"The markets expect too much from Fed
lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – Unemployment remains very high, growth for this year looks soft (OECD expects U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% in 2010, Ed). Could we expect that?
David Kalfon – It's a real disappointment given the amounts that have been injected into the financial system, that is to say, the $ 800 billion in the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP – Name Secretary to the Treasury of the United States – implemented from September 2008 to address the financial crisis) and the many unconventional actions taken by the U.S. central bank. The difference with the resumption of U.S. corporate profits have rebounded strongly since 2008 is obvious. However, if we analyze the situation correctly, this gap between macroeconomics and microeconomics is not so surprising as that.
To restore their operating margins, companies have been very aggressive in their restructuring costs declined sharply. What was the logical consequence of increasing the rate of unemployment (two years, from about 5% to 10%, Ed). Today, financial markets do not know who to trust. They oscillate between good corporate health and chilling the speech of the U.S. central bank.
Next Wednesday, the Fed should just announce in detail the measures it intends to take to support the economy. What should you expect?
I think that financial markets expect the Fed probably too much and its measures to support the economy. One can wonder about their effectiveness. Indeed, this "Quantitative Easing 2" (monetary easing) is the recognition of the failure of the Quantitative Easing 1 ".This monetary easing is likely the specter of deflation, but at what price? In reality, everything will depend on the tone adopted by the Fed than the amounts it will announce.
If investors and households feel its determination to support the economy, it could anchor inflation expectations in the minds of various economic agents. They will then be convinced that we must invest, borrow and consume now, because tomorrow, inflation will result in higher prices and higher cost of credit to what we enjoy today. A virtuous circle can be a lasting positive impact on the U.S. economy.
Next week will also feature the midterm elections in the United States. What should you expect as well?
If the Republicans win, the constraints on budget spending will be more stringent.From there, the dollar should strengthen the American economy and be penalized in the short term, a weak dollar is helping U.S. exports.
How are financial markets behave?
With these two appointments of monetary policy and fiscal stance, we should expect that financial markets are very volatile. One might wonder with an increase of 13% S & P 500 in a straight line on the last two months how the rates are not already incorporate a favorable outcome. If the news is disappointing, there is no doubt that the U.S. indices will consolidate. However, given the recent behavior of the indices, even with good news, it is not obvious to see the S & P 500 continue to rise unabated.
What attitudes must take investors?
I advise investors to remain relatively cautious and not take excessive risks. After thoroughly enjoyed the upward movement of the markets, and particularly the technology sector, we have decided to take a portion of our earnings and reduce our exposure somewhat action pending announcements next week, leaving to reposition itself quickly once the uncertainty lifted.
