoys to the Middle East to test the appetite of potential investors if the bank would need money, reports the British newspaper.

Reuters indicates that other French banks have also started negotiations with Qatar for an investment of this type. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale declined to comment this information, the Elysee either. "BNP Paribas leads naturally as road shows each year to present the company and promote its work with investors around the world," said a Reuters spokesman for BNP Paribas.

According to the Financial Times, BNP Paribas might seek to raise up to EUR 2 billion from investors from Qatar and Abu Dhabi. One hypothesis, however, largely rejected by the executive director of the bank, Baudouin Prot. In an interview Thursday with the Echos, the manager believes that, for now, his group is properly capitalized. If necessary, the banker said preferred a strategy based on "a dual effort to set aside profits and reducing the size of the balance sheet" of the bank, rather than a capital increase.

And to convince the good health of his group, the leader said that BNP Paribas "announced one of the best half-year profits in its history, and works quite normally in the collection of savings and loan before adding that the bank is working normally. "Baudoin Prot said BNP Paribas' knows no other difficulty than its share price. "

The official regretted that "today, the concern of investors on the euro area and the problems of sovereign debt are that markets do not really take into account the information we give them." It must be said that the bill for the debt crisis is not insignificant for European banks. According to the IMF, they could potentially lose $ 200 billion. An amount that "does not constitute an estimate of additional capital requirements of banks," moderates the Fund.

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Diversify its funding sources to reduce dependence on banks: this is the objective of local government, at a time when bank credit is becoming scarcer. Tuesday, associations of elected officials have announced the creation of "a funding agency of local investment," the model of what is happening in Northern Europe. This vehicle will issue bonds on financial markets. It then lends to local authorities, medium and long term. To access these loans, municipalities, counties and regions in question will make a capital contribution to the agency. In a way, it is to launch "Eurobonds" across local authorities – even if the project was launched in 2009, before the debates which agitate Europe on the financing of its sovereign debt.

"Investors want to invest in the debt of French local authorities, which is very safe.But they have few means to do so, since only large communities issue bonds. We offer a suitable vehicle, "said Olivier Landel, Chief Executive of the Association of urban communities in France. Communities will therefore be the primary beneficiaries.

In addition, the agency should issue bonds at a good price. Elected officials hope that, despite the absence of government guarantee, the agency will be rated triple A by virtue of the quality of local debt (the latter must have an operating budget in balance) and mechanisms of solidarity between its members. Above all, the agency lend to municipalities, departments and regions, at a rate just higher than its own cost of funds – but different depending on the risk profile of each community. Because unlike banks, it is not intended nor need to secure substantial profits."The structure is light, with just 70 people to run," insists Jacques Pélissard, President (UMP) of the Association of Mayors of France.

Shortage of bank credit

"We hope to pass the legislation before the end of the year for the agency operates end of 2012. We are confident because the government views with favor the initiative, "said Jacques Pélissard. The first year, the agency should raise 800 million to one billion euros, sixty communities. Ultimately, elected officials are hoping that a quarter of 20 billion of annual funding needs of the communities will be ensured through it.

"The evolution of credit conditions shows that the agency is essential," says Michel Destot, Mayor (PS) in Grenoble and president of the Association of Mayors of major cities in France. In fact, the problems get worse.Haute-Savoie, St. Gervais-les-Bains had to give up an investment due to lack of adequate bank credit. A survey of the AMF, the local sector banks have responded that in 30% of the total volume requested by the communities. Some German banks come to the rescue, but this is not enough. The problem is more acute than that of toxic loans, which represent only 7 billion on a debt of 160 billion community. The government plans to use the Deposit to remedy the lack of funds.

Barack Obama has heard Warren Buffett. One month after the American billionaire's call to raise taxes of the richest in the United States, Barack Obama will propose on Monday during a speech at the White House – expected at 16:30 French time – a special tax on the income of taxpayers earning over a million dollars a year (about 725,000 euros). The U.S. president should not indicate the precise tax rate that it intends to apply or the amount it hoped to achieve by this. But according to The New York Times, the tax on millionaires only for 0.3% of taxpayers, less than 450,000 of the 144 million returns recorded in 2010.

Dubbed the "rule Buffett," this tax is in terms of reducing the budget deficit that the U.S. president must explain to Congress Monday.Its goal? Ensure that the wealthiest taxpayers pay at least as much taxes as middle-class homes. This is not the case, as pointed out by Warren Buffett this summer, because of certain provisions of the Tax Code.

1200 billion dollars in savings to find

Thus, capital income such as dividends or interest earned by the fund managers are taxed at 15%, while labor incomes are between 10 to 35%. "While the poorer classes and middle classes are fighting for us in Afghanistan, while most Americans struggle to make ends meet month we mega-wealthy continue to benefit from special tax exemptions," wrote Warren Buffett in an article published last month in The New York Times.

This tax should allow Barack Obama to approach a little more of his electoral base of the Democratic Party criticized him his "gifts" to tax the wealthiest people. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives have already announced that he would vote no tax increase.

While the United States must find 1.2 trillion dollars in savings by the end of the year, Barack Obama warned on Saturday the Americans that they would provide "pull their weight" to reduce the budget deficit. And pressed again, the Congress, including Republicans, to adopt his plan for the use of 447 billion dollars. "More games or impasses. More division or delay, "he said during his weekly radio address.

After still closed higher Thursday evening, the U.S. stock markets remain on their momentum on Friday. In early trade, the Dow gained 0.44% to 11.484 points, the Nasdaq is 0.37% to 2617 points and the S & P 500 climbed 0.53% to 1216 points.

Investors are focused on reassuring news from Europe, as the announcement of a new agreement between central banks to provide dollar liquidity to European banks and Japanese. "This program already exists, say the analysts at Aurel BGC. The ECB offered this week, two European banks to dollar liquidity in 7 days "

Suddenly, the "four witches" today is to say the expiration of four types of futures contracts on indices and stocks, "will be addressed, according to Aurel BGC in a more serene.Recent events have reassured investors and market expectations about European officials said after the meeting of the Ecofin support actions ".

U.S. consumer debt and European

At the macroeconomic agenda of the day, the index of consumer sentiment for the month of September is expected this afternoon, 12:00 to 3:55 p.m.. But such macroeconomic indicators may well be once again overshadowed by political events related to the debt crisis and European banks.

Indeed, this Friday as European finance ministers and the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, this exceptional, try to resolve their differences at a meeting of high voltage in Poland payday loan. This is to complete a second plan of aid to Greece, imperative to save the country and the euro area, whose failing health is in turmoil the entire planet.Timothy Geithner has already openly believed that Europeans should inject more funds to avoid a major crisis.

RIM collapses

On the corporate side, Research in Motion (-21.77% to 23.11 dollars), the maker of BlackBerry smartphones, collapsed after publishing quarterly results fell sharply, well below analysts' forecasts.

The rating agency Moody's said Thursday it placed under surveillance notes of the bank UBS (3.42% to 11.80 dollars) with for a potential degradation due to "weaknesses in risk management the group. "

At the heart of the news, Google (0.24% to 543.59 dollars) has purchased additional patents in 1023 the computer company IBM (0.68% to 171.38 dollars) to strengthen its portfolio and to attempt trial to deter intellectual property infringement.Google expects the other hand that the number of Internet users in India to be tripled in three years through improved access to wireless internet and at prices more affordable smartphone, reported on Friday Wall Street Journal.

Boeing (1.59% to 65.34 dollars) could finally respond to the order by Air France-KLM of 110 long-haul aircraft, including 50 firm orders, builders Boeing and European Airbus to ensure the renewal of its fleet.

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